Camellia Bowl Odds: Middle Tennessee vs. Arkansas State Betting Pick, Analysis

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread in six bowl games under coach Rick Stockstill. The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 1-2 both outright and ATS in three bowls under coach Blake Anderson. A .500 team from Conference USA hooks up with a 6-2 outfit from the Sun Belt when Middle Tennessee meets Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday night in Montgomery.

College football point spread: The Red Wolves opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.3-26.7 Red Wolves (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders only sat at 3-5 heading into November, but won three of their last four games, including a 41-10 decision over Old Dominion in the season finale, to make a bowl for the third straight season. Middle Tennessee spotted the Monarchs an early field goal, then scored the next 41 points of the game and covered a 13-point spread.

On the afternoon the Blue Raiders outgained Old Dominion 586-305, made 30 first downs to 14 for the Monarchs and dominated time of possession by a margin of 38-22. So Middle Tennessee has outgained three of its last four opponents and outrushed each of its last four foes, averaging 36 points per game in the process.

The Raiders' recent run coincided with the return of junior quarterback Brent Stockstill, the coach's kid who missed six games with a bad shoulder.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves can cover the spread

The Wolves started 1-2 this season, then won six of their next seven games before falling in their season finale to Troy 32-25. Nonetheless Arkansas State is playing in a bowl for the seventh straight season.

The Red Wolves battled back from a two-score deficit midway through the fourth quarter to take a 25-24 lead on the Trojans with a minute and a half to go. Unfortunately, they let Troy drive 72 yards to a game-winning touchdown with just 17 seconds left on the clock.

Arkansas State actually outgained the Trojans 606-293 and won time of possession by a 34-26 split. But the Wolves missed two field goals and lost the turnover battle 3-1, basically resulting in a minus-16 point differential.

ASU has outgained each of its last seven opponents and outrushed each of its last six foes.

Smart pick

Arkansas State gets the check mark on offense, but Middle Tennessee owns the better defense. Plus, the Blue Raiders are simply a different (better) team with Stockstill back in the saddle. Smart money here likes Middle Tennessee.

College football betting trends

Arkansas State is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games against Middle Tennessee.

Middle Tennessee is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in its last six games after a win.

The total has gone under in five of Arkansas State's last six games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.