Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen: Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

The Navy Midshipmen beat the Army Black Knights 14 times in a row heading into last year's matchup, but Army finally broke through and beat Navy 21-17. Can the Knights make it two in a row over the Middies when the teams meet for the 118th time Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia?

College football point spread: The Midshipmen opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark  (line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.0-27.7 Black Knights (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Army Black Knights can cover the spread

The Knights won six games in a row, their longest winning streak since 1996, before falling three weeks ago in a thriller at a pretty good North Texas team 52-49. Army fell down to the Mean Green 21-7, tied the score at 28-28, 35-35, 42-42 and 49-49 but lost on a field goal with five seconds left.

On the day, the Knights racked up 534 yards on the ground and held a 34-26 time-of-possession advantage. They just couldn't come up with a defensive stop when they needed one.

Army has since had the last couple of weeks off. On the season, the Knights have outgained nine of their 11 opponents and outrushed all of them except one: Ohio State. Army hasn't won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996, but will with a victory Saturday.

Why the Navy Midshipmen can cover the spread

The Midshipmen began this season well enough, winning their first five games, then finished by losing five of their last six. But those five losses came against some pretty good teams, including still-undefeated Central Florida, Memphis and Notre Dame, three by one score or fewer and none by more than 10 points.

Navy fell to Houston two weeks ago 24-14. The Midshipmen spotted the Cougars the first touchdown, rallied to lead 14-7 well into the third quarter but gave up the last 17 points of the game and missed the cover as six-point dogs.

Just before that, Navy led the Irish in South Bend 17-10 well into the third quarter before giving up the last 14 points to lose 24-17. For the season, the Midshipmen have outrushed each of their 11 opponents, eight of them by 100 yards or more.

Smart pick

The worm may be turning in this rivalry. Not only did Army win this matchup last year, it's 5-1 against the spread over the last six meetings, keeping almost every battle close. The smart money here gives the nod to the Knights.

College football betting trends

Army is 3-0 ATS in its last three games against Navy.

The total has gone under in Army's last 11 games against Navy.

The total has gone under in 13 of Navy's last 16 games in December.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.