NFL1000 Week 8 Notebook: The Man Behind the Atlanta Falcons' Decline

Defense has taken the lead through most of the 2017 NFL season, but you wouldn't know that by watching the Seahawks and Texans on Sunday afternoon.

Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson both threw for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for at least 30 yards—a stat line that had been achieved only three times before in NFL regular-season history.

The Seahawks won 41-38 on Wilson's late touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham against questionable linebacker coverage. But it was Watson who impressed most of all, riddling the NFL's best scoring defense with deep passes.

When was the last time you saw a receiver beat Earl Thomas on a deep post? Will Fuller did when Watson hit him with a perfect deep ball on a 59-yard, first-quarter touchdown.

Watson showed no fear against Seattle's defense, adding to his incredible rookie campaign. Though he did throw three picks as well, Watson has shown he's the franchise quarterback the Texans have been looking for.

That was the marquee game of the day but hardly the only notable one. At NFL1000, our scouts are always looking to unearth what matters around the league.  

Our team: lead scout: Doug Farrar, quarterbacks: Mark Schofield, running backs/fullbacks: Mark Bullock, receivers/tight ends: Marcus Mosher, offensive line: Ethan Young, defensive line: Justis Mosqueda, linebackers: Derrik Klassen, secondary: Ian Wharton.

Here's what we found most noteworthy.

The Man Behind the Atlanta Falcons' Decline

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Through the first eight weeks of the 2016 season, Matt Ryan had completed 193 of 279 passes for 2,636 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. His 9.45 yards-per-attempt average led the league by over a full yard—Andy Dalton ranked second at 8.16.

Through Week 8 of the 2017 season, Ryan has completed 153 passes in 232 attempts for 1,844 yards, nine touchdowns and six interceptions. His 7.95 yards-per-attempt average ranks fifth—not bad, but not what we saw last season—and the downturn of 10 total touchdowns halfway through the season has to be a serious concern.

Ryan is not the only player struggling since new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian replaced Kyle Shanahan, but his struggles have been the most obvious. The problem is not with Ryan; he was put in positions to maximize his abilities and hide his weak spots under Shanahan. Under Sarkisian, those liabilities are front and center.

Shanahan had a brilliant system in which pre-snap motion was the order of the day—not only to create mismatches in coverage but also to tell Ryan what coverage was coming. Shanahan had play calls for receiver movement as all teams do, but he upped the ante against opposing defenses by flaring his halfbacks and fullback from the backfield to the slot or out wide.

He was looking to set up a speed receiver against a linebacker, or a fullback against a safety, or a big receiver against a smaller defender in the red zone—anything to catch an edge in personnel.

Sarkisian's offensive system is more static. Though he uses pre-snap motion, it's less creative. And his route concepts aren't as effective as Shanahan's were in giving Ryan easy early reads. It's something that certain coaches have a knack for—look at what Sean McVay has done for Jared Goff with the Rams—and if a quarterback isn't blessed with a coaching staff that understands advantageous route concepts, he has to be a great isolation thrower.

Ryan is not a great isolation thrower. As talented as he is, he gets balky in the pocket when pressure comes at him, and he doesn't have designed mobility (like boot action) built into the play. Moreover, he's less comfortable when his receivers are challenged at the tops of their routes. Most quarterbacks are; it's what makes Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and Tom Brady special, that they can thread the needle to their targets at any point in the route.

But Ryan is caught in a system that doesn't play to his game, and the results are obvious: Without that special game plan, he alternates between above average and ordinary.

— NFL1000 Lead Scout, Doug Farrar

No QB, No Problem—Vikings Are Legit Super Bowl Contenders

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When we say "no QB, no problem," we of course don't mean the Vikings are winning without a quarterback.

They do have journeyman Case Keenum, who was serviceable enough in his three years with the Texans but struggled at times in two seasons with the Rams. Of course, Keenum was working under Jeff Fisher when he was with the Rams, and under Fisher, Jared Goff looked like Ryan Leaf last season. So maybe that wasn't Keenum's fault.

When Sam Bradford was diagnosed with a knee injury and Teddy Bridgewater wasn't yet ready to return after his own knee injury, it was up to Keenum to keep things moving in the right direction. The undrafted free agent from Houston has done that decently enough, completing 149 of 233 passes for 1,610 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Vikings stand atop the NFC North at 6-2 after beating the Browns 33-16 in London. Keenum's day was a personification of the "game manager" ethos: 27 completions in 43 attempts for 288 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The Vikings are 4-2 in the games Keenum has started, so he must be doing something right.

What Keenum is able to do perfectly fits how the Vikings prefer to win, especially when they don't have a spectacular quarterback. They have an above-average run game that has survived the decline and departure of Adrian Peterson and the torn ACL from Dalvin Cook. More notably, they have one of the best defenses in the league from front to back, with a dynamite defensive line, versatile linebackers and a secondary that combines smart plays and big hits.

Keenum is asked to reduce negative plays more than he's asked to create big gains. He throws quickly to avoid pressure, and when he does throw a deep ball, it's usually in a manageable situation with a clear open receiver downfield.

He has two great deep threats in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, and Keenum has been effective with the deep ball this season, completing 13 of 31 passes of 20 or more air yards for 364 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Not All-Pro numbers, but good enough to help his team stay in the thick of things, which is all you can ask of a backup.

The Vikings have their bye coming up, and it's possible Bridgewater will be back for their Week 10 game against the Redskins. That would be great news, given the severity of Bridgewater's injury last season. But even if Bridgewater and Bradford struggle to get back, Keenum has done enough to prove he can avoid bringing the better parts of the Vikings organization down to a non-competitive level.

In fact, he's a reason they're at the top of their division.

— NFL1000 Lead Scout, Doug Farrar

Jameis Winston's Inconsistency Is Killing Buccaneers' Playoff Hopes

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The Buccaneers entered 2017 with high hopes. But much like the music from Pink Floyd, who placed "High Hopes" on The Division Bell album, the season so far has been a mix of melancholy and sadness. Through seven games, the Buccaneers sit at 2-5, and many are starting to wonder about the futures of head coach Dirk Koetter and general manager Jason Licht.

This offseason, Tampa Bay added some more weapons to an already talented offensive group, drafting tight end O.J. Howard and wide receiver Chris Godwin and signing DeSean Jackson. While Jameis Winston entered Sunday with decent stats, including 10 touchdown passes and an adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.46, the lack of consistency was hampering Tampa Bay in the win/loss column.

That inconsistency reared its ugly head versus the Panthers. Winston completed 21 of 38 passes for 210 yards and no touchdowns, along with two interceptions in the fourth quarter that doomed any chance of a comeback.

The first interception came on a play where Winston failed to see/feel a cornerback blitz from the right side. As he threw the ball, Captain Munnerlyn tipped it at the release point, causing the pass to flutter.

On Tampa Bay's next drive, we caught a glimpse of the inconsistency from its quarterback. Trailing 17-3, Winston had the Buccaneers on the march. He hit Cameron Brate on a post route to set up a 1st-and-10 in Carolina territory. After a holding penalty forced Tampa Bay into a 1st-and-long situation, Winston did a good job avoiding a sack off the edge, kept the play alive and found an outlet to set up a 2nd-and-14.

On 2nd-and-14, Mike Evans got separation on a vertical route and Winston overthrew him.

On 3rd-and-14, Winston stared down Brate and threw a pass right to Luke Kuechly.

If Tampa Bay is going to salvage this season, it needs more consistent play from its quarterback. Missed opportunities and turnovers are death knells in the NFL. That stretch against Carolina highlights the issues in 2017.

— NFL1000 QB Scout, Mark Schofield

What Happened to Tarik Cohen's Breakout Rookie Campaign?

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While Tarik Cohen made an explosive entrance, he's failed to consistently replicate that big-play ability as the season has progressed. Since Week 5, Cohen has just 24 carries for 47 yards.

Some of this is down to playing time. In the first three games, Cohen played between 41 and 63 percent of the snaps, but that has since dropped to between 18 and 33 percent. Against Carolina in Week 7, Cohen played just seven snaps and had no rushing attempts.

It's no coincidence that Jordan Howard's workload has increased as Cohen's has decreased.

Cohen did, however, have a huge 70-yard catch versus Carolina. He lined up outside as a receiver and ran a fantastic corner-post route, getting the corner turned around before adjusting his route to the flight of the ball.

This is where the Bears might start to try to incorporate Cohen more. They lack legitimate threats at receiver, so lining up Cohen outside or even in the slot could prove useful going forward. It would open up some options with jet sweeps and end-arounds, too.

Because of the Bears' lack of receiving threats and Cohen's explosive ability, he tends to become the focus of the defense. Without being worried about a vertical threat outside, the defense can stack the box to try to contain Cohen and prevent him from getting to the edge and working into open space.

That has been a successful tactic for opposing defenses thus far, so the Bears need to figure out ways to be more creative in how they are getting Cohen the ball in space.

— NFL1000 RB Scout, Mark Bullock

Alex Collins Deserves Lead Role in Baltimore

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The Ravens have taken a running-back-by-committee approach so far. Javorius Allen leads the team in carries ahead of Alex Collins, while Terrance West is a distant third. But it's now time the Ravens changed their approach and let Collins take over, with Allen spelling him here and there.

Collins is quietly having a solid season with 80 carries for 478 yards. He played a big role in the Ravens' 40-0 blowout win over the Dolphins, registering his first 100-yard game of the season. His 113 yards came on 18 carries, and he looked comfortable as the feature back.

The Ravens designed a beautiful game plan for their rushing attack, and Collins executed it perfectly. He displayed patience early on, correctly reading the outside-zone scheme. Then, once the Dolphins' defensive line had been moved from sideline to sideline enough to get frustrated, the Ravens hit them with trap blocks.

Collins adjusted from the zone scheme to the trap scheme effortlessly, showing off his quick feet and burst in the process.

On one trap play, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh burst through the line of scrimmage and began to close in on Collins. For some backs, that would be enough to make them panic, but Collins knew the trap block was coming and calmly side-stepped around Suh and burst through the hole he vacated on his way to a first down.

When the Ravens went back to the zone scheme and other outside toss plays, Collins seamlessly adjusted to the different tracks required for the different schemes and had no issues pressing the hole to open up cutback lanes or bursting to the edge and turning the corner.

He seems comfortable and, more importantly, effective in all the schemes the Ravens want to run. After his performance against Miami, look for Baltimore to increase his role going forward.

— NFL1000 RB Scout, Mark Bullock

Will Fuller Is Suddenly a Touchdown Machine

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After missing the team's first three games with a broken collarbone, 2016 first-round pick Will Fuller has caught fire. In the past four games, he has scored seven (!) touchdowns on just 13 (!) receptions.

Fuller was drafted so early to create big plays. In his rookie year, his performance suffered as he played with quarterbacks who rarely looked to throw the ball down the field. But with Deshaun Watson at the helm, Fuller is going to get chances to make big plays.

And that's where he thrives.

In his last two years at Notre Dame, Fuller scored 29 touchdowns despite mainly being a deep threat. In the NFL, Fuller's game hasn't changed.

He's playing opposite a true No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and with a quarterback who is a threat to run the ball. That forces defenses to leave him alone with often the second-best cornerback on the roster. Not only can Fuller's speed kill teams in man coverage, but he's often too fast for zone defenses as he runs right by the deepest defender.

Can Fuller continue to keep up this record pace for touchdowns? Probably not. But don't expect him to all of a sudden disappear, as he's in the perfect offense to maximize his skill set. Hopkins and Fuller are one of the most dynamic receiving duos in the NFL; look for the young unit to only improve as the season progresses.

— NFL1000 WR Scout, Marcus Mosher

Dolphins OL Needs to Be Rebuilt from the Ground Up

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The Miami offensive line has some clear issues it needs to address. From personnel to communication to bad reads, this unit is not playing up to the level of its investment.

The Dolphins haven't had capable guards since Richie Incognito was in town, and despite struggling at the position since then, Miami did little to improve its group. In a free-agent class loaded with talent and a draft class where promising linemen were pushed down the board, Miami was content just adding Isaac Asiata in the late fifth round and calling it a day.

Predictably, the guards have struggled.

Right guard Jermon Bushrod's numerous technical woes have continued, and left guard has been a revolving door that has resulted in Jay Ajayi being met behind the line of scrimmage consistently.

Just because the raw investment for the group is suitable doesn't mean more isn't needed to bring starter-level talent in across the board. Investing two first-round picks in your tackles and a big contract in your center doesn't cover up your holes at guard. At the least, if you are trying to be efficient, have a plan in place to find more efficient pieces rather than settling with the below-replacement-level pieces you have.

The guard personnel isn't the only issue, either. The protection calls and communication across the line has been poor, and there have been some missed assignments as a result. Losing your offensive line coach in Chris Foerster midseason doesn't help.

There are some promising pieces in Miami, particularly Laremy Tunsil. But for them to reach their potential, the thought process in constructing, developing and maintaining this offensive line needs to be overhauled.

— NFL1000 OL Scout, Ethan Young

With David Irving Back in Midseason Form, Cowboys Boast Elite Pass Rush

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In a 33-19 win against the Redskins, the Cowboys laid out the blueprint for a successful finish. Dallas' defensive front was dominant: Kirk Cousins was sacked four times, and Washington's running backs combined for 37 yards behind a banged-up offensive line.

Still, to take advantage of even NFL backups, you need a baseline level of talent in the trenches. Defensive end Demarcus Lawrence has come through this season after a suspension-marked 2016, but the re-emergence of defensive lineman David Irving, who himself served a four-game suspension, is what could propel the Cowboys.

While Lawrence recorded a sack, a tackle for a loss and two quarterback hits Sunday, Irving produced 2.5 tackles for a loss, two sacks, two quarterback hits and a pass deflection. They also combined for 2.5 tackles for loss and two sacks in Week 7 against the 49ers. If Dallas can have that performance every week, this pass-rushing duo will be hard to stop.

Recently, the Chiefs have been holding their offensive line together with string and gum. After back-to-back losses, the Chiefs will host the Broncos on Monday Night Football and then travel to Dallas on a short week. While everyone is focusing on Lawrence, just know the Kansas City coaching will spend just as much time game-planning for Irving, who plays both end and tackle for the now-4-3 Cowboys.

Dallas realistically needs to go 10-6 to make the playoffs. The team has a chance to dominate a struggling offensive line for the third consecutive week on Sunday because Irving is playing at his fullest potential at the right time.

— NFL1000 DL Scout, Justis Mosqueda

Despite Loss, Ryan Kerrigan Dominated Cowboys' Great Offensive Line

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Ryan Kerrigan is one of the most underappreciated pass-rushers in the NFL. Since entering the league in 2011, he has amassed at least 7.5 sacks every season, including two seasons with 10-plus sacks. He is setting himself up for a chance at the 100-sack club by the time his career is over.

The Cowboys felt Kerrigan's wrath this week.

It was a rainy, dark game already, but Kerrigan provided a storm of his own for Dallas' offense. Being in the same division as Kerrigan, the Cowboys are familiar with the chaos he can bring, and he was a force off the edge despite spending some time off the field because of a groin injury.

Kerrigan won with a blend of leverage and power, as he has for the length of his career. He often fights through offensive tackles rather than around them, as teammate Preston Smith might. Washington recorded just two sacks on the day, both coming from Kerrigan. In fact, Kerrigan's two sacks accounted for all but one of the team's QB hits.

Washington sputtered out because of its offense, but Kerrigan led a defensive charge that could have sprung the team to an ugly win in the rain.

— NFL1000 LB Scout, Derrik Klassen

Raiders' Inability to Create Turnovers Is a Major Problem

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As the Raiders have slipped to 3-5, there's blame to be handed out. They were a popular preseason pick to win the AFC West and potentially represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Yet midway through the season, they are on pace to end up with a top-10 draft pick.

The Bills were the latest team to expose the Raiders defense, as quarterback Tyrod Taylor was rarely asked to make a big play downfield. Instead, the Raiders' cornerback trio of Sean Smith, T.J. Carrie and Dexter McDonald allowed seven receptions on 10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown to Bills receivers Andre Holmes, Zay Jones and Brandon Tate.

While not backbreaking, the lack of playmaking within the secondary made it easy for Taylor to control the pace of the game with efficiency. The lone bright spot of the day came from rookie safety Shalom Luani, who logged a pass defense and seven tackles.

With Gareon Conley, David Amerson, Obi Melifonwu and Karl Joseph out this week, the Raiders were down to the bare minimum. By relying on zone coverages, defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. should be able to expect more pass breakups and the occasional turnover, but it hasn't happened. Taylor was able to avoid pressure well enough throughout the day until his receivers found the soft spots in the defense.

In 2016, the upstart Raiders finished second in the league with 30 takeaways, helping offset a vanilla defense that still hemorrhaged yards. Eight games into 2017, they have just five fumbles recovered and zero interceptions.

It's acceptable to be a bend-but-don't-break unit, but the Raiders can't turn their season around harboring a bottom-five defense without improving their forced turnovers.

— NFL1000 DB Scout, Ian Wharton

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