Miami Hurricanes vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

The Miami Hurricanes own a huge advantage in the recent series with the Pittsburgh Panthers, winning 18 of the last 20 meetings outright, including 10 of the last 11, going 5-1 against the spread over the last six. Can Miami continue that dominance, remain undefeated on the season and cover two touchdowns Friday afternoon at Heinz Field?

College football point spread: The Hurricanes opened as 14-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 40.3-20.6 Hurricanes (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

The Hurricanes stretched their FBS-best winning streak to 15 games last week with a 44-28 victory over Virginia. Miami, coming off that huge win over Notre Dame the week previous, were trailing the Cavaliers 14-0 in the first quarter and 28-14 in the third. But, sparked by a defensive score, the Hurricanes stormed to a 30-0 run to finish the game and remain very much alive in the battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

On the day, Miami basically got beat on the stats sheet, but the defense pitched a shutout over the last 27 minutes and held Virginia to just 55 yards rushing for the game. The Hurricanes have now outrushed their last three opponents, which also include Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, by a per-game average of 201-89.

Miami is 10-0 and already headed toward an ACC championship game showdown with Clemson. But if the Hurricanes want to make the CFP they cannot afford a slip-up this week.

Why the Pittsburgh Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers reached 4-5 on the season a few weeks ago, but have lost their last two games by a combined nine points. Two weeks ago Pitt gave up a fourth-quarter lead and fell to North Carolina 34-31, and they did the same thing last week in a 20-14 loss to Virginia Tech.

The Panthers trailed the Hokies early 7-0 but scratched back to take a 14-13 lead early in the fourth quarter. Pitt then fell down by a score but used a long pass play to reach the Virginia Tech 1-yard line in the final minute. Unfortunately, the Panthers came up empty on four plays from there.

On the day, Pitt got outgained by the Hokies, but only by a margin of 375-366. Two Panthers turnovers led directly to 10 Virginia Tech points, and Pitt also missed a short field goal. The Panthers have actually outrushed three of their last four opponents, going 3-1 ATS in the process.

Smart pick

Miami has won a bunch of close games this season, while Pitt has lost several. If the Panthers can just run the ball some and avoid the turnovers, they'll keep this one close. Weather could also play a factor. The Hurricanes will probably win this game, but the smart betting choice is probably Pitt plus the points.

College football betting trends

Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against Pittsburgh.

The total has gone over in three of Miami's last four games against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games at home.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.