
Week 14 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday
Those tasked with NFL picks or playing the odds and over/under marks in Week 14 aren't suffering from endless divisional games yet.
That doesn't make the schedule any easier to navigate.
In fact, there's an element of the unknown when it comes to cross-conference games like a showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars or matchups we don't see often at all, such as a heavyweight bout between the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams.
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Put another way, Week 14 looks outstanding for fans, albeit tricky for bettors. Let's provide an assist to the latter by looking at the updated lines and projections.
NFL Week 14 Schedule, Odds
Chicago at Cincinnati (-6.5) | O/U 38.5
Detroit at Tampa Bay (E) | O/U
Green Bay (-3.5) at Cleveland | O/U 40.5
Indianapolis at Buffalo | O/U
Minnesota (-3) at Carolina | O/U 41
Oakland at Kansas City (-4) | O/U 47
San Francisco at Houston (-3) | O/U 42.5
Dallas (-4) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 41.5
N.Y. Jets (-1) at Denver | O/U 41
Tennessee (-3) at Arizona | O/U 44
Washington at L.A. Chargers (-6) | O/U 46
Philadelphia (-2.5) at L.A. Rams | O/U 50.5
Seattle at Jacksonville (-3) | O/U 39.5
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-7) | O/U
New England (-10.5) at Miami | O/U
Chicago at Cincinnati (-6.5)
Most opponents would view the Cincinnati Bengals as a weakened team capable of exploiting in Week 14.
After all, the Bengals come out of a Monday Night Football loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers down several key players, including Vontaze Burfict and Dre Kirkpatrick on defense, as well as starting running back Joe Mixon.
These Chicago Bears, though, don't have the ammunition to make something special happen on the road in the cold.
The Bears are a three-win team for a reason. After falling into the Mike Glennon trap early in the season, the franchise now has hope for a brighter future around rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, though he hasn't shied away from what continues to hurt the team, per Larry Mayer of the team's official website:
Though he has a strong running game behind him, Trubisky has thrown for more than 200 yards in a game once over eight appearances, including a current six-game losing skid. Now he'll search for answers on the road against a 34-sack Bengals defense featuring names such as Carlos Dunlap.
And though these Bengals are down key players on a short week, it's important to keep in mind this stout defense still limited the explosive Steelers to 23 points and change-of-pace back Giovani Bernard took over the backfield and averaged 5.9 yards per carry.
More than anything, the Bengals are at home, have the better quarterback and a matchup nightmare by the name of A.J. Green.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Bears 14
Green Bay (-3.5) at Cleveland
Bettors have an interesting dilemma on their hands here with a game between the Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns.
Do the Packers, on the road and in the cold, take down the Browns without Aaron Rodgers? Or do the Browns rally against a struggling opponent, slash playoff hopes by playing the spoiler and win their first game of the season?
The fact this line is so small says it all.
The Packers have lost two out of their last three, the exception needing overtime to beat a four-win Tampa Bay team. They've won only two games since Week 6 and backup quarterback Brett Hundley has thrown all of five touchdowns against eight interceptions on the year.
These Browns haven't looked overly impressive while undergoing a bevy of changes in recent weeks, but what has been interesting so far is the sudden return and explosiveness of wideout Josh Gordon.
JJ Zachariason of numberFire illustrated this point in a notable way:
Gordon is a matchup nightmare for a team like the Packers, especially considering the Browns have a solid line up front ready to keep the pocket clean. If Green Bay had more than 29 sacks on the year this wouldn't look like such a talking point, but the Packers rank 26th against the pass for a reason.
Given Green Bay's struggles under center and the sheer element of the spoiler realizing it has one or two last chances to win a game, look for the Browns to pull off a shocking late drive to steal this otherwise dull affair.
Prediction: Browns 27, Packers 20
Tennessee (-3) at Arizona
Here's a fun one for bettors to exploit.
The Tennessee Titans have quietly been one of the better teams in football for the entirety of the season, drumming up eight wins in impressive fashion considering quarterback Marcus Mariota had an injury issue and has otherwise been in a slump.
Yet here they are, winners of six of their last seven and boasting victories against strong teams such as Jacksonville and Seattle. Mariota might only have 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, but few teams, if any, have a better backfield combo than DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.
Contrast this with the Arizona Cardinals, a team that hasn't responded well to an injury at quarterback and didn't look equipped to handle adversity at all. Of the team's five wins, four of them have come against miserable Indianapolis, San Francisco and Tampa Bay teams.
Arizona's defense has collapsed under the strain of trying to prop up an offense led by guys such as Blaine Gabbert to the point it sits 29th at 25.8 points allowed per game.
While the Cardinals search for answers, the Titans and head coach Mike Mularkey aren't shying away from what they plan to do.
"We've got pretty fresh backs," Mularkey said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "It's not like you're going to get a guy who has 30, 35 carries. We've got guys that when they're in there, they're pretty fresh. After four quarters, that can start to wear you down if you've got fresh running backs."
Road contest or not, the Titans feel like a team rounding into form ahead of the playoffs. A brutal ground attack won't stop carrying the team now, especially with the understanding the Cardinals are dangerous simply due to the spoiler factor.
Prediction: Titans 20, Cardinals 17

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