USF Bulls vs. UCF Knights Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

The South Florida Bulls hold the edge in the recent rivalry with the UCF Knights, going 6-2 both straight up and against the spread over the last eight meetings, including wins/covers the last two seasons. In the game that will decide a berth in the AAC championship game and possibly a spot in a New Year's Day bowl, South Florida takes on Central Florida on Friday afternoon in Orlando.

College football point spread: The Knights opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 45.1-37.0 Knights (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the USF Bulls can cover the spread

The Bulls stumbled a few weeks ago, taking a loss to Houston, but are 2-0 since after tipping Tulsa last Thursday 27-20. USF spotted the Golden Hurricane an early touchdown, then scored three touchdowns in five minutes to take control. The Bulls led by at least two scores for most of the rest of the game, finally securing the victory with a defensive stop at their own 30-yard line in the final minute.

On the evening, South Florida outgained Tulsa 421-357 and outrushed the Hurricane 279-166. But the Bulls helped keep the game close by turning the ball over twice in Tulsa territory, including an interception in the end zone, and had a blocked punt, which led directly to a Hurricane field goal.

South Florida has now outgained each of its 10 opponents this season, seven of them by 100 or more yards, and outrushed nine of 10 foes.

Why the UCF Knights can cover the spread

The Knights reached 10-0 on the season with a 45-19 triumph at Temple last week. UCF trailed the Owls in the second quarter 10-7, then used a 24-3 run to take a 31-13 lead into halftime. The Knights then scored the first 14 points out of the locker room on their way to an easy cover as 13-point favorites.

On the day, UCF actually got outgained by Temple 397-384. But they won the turnover battle 5-0, turning four of those turnovers into 24 points, and much of the yardage the Knights defense gave up came while protecting a big lead.

Central Florida has now outgained nine of its 10 opponents this season, eight of them by at least 100 yards.

Smart pick

The Knights own the edge on offense, but the Bulls own an edge on defense. Also, there's a possibility of distraction at UCF, with reports of coach Scott Frost's impending departure. Smart money here takes the points with South Florida.

College football betting trends

South Florida is 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games against Central Florida.

The total has gone under in three of South Florida's last four games against Central Florida.

Central Florida is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games on a Friday.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.