Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans: Odds, Betting Pick

The Michigan State Spartans ran off a 3-0 run against the Penn State Nittany Lions both straight up and against the spread, but the Lions put an emphatic end to that last year with a convincing victory in Happy Valley. Coming off a brutal loss last week, Penn State looks to rebound against the Spartans on Saturday afternoon.

College football point spread: The Nittany Lions opened as 12-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.8-22.2 Nittany Lions (college football picks on every game).

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Why the Penn State Nittany Lions can cover the spread

The Lions seek solace this week after suffering a crushing 39-38 defeat at Ohio State last week. Penn State led the Buckeyes from the opening kickoff, when Saquon Barkley bolted 97 yards for a touchdown, and held a 38-27 advantage with five minutes to go. But after coming from behind to beat Ohio State last year, the Lions let the Buckeyes pull the reverse this year, giving up a pair of late scores with no response.

Still, Penn State easily covered as a seven-point dog, running its ATS record to 15-2-1 over its last 18 games.

The Nittany Lions won their first four Big Ten contests this season over Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan by an average score of 35-13. Michigan State rates a notch higher than those outfits, but not by much.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

The Spartans had won four games straight but also took a tough loss last week, 39-31 in triple overtime at Northwestern. Michigan State led that game 10-0 early, fell down 17-10 but scored with 30 seconds left to force OT. The Spartans then eventually lost in the third overtime when they gave up a 22-yard Wildcats touchdown on a third down, then threw an interception.

On the day, the Spartans racked up 540 yards of offense, as quarterback Brian Lewerke threw for 445 yards and four touchdowns. But he wishes he had that last throw back.

Michigan State won its first four Big Ten games over Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Indiana by holding three of them to 10 points or fewer. And the only reason they didn't go 4-0 ATS during that run was because they let the Gophers score twice late in what was a 30-13 game.

Smart pick

It might be tough for Penn State to pick up the pieces after such a devastating loss, but it's still the better team in this matchup. And playing on the road means the spread is a little friendlier. The smart money here bets the Lions on the bounceback.

College football betting trends

Penn State is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games against Michigan State.

The total has gone over in six of Penn State's last seven games against Michigan State.

Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games at home.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.