Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Baltimore Ravens (4-5) return from their bye week to visit the Green Bay Packers (5-4) this Sunday as small road favorites.

Despite playing his best game of the season for the Packers in a 23-16 road win over the Chicago Bears last week, books are still not buying into quarterback Brett Hundley, who is expected to play despite a sore hamstring.

NFL point spread: The Ravens opened as three-point favorites; the total was 38 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 21.2-19.6 Packers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens have a clear edge at quarterback with Joe Flacco under center even though he has not played like a former Super Bowl-winning player this season.

You can also make an argument that Baltimore's John Harbaugh is a better head coach than Green Bay's Mike McCarthy even though both have helped their respective teams win a Vince Lombardi Trophy.

The Ravens have gone 12-3 straight up and against the spread in their last 15 games following a bye, and Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for that preparation.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Other than the post-bye week betting trend, most of the others favor the Packers in this spot. They have won five of the past six meetings with Baltimore both SU and ATS, taking four straight in the series at Lambeau Field as well.

Green Bay is also a solid 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 home games against teams with losing records and proved last week Hundley is capable of playing better than he did in his first two starts replacing Aaron Rodgers.

Hundley will be motivated to earn his first home win here.

Smart pick

The biggest betting trend supporting the home underdogs in this matchup is the fact the Ravens are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.

While the Packers scored just 17 points each in home losses to the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions with Hundley under center, Baltimore is worse than both of those teams.

In fact, the Ravens lost 27-24 at home to the Bears in Week 6, and they will fall to 0-3 versus NFC North teams if they drop the game at Green Bay on Sunday.

NFL betting trends

The Ravens are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games against the Packers.

The total has gone over in 13 of the Packers' last 16 games.

The Ravens are 12-3 SU and ATS in their last 15 games after a bye.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.