New Mexico Bowl Odds: Marshall vs. Colorado State Betting Pick, Analysis

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in four bowl appearances under coach Doc Holliday. The Colorado State Rams, on the other hand, are 0-2 both SU and ATS in two bowls under coach Mike Bobo. Third place in Conference USA meets third place in the Mountain West when Marshall meets CSU in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday afternoon in Albuquerque.

College football point spread: The Rams opened as 5.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.6-29.8 Rams (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Marshall Thundering Herd can cover the spread

The Herd started off well enough this season, winning six of their first seven games. And the only loss over that span came in a tough game at North Carolina State, which finished 6-2 in ACC play. Marshall then lost four of its last five games, but three of those losses came by a total of eight points, including a 28-27 decision in the season finale against Southern Miss.

The Herd scored a touchdown with just over a minute to go against the Golden Eagles to pull within one point, boldly went for two but came up empty.

On the day, Marshall outgained Southern Miss 382-371 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. Just before that, the Herd lost to Texas-San Antonio 9-7 on a field goal with two seconds left. Marshall has outgained eight of its last 10 opponents.

Why the Colorado State Rams can cover the spread

The Rams also started well this season, winning six of their first eight contests, with one of their losses coming at College Football Playoff qualifier Alabama. Colorado State then lost three straight, although one loss came on a late score at Wyoming, another in heart-breaking fashion in overtime against Boise State. But the Rams concluded their regular season with a 42-14 victory over San Jose State.

Colorado State spotted the Spartans an early touchdown, then scored the game's next 35 points to take control. On the day, the Rams outgained San Jose State 606-339, outrushed the Spartans 301-131 and won time of possession by a 35-25 split.

So Colorado State has outgained and outrushed five of its last eight opponents.

Smart pick

Colorado State ranks 10th in the nation in total offense, but Marshall ranks 24th in total defense. And generally the defense is the smarter bet in matchups like this. Take the points here with the Herd.

College football betting trends

Marshall is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games in December.

Colorado State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games.

The total has gone over in five of Colorado State's last seven games in the postseason.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.