NFL Picks Week 13: Over/Under Vegas Lines, Expert Predictions and Odds

Experts and normal NFL fans find themselves in the same boat heading into Week 13—choppy waters await. 

We're at the point of the season where the spoiler dives into the waters and starts making a weekly line even harder to navigate. It's not as simple as looking at a matchup anymore and siding with an obvious favorite when a bad team will play harder than usual while trying to play the spoiler. 

This late-season development as the calendar turns to December is a big part of the reason oddsmakers out of Las Vegas don't have many double-digit lines on the weekly menu. 

Speaking of the menu, let's give it a glance over and point out some interesting items and expert predictions.  

NFL Week 13 Schedule, Odds

Washington at Dallas (-2.5) | O/U 44

Denver at Miami (E) | O/U 38

Detroit at Baltimore (-3) | O/U 43

Houston at Tennessee (-7) | O/U 43.5

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-9.5) | O/U 40.5

Kansas City (-4.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 43.5

Minnesota at Atlanta (-2.5) | O/U 47

New England (-8.5) at Buffalo | O/U 49

San Francisco at Chicago (-4.5) | O/U 39

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (E) | O/U

Cleveland at L.A. Chargers (-13) | O/U 42.5

Carolina at New Orleans (-4.5) | O/U 48

L.A. Rams (-6) at Arizona | O/U 45.5

N.Y. Giants at Oakland (-8.5) | O/U 41.5

Philadelphia (-6) at Seattle | O/U 48

Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Cincinnati | O/U 43

Detroit at Baltimore (-3)

Most don't seem confident in picking how this one turns out. 

Over at NFL Pick Watch, which records the picks of more than 100 experts, just 54 percent of those polled side with the Baltimore Ravens at home against the Detroit Lions. 

But the "at home" part of the equation might play a huge part here. The Ravens have won two games in a row, too, but the offense is simply unimpressive with Joe Flacco sitting at nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions and the defense has feasted on easy matchups. 

It's important to stress that last point while making a pick on this game. Here's a list of quarterbacks the Ravens have defeated on the way to a 6-5 record: 

• Andy Dalton
• DeShone Kizer
• EJ Manuel
• Matt Moore
• Brett Hundley
• Tom Savage

So yes, those making picks here should have plenty of confidence in Matthew Stafford and his 21 touchdowns against six interceptions while spreading it around to the point six different players have multiple touchdown catches. 

Detroit's defense has been a predictable up-and-down affair all year, but most haven't had problems stuttering Flacco. It's the same story here, especially once Stafford helps the Lions to a lead and forces Flacco into a predictable attack. 

Prediction: Lions 24, Ravens 20

Houston at Tennessee (-7)

When it comes to picks, experts fall in line with the Tennessee Titans over the Houston Texans on a 98-percent clip. 

It isn't unreasonable to think those playing the spread should do the same. 

The Titans have quietly won five of their last six games to sit on a 7-4 mark. Marcus Mariota has had his turnover struggles (nine touchdowns, 12 picks), but he's flanked by a stellar rushing attack featuring Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray. The former has 520 yards and three scores on a 4.6 average, the latter 452 and five on 3.5. 

Meanwhile, the Texans have imploded, dropping four of their last five, including a stumble against the miserable Indianapolis Colts. We could throw stats at the wall to illustrate the point, but a comment from quarterback Tom Savage speaks volumes. 

"I'm really frustrated, to be honest with you," Savage said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "There's really no words for it. I don't want to go out there and throw picks. That's not my goal. It's called the NFL. You're not going to win games turning the ball over."

Savage is up to seven fumbles lost and five interceptions over six games and his offense have scored less than 20 points in three out of its last five games. It's a mark that won't work against a strong Titans rushing attack, to say the least. 

Back in Week 4, the Texans won this matchup in a rout, 57-14—but Deshaun Watson isn't walking back through that door, neither are the Texans' injured defensive stars, and Mariota should play the whole game. 

Prediction: Titans 30, Texans 17

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-9.5)

Those aforementioned Colts sure make life easy in Week 13. 

Just ask the experts, who side with the Jacksonville Jaguars at home against them in 100-percent fashion. 

It's not hard to see why—the Colts have won three games this year and exactly none of them have looked impressive, not with three-point escapes against terrible teams like San Francisco and Cleveland and a six-point win against a Houston team starting Savage. 

The Colts don't threaten through the air with Jacoby Brissett, have a running game averaging 3.5 yards per carry and a defense ranked dead last while coughing up 27.3 points per game. 

Now they're walking into a contest against a team that already beat them 27-0 this year. 

It helps that the Jaguars are good enough to compensate for Blake Bortles under center—an impressive sentence on its lonesome.

Also impressive is the play calling from a coaching staff downright surprising teams: 

But the real story, of course, is the defense boasting 41 sacks, 14 interceptions and 15 forced fumbles, recovering 11 of them. For comparison's sake, the Jaguars rank first in the same aforementioned category, allowing only 15.3 points per game. 

This one should look quite a bit like the first encounter between these AFC South rivals, where the Jaguars hit home on 10 sacks while the offense rushed for 5.1 yards per carry and two scores.

Maybe they don't hit the 10-sack mark again, but the Jaguars don't need to overkill in such a manner again to beat a team that doesn't have the ammunition necessary to pull off a spoiler upset. 

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Colts 10

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.