Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes: Odds, Betting Pick

The Ohio State Buckeyes beat the Michigan State Spartans seven times in a row not too long ago, but MSU is trying to turn that trend around, winning three of the last six matchups outright and going 5-3 against the spread over the last eight. In a game that might decide a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan State meets Ohio State on Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe.

College football point spread: The Buckeyes opened as 15.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 40.2-22.7 Buckeyes (college football picks on every game.

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Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

The Spartans rebounded from that overtime loss at Northwestern two weeks ago to upset Penn State last week 27-24. Michigan State trailed most of that long game, and 24-21 into the fourth quarter. But kicker Matt Coghlin hit one short field goal to tie the score, and (thanks to a roughing penalty) another one at the buzzer for the win.

On the day, the Spartans racked up 474 yards on offense, as quarterback Brian Lewerke hit on 33 of 56 throws for 400 of those yards and a pair of touchdowns. Michigan State also converted 10-for-18 on third downs, earned a 34-26 time of possession advantage and won the turnover battle 3-1.

The Spartans have now outgained eight of their nine opponents this season, even in their two defeats.

At 5-1 in Big Ten play, Michigan State is tied with Ohio State for first place in the East Division. The Spartans would be in super shape with a win Saturday, considering their last two games are against Maryland and Rutgers.

Why the Ohio State Buckeyes can cover the spread

The Buckeyes are hoping to rebound this week, after getting their butts kicked at Iowa last week 55-24. OSU fell down 7-0 on a Hawkeyes pick-six eight seconds into the game, battled to a 17-17 tie late in the second quarter, but faded hard from there, as Iowa scored 38 of the last 45 points.

Ohio State was coming off that crazy 39-38 victory over Penn State two weeks ago.

Prior to last week, the Buckeyes had outgained each of their previous six opponents, all by at least 240 yards, and outrushed their previous eight foes.

With two losses this season Ohio State is probably out of the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff. But the Buckeyes can still win the East and the Big Ten, and they're certainly trying to remove that nasty taste of last week's defeat from their mouths.

Smart pick

Michigan State just pulled off a big upset at home but could be ripe for a letdown on the road. Ohio State just got humbled badly on the road but might be geared for a rebound effort at home. The smarter money here probably bets the Buckeyes.

College football betting trends

The visiting team is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games in this matchup.

The total has gone under in Michigan State's last three games on the road against Ohio State.

Ohio State is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games after a loss.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.