New Orleans Bowl Odds: Troy vs. North Texas Betting Pick, Analysis

Underdogs are a good bet over recent New Orleans Bowl matchups, winning five of the last eight games outright. Might that bode well for the North Texas Mean Green heading into their New Orleans Bowl tussle with the Troy Trojans on Saturday afternoon at the Superdome?

College football point spread: The Trojans opened as 5.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 38.6-25.8 Trojans (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Troy Trojans can cover the spread

The Trojans ride a six-game winning streak into this New Orleans Bowl, after ending their regular season with a 32-25 victory over Arkansas State to earn a share of the Sun Belt championship. Troy trailed the Red Wolves by a point with just over a minute to go but drove 75 yards for a game-winning touchdown, a Brandon Silvers connection with Deondre Douglas with 17 seconds left.

On the night, the Trojans actually got outgained by Arkansas State by a 2/1 margin, but they got a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown from Marcus Jones, his third of this season, and later a 100-yard pick-six by Jones. Troy also won the turnover battle 3-1, resulting in a plus-10 point differential.

The Trojans have outgained six of their last seven opponents and outrushed eight of their last 10 foes. They're also 3-0 ATS their last three times out.

Why the North Texas Mean Green can cover the spread

The Mean Green won five games in a row through November to earn a spot in the Conference USA championship game but came up short in a 41-17 loss to a pretty good Florida Atlantic outfit. UNT, as an 11-point dog, fell down to the Owls 34-0 in the third quarter, pulled to within a sniff of the spread at 34-17 early in the fourth quarter but could get no closer.

North Texas actually went 7-0 in C-USA play this season against teams not named Florida Atlantic.

The Mean Green have outgained seven of their last 10 opponents, five of them by 100 yards or more. They're also 6-3 ATS over their last nine games.

Smart pick

North Texas ranks 19th in the country in total offense at 467 yards per game, but Troy ranks 27th in total defense. And in matchups like this, the better defense is usually the better bet. So, despite the recent New Orleans Bowl trend toward dogs, smart money here takes the Trojans.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in three of Troy's last four games against North Texas.

North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

The total has gone under in seven of Troy's last 10 games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.