Bowl Projections 2017: Predictions for CFP Championship and Biggest Matchups
The College Football Playoff is close at hand, and once the conference championships are concluded Saturday night, the CFP ranking committee will make its final decision on which four teams will play for the national championship.
Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma and Wisconsin were in the top four spots in the latest rankings released Tuesday night. Alabama was the first team out at No. 5, followed by Georgia at No. 6.
Clemson meets Miami for the ACC title, and Auburn meets Georgia for the SEC title, with the two highest-ranked sides in the country favored to come out on top.
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Defending national champion Clemson lost one midseason game at Syracuse, but it looked sharp in every other game. Miami had a couple of huge late-season wins against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but a loss in its regular-season finale at Pittsburgh suggests it may be sliding.
Auburn hammered Georgia in November, and while the Tigers may not match their 40-17 margin of victory, they should win again.
Look for Oklahoma to get the best of TCU in the Big 12 title game and for undefeated Wisconsin to handle 10-2 Ohio State.
Ohio State is actually a six-point favorite over the Badgers on OddsShark.com, largely because the Buckeyes have a far more explosive offense than Wisconsin. The biggest advantage is at quarterback, where J.T. Barrett has 33 touchdown passes and nine rushing scores. Alex Hornibrook has thrown 21 touchdown passes for Wisconsin and is a fine leader, but he is not as explosive or as productive as Barrett.
So, the four teams at the top of the rankings should not change. But the committee has one job: putting the four best teams in the playoffs.
Does the committee really believe there are four teams better than Alabama? Not more deserving, but better. The answer is probably not, and Alabama could find itself in the playoff.
Oklahoma could be vulnerable. While they likely have the best offense in the nation with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, they are not an adequate defensive team. They have given up 31 points or more five times this season and surrendered a season-high 52 points to Oklahoma State.
The committee will come out with final rankings that place Auburn in the top spot, followed by Clemson, Wisconsin and Alabama. That will set up a rematch between Auburn and the Crimson Tide in one semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, leaving Wisconsin and Clemson in the Rose Bowl.
Cotton Bowl, December 29
Oklahoma (11-1) vs. UCF (11-0)
Oklahoma won't be happy at its fate, but the Sooners will find a way to come up with a winning effort behind Mayfield, who has thrown for 4,097 yards and 37 TD passes.
Prediction: Oklahoma 49, UCF 42
Fiesta Bowl, December 30
USC (11-2) vs. Penn State (10-2)
These two teams put on a brilliant show in last year's Rose Bowl before USC came away with a 52-49 victory.
While USC quarterback Sam Darnold and Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley will light it up again, it will not reach the scoring heights it did a year ago. However, the Pac-12 champion Trojans will find a way to win one more time.
Prediction: USC 41, Penn State 37
Orange Bowl, December 30
Ohio State (10-2) vs. Miami (10-1)
The Buckeyes have a powerful running attack, with J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber in addition to Barrett's exploits.
The Hurricanes have a powerful runner of their own in Travis Homer, and Malik Rosier is a strong quarterback.
Miami is not about to back down here.
Prediction: Miami 24, Ohio State 23
Peach Bowl, January 1
Georgia (11-1) vs. TCU (10-2)
Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm is a capable leader and has 1,990 passing yards and 19 TD passes. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are both explosive running backs who can take over a game.
TCU is a balanced offensive team, with quarterback Kenny Hill, running back Darius Anderson and wideouts John Diarse and Jalen Reagor doing most of the damage.
It will be tough for the Bulldogs to stop the Horned Frogs.
Prediction: TCU 37, Georgia 29
Rose Bowl, January 1
Clemson (11-1) vs. Wisconsin (12-0)
Dabo Swinney's team is battled-tested and focused, and the Tigers are not going to be intimidated by a Big Ten team with an undefeated record.
Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant is not Deshaun Watson, but he has thrown for 2,426 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he also has rushed for 639 yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Travis Etienne is a game-changing player and has 720 rushing yards and 12 TDs.
Wisconsin plays shut-down defense, though, and running back Jonathan Taylor has 1,806 rushing yards and 13 TDs.
Look for the Badgers to come up with the upset and advance to the championship game.
Prediction: Wisconsin 21, Clemson 16
Sugar Bowl, January 1
Auburn (10-2) vs. Alabama (11-1)
Alabama will take full advantage of its reprieve. The Tigers may have gotten the best of the Crimson Tide while playing on their home field, but they won't be able to do that at the Sugar Bowl.
Jalen Hurts understands how to play his best football on the biggest stage, and he has a slight edge over Auburn's Jarrett Stidham. Look for the Crimison Tide defense to perform much better than it did at Auburn.
Alabama finds a way to win here and beats Wisconsin in the national title game a week later.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Auburn 16
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