Miami Hurricanes vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds, Betting Pick

Since becoming ACC rivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels lead their series with the Miami Hurricanes 7-6, going 6-4 against the spread over the last 10 meetings with back-to-back win/covers the last two seasons. But oddsmakers are thinking something different might happen when Miami (6-0, 4-0) dances with North Carolina (1-7, 0-5) on Saturday afternoon.  

College football point spread: The Hurricanes opened as 20.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 46.6-11.6 Hurricanes (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

The Hurricanes ran their winning streak to 11 with a 27-19 decision over Syracuse last week. Miami grabbed an early 13-0 lead, let the Orange get within 20-19 in the fourth quarter, then promptly drove 85 yards to a touchdown. The Hurricanes defense secured the victory with a four-down stop near midfield with 90 seconds to go.

Miami outgained Syracuse 480-399, marking the fifth time the team has outgained its opponents this season. The Canes also won the turnover battle 4-1.

Miami is also 2-0 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season, covering spreads of six and three points, respectively, at Duke and Florida State. Over their last nine true road games, the Hurricanes are 7-2 both SU and ATS.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

Two seasons removed from a division title, the Tar Heels are going through one of those lost seasons many programs can experience. Injuries and youth have taken their toll on UNC, and it showed again last week in a 59-7 defeat against Virginia Tech.

The Heels fell down 7-0 on a fumble returned for a Hokies touchdown, then gave up a 91-yard punt return for a score and, a few minutes later, driving near the Virginia Tech red zone, threw a pick-six.

There wasn't much good to take from last week's performance, so the best thing for them is probably just to burn that game tape and move on.

Two weeks ago the Heels overcame an early 10-0 deficit to take a 14-10 third-quarter lead against an improved Virginia outfit. But they gave up an 81-yard touchdown on a swing pass and lost 20-14.

Smart pick

Miami isn't exactly blowing opponents out, but it's clearly the much better team in this matchup. North Carolina is a mess and inspires zero betting confidence at the moment. The smart money here gives the points with the Hurricanes.

College football betting trends

Miami is 1-3 ATS in its last four games against North Carolina.

The total has gone under in four of Miami's last five games against North Carolina.

Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on the road against North Carolina.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.