TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

The TCU Horned Frogs are 24-10 over their last three-plus Big 12 seasons, but one team that's puzzled them is the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Frogs are only 2-3 straight up in their last five meetings with the Raiders and 1-4 against the spread. TCU hopes to avoid adding to those trends when it takes on Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon in Lubbock.

College football point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 40.8-30.4 Horned Frogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs are hoping to rebound this week after falling at Oklahoma last week 38-20. TCU drove its second possession of the game 75 yards for a touchdown and a 7-3 lead but let things slip away from there and missed ATS as a six-point 'dog.

On the night the Frogs accumulated 424 yards of offense, but a miss on a short field goal when the game was 10-7 led to a Sooners touchdown and TCU never recovered.

Prior to last week the Frogs had outgained each of their previous four opponents, and outrushed each of their previous nine foes.

At 5-2 in conference play, with wins over Oklahoma State and West Virginia, TCU still controls its own destiny, as far as making the Big 12 championship game is concerned. Win this week, and next week against Baylor, and the Frogs are in.

Why the Texas Tech Red Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders just put a halt to a four-game losing streak with a 38-24 victory over Baylor last week. Texas Tech took an early 7-0 lead when Keke Coutee returned the opening kickoff 92 yards for a touchdown, and stretched that to 21-7 at the half. The Raiders later added a score on a fumble return and eventually covered a 10-point spread.

On the day Texas Tech was beaten on the statsheet but turned four Bears turnovers into 17 points.

Two weeks ago the Red Raiders outgained Kansas State by over 100 yards but gave up a game-tying score with under a minute to go and lost in overtime 42-35.

At 5-5 overall Texas Tech needs a win this week or next week against Texas to become bowl eligible.

Smart pick

TCU still has a lot to play for, and should win this game, considering Texas Tech's two Big 12 victories have come against Kansas and Baylor. And playing on the road means the spread is a little friendlier toward the Frogs. Smart money here gives the points.

College football betting trends

TCU is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in its last four games on the road against Texas Tech.

The visiting team is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games in this matchup.

Texas Tech is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games in November.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.