College Football Odds Week 9: Picks for Top 25 Matchups Based on Vegas Lines
Recent weeks in college football haven't been short on excitement, but they have been noticeably short on marquee games.
That's about to change in Week 9.
Instead of one or two games between ranked opponents, there will be four. One of which is a battle between two teams in the Top 10. Ohio State and Penn State will fight for conference supremacy in one of the many matchups that will have a major impact on the College Football Playoff race.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As October draws to a close, the stakes are high, and this weekend's action should bring us closer to setting up that home stretch in November.
Here's a look at the complete schedule along with the latest odds, picks for every game and a closer look at three of the biggest games for the weekend.
Week 9 Top 25 Schedule
All times ET. Odds via OddsShark, author's picks are in bold.
Thursday, October 26
No. 20 Stanford at Oregon State (+20) - 9 p.m.
Friday, October 27
Tulane at No. 24 Memphis (-11) - 8 p.m.
Saturday, October 28
No. 5 Wisconsin at Illinois (+26) - Noon
No. 8 Miami at North Carolina (+20.5) - Noon
No. 11 Oklahoma State at No. 22 West Virginia (+7.5) - Noon
No. 2 Penn State at No. 6 Ohio State (-6.5) - 3:30 p.m.
No. 3 Georgia at Florida (+14) - 3:30 p.m.
No. 4 TCU at No. 25 Iowa State (+6.5) - 3:30 p.m.
No. 14 NC State at No. 9 Notre Dame (-7) - 3:30 p.m.
UCLA at No. 12 Washington (-17) - 3:30 p.m.
No. 16 Michigan State at Northwestern (+2) - 3:30 p.m.
Houston at No. 17 USF (-10.5) - 3:45 p.m.
Austin Peay at No. 18 UCF (No line available) - 5 p.m.
Duke at No. 13 Virginia Tech (-15.5) - 7:20 p.m.
Georgia Tech at No. 7 Clemson (-14) - 8 p.m.
Texas Tech at No. 10 Oklahoma (-20) - 8 p.m.
No. 15 Washington State at Arizona (+3) - 9:30 p.m.
No. 21 USC at Arizona State (+3) - 10:45 p.m.
No. 2 Penn State at No. 6 Ohio State
There's no doubt the Big Ten matchup between undefeated Penn State and Ohio State is the crown jewel of the Week 9 offerings. The winner will be in the driver's seat of a conference that is virtually guaranteed a College Football Playoff spot.
Ohio State comes in as nearly a touchdown favorite, which might seem like a surprise on the surface. After all, the Nittany Lions are ranked higher, undefeated and coming off their most impressive result yet in a 42-13 drubbing of Michigan.
A closer examination reveals why the Buckeyes are favored, though.
While Penn State was enjoying the limelight last week, Ohio State was relaxing in Columbus and gearing up for another week of preparing for Saquon Barkley and Co.
As Dan Hope of 11 Warriors noted, Urban Meyer has been nearly unstoppable coming off a bye week in the regular season:
Also working in the Buckeyes' favor is that they will be playing at home. Under Meyer, Ohio State is 37-3 in Ohio Stadium. Combined with the record coming off a bye week, and these conditions are favorable for a Buckeye win.
Looking at the rosters, there isn't a clear discrepancy in talent. The F/+ rankings which take into account efficiency, explosiveness and other on-field factors outside of wins and losses have Ohio State as the No. 1 team in the nation, per Football Outsiders. Penn State isn't too far behind at No. 4.
While the Nittany Lions have been excellent on the defensive side of the ball, they haven't played any offenses that could challenge them.
That will change when they take the field in Columbus on Saturday afternoon. The Buckeyes are No. 6 in the country in yards per play, averaging 7.37, and led by J.T. Barrett and J.K. Dobbins.
The matchup of running backs figures to be an interesting one. Dobbins has put up rushing numbers that outdo Heisman candidate Barkley's, but the Penn State junior is also an excellent receiver. His 448 receiving yards this season is why he's No. 2 in yards from scrimmage per game in the nation.
While Penn State had its moment in the spotlight dismantling the Wolverines, the Buckeyes could steal that momentum Saturday. Coming off a bye, playing at home with a lot of momentum expect Ohio State to make a statement.
Ohio State 35, Penn State 21
No. 4 TCU at No. 25 Iowa State
Heading into Ames undefeated against an unusually good Iowa State team could have the feel of a trap game. The Cyclones beating Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners, paired with blowout wins over Kansas and Texas Tech, means that this is one of the top games this week instead.
Iowa State will aim to take down its second undefeated Big 12 team when the Frogs come rolling in.
The only problem is that lightning rarely strikes in the same place twice. Matt Campbell has this team in top form, but it won't be sneaking up on the Frogs.
"If we don't handle business and take care of what we have now, it's not going to really matter next week," cornerback Ranthony Texada said, per Stephen Hawkins of the Associated Press (via NCAA.com). "Day by day, the little things, it will take care of itself if we're doing that."
TCU head coach Gary Patterson appears to have his team ready and attacking the season with a week-by-week approach. It's shown up in its consistency this season. It's won every game by double-digits except for a seven-point victory over West Virginia thanks to a late surge from the Mountaineers.
The Frogs are getting the job done on both sides of the ball, too. On the offensive side, a commitment to the running game has given them a balanced attack that piles up nearly 200 yards rushing a game while throwing for 268 more. The defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete less than 50 percent of their passes and ranks No. 3 in yards allowed per carry at just 2.4.
With TCU's defense making life difficult for the Iowa State passing game, the Horned Frogs should give the offense enough opportunities to figure out a solid, but not great Iowa State defense.
TCU 35, Iowa State 24
No. 14 NC State at No. 9 Notre Dame
Last week the Irish picked up a signature win by dismantling USC en route to a 49-14 victory and major bragging rights.
Given the win and the success of Georgia, which gave Notre Dame its only loss in a one-point game, it would be easy to crown the Irish a lock to run the table and have a case for the playoff by the end of the year.
The Wolfpack might have something to say about that.
Last week's rivalry game played right into Notre Dame's hands. The Irish love to pound the rock with Josh Adams and company, setting up the ground game and allowing Brandon Wimbush to throw when necessary.
It's a strategy that has worked for the Irish except when it didn't—against Georgia. Adams and the running game was bottled up to the tune of just 1.5 yards per carry. Wimbush was forced to throw 40 times, and the Bulldogs did enough on offense to take advantage of the inefficiency from Notre Dame.
North Carolina State has a nasty front seven that's capable of keeping the ball in front of them in the run game. It ranks 14th in yards allowed per carry (3.04), comparable to Georgia, which ranks seventh (2.82).
As the video below from OddsShark noted, the Wolfpack has thrived as an underdog of late under Dave Doeren:
Whereas last week was the perfect matchup for Notre Dame to flex its muscles, the Wolfpack might just be able to exploit their weaknesses. If they can come out victorious, it's because Wimbush was able to step up and do something he really hasn't done yet, which is win them a game on the strength of his play.
NC State 28, Notre Dame 24
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
