Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Buffalo Bills (5-5) have ended the Nathan Peterman experiment for now as they head to Kansas City (6-4) to face the Chiefs on Sunday as big road underdogs. The rookie Peterman threw five interceptions in his first start last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, resulting in a 54-24 loss.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 35.2-14.4 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Bills can cover the spread

There is no doubt that Tyrod Taylor is a better quarterback at this point in his career than Peterman, although that could definitely change down the road. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has decided to go back to Taylor in an effort to try to salvage their season following three consecutive losses.

The Bills looked like they had a good shot to return to the postseason for the first time since 1999 following a 5-2 start, and they will take on a Chiefs team that is struggling just as much.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is 12-4 straight up in its last 16 early-afternoon games, and the team will certainly be happy to be back home at Arrowhead Stadium after losing three of four on the road. The Chiefs are coming off consecutive losses away from home to NFC East teams, and they will now play two straight AFC East opponents.

The Chiefs already own a win over the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots in the season opener and have gone 8-1 SU and against the spread in their last nine games versus teams from that division.

Smart pick

This is a huge game for both teams, with Kansas City in a much more comfortable spot atop the AFC West and playing at home. McDermott's decision to bench Taylor may prove to be his worst of the season, as he may have lost his team as a result.

Regardless, the Chiefs know the key here is holding Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy in check. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows all about McCoy's impact from their days together with the Philadelphia Eagles. Bet the Chiefs to cover in a rout.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in 10 of the Bills' last 14 games against the Chiefs.

The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road against the Chiefs.

The Bills are 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games after consecutive losses.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.