Auburn vs. Georgia: Preview and Predictions for SEC Championship 2017
Possibly the best rematch on the college football marquee for Week 14 takes place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta as the No. 2 Auburn Tigers face the No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship.
Auburn won the first meeting between the two sides back on November 11 at Jordan-Hare Stadium to knock the Bulldogs off the top of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Since their only defeat of the season, the Bulldogs have rebounded with blowout victories over Georgia Tech and Kentucky. Auburn has improved its resume since the middle of November with a win over Alabama that also took the Crimson Tide out of the driver's seat in the College Football Playoff rankings.
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Not only is Saturday's SEC Championship the second meeting in less than a month between the two rivals, it's also the first time in their series that they'll play at the SEC Championship, per the SEC Network on Twitter:
There's a good chance Saturday's game won't be as one-sided as the November affair. In that game, Auburn got out to a 30-7 lead and Georgia abandoned the run, which is arguably its biggest strength on both sides of the ball.
Georgia's running back duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel combined for 20 carries, while freshman quarterback Jake Fromm attempted 28 passes.
In order to keep Auburn off the field and gain momentum for itself, Georgia has to establish the run game early and often, and as Chubb and Michel start to find a rhythm and take the attention of the Auburn defense away from Fromm, the Bulldogs should work Fromm into the contest by opening up the passing game with a few play fakes.
Chubb has carried the ball more than 10 occasions in every game he's played in this season, while Michel has seen less of the ball, but he's made the most of his opportunities. For example, he only had six carries against Florida on October 28, but he ran the senior ran for 137 yards.
You could argue Auburn will follow the same strategy on offense, but it may use quarterback Jarrett Stidham more with Kerryon Johnson's status up in the air. Despite Johnson being a game-time decision, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is preparing for him to play, per SEC Country's Lauren Shute:
Stidham has thrown for close to 700 more yards than Fromm has this season, and the Baylor transfer has put together five straight 200-yard performances, while Fromm has reached the 200-yard barrier once in the same span.
If Georgia is able to silence Auburn's rushing attack regardless of if Johnson plays or not, Stidham will be called upon to make a few big throws. If he hits a big completion early, Stidham's confidence will grow, and it will give the Tigers more opportunities to pounce throughout the contest.
With the game expected to be close, the kicking game will be vital on both sides of the field. Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship is perfect on extra points and has made 13 of his 15 field-goal attempts, but both of those misses have come against ranked opponents.
Auburn's Daniel Carlson has missed six of his 27 field-goal attempts, but he's hit twice from 54 yards, while Blankenship's long of the season is 49 yards. If the game comes down to the final seconds, Auburn would have more room to work with for its kicker.
If you're looking for a difference-maker on defense, Auburn's Jeff Holland is one of the best pass-rushers in the SEC, and he's getting plenty of attention for his skill set. ESPN's Marcus Spears told Tom Green of AL.com that Holland has the potential to be an impact player at the next level:
"He's a pass-rusher; he's an outside linebacker who's going to make a lot of money one day doing what he's doing because he's a technical rusher, but he's big, and he's physical. When you mesh those traits, it can be special," Spears said.
Dick Butkus Award finalist Roquan Smith resides in the Georgia defense, and he's as much of a force as Holland. Smith has 100 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. The junior could cause all sorts of terror against the Auburn offensive line, just like he did at Jordan-Hare Stadium when he made 12 solo tackles.
If you go up and down the rosters, it's hard to find a significant gap in talent at every position, which is why the SEC Championship will come down to the fourth quarter. Stidham will probably handle a game-winning drive better than Fromm since he's faced more pressure and runs his offense better. That could be the difference on Saturday, especially if the result is determined by the final drive.
Prediction: Auburn 20, Georgia 17
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
All statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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