Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

The Alabama Crimson Tide own the edge in the recent rivalry with the Auburn Tigers, winning seven of the last nine meetings outright, going 4-2 against the spread over the last six. In an Iron Bowl battle that will decide a berth in the SEC championship game, and perhaps much more, Alabama meets Auburn on Saturday afternoon at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.4-32.4 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide reached 11-0 on the season with a 56-0 victory in a scrimmage against FCS Mercer last week. Alabama drove 75, 65, 98, 40 and 49 yards for touchdowns on its first five possessions and later added a fourth-quarter score to cover a 50-point spread.

The Crimson Tide outgained the Bears 530-161, with 265 yards on the ground and 265 through the air. So Alabama has now outgained and outrushed every opponent this season except one, LSU, and it won that game anyway.

Two years ago, the Tide won the Iron Bowl 29-13 and covered as 14-point favorites when Derrick Henry broke free for a touchdown with less than a minute to go. Last year Alabama beat Auburn 30-12 but missed covering an inflated 20-point spread because two early turnovers led directly to six Auburn points.

Alabama remains atop the College Football Playoff rankings, and an Iron Bowl victory would almost guarantee them a spot.

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their last four times out, following their 42-14 victory over Louisiana-Monroe last week. Auburn broke an early 7-7 tie with a 28-0 run into the fourth quarter, although it came up a bit short of covering as a 38-point favorite.

On the day, the Tigers outgained the Warhawks 552-333 and won the ground battle 317-116. So Auburn has now outgained each of its last four opponents by 150 yards or more and outrushed every opponent this season except Clemson.

Two weeks ago, the Tigers produced one of the most impressive performances of this college football season, gouging then-No. 1 Georgia 40-17.

At 9-2 overall, this game is do-or-die for Auburn; win, and they go to the SEC championship game in what would be a rematch against those same Bulldogs; lose, and it's another meaningless bowl game against some Big Ten also-ran.

Smart pick

The Crimson Tide dominated the last two Iron Bowls, but this is the best Tigers team since the national championship outfit of 2010. This game is up for grabs, and the home dog looks awfully tempting.

College football betting trends

Auburn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games at home in November.

The total has gone under in 12 of Auburn's last 14 games in Week 13.

Alabama is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road against teams with winning records.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.