NFL Week 7 Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions Before Thursday Night

The Kansas City Chiefs were the standard bearers in the NFL through their first five games of the season. They were much improved on offense, had a powerful and hard-hitting defense and understood the importance of special teams play.

But the Chiefs saw their undefeated record disappear when the Pittsburgh Steelers came to raucous Arrowhead Stadium last week.

Superstars Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown took apart the Kansas City defense with a series of damaging plays, and the Chiefs did not have any satisfactory answers. So, that leads to questions: What's wrong with the Chiefs? Did the Steelers expose key weaknesses?

The answer from this corner is that there's nothing wrong with the Chiefs. They are not an undefeated team anymore, but who thought this team would go 14-2, 15-1 or 16-0 as the season got underway? Nobody.

The Chiefs are are a team that looks capable of a long run in the playoffs thanks to improved play from QB Alex Smith, explosive running from Kareem Hunt and a much better passing game than expected.

However, this team still has a lot of work to do and improvements to make. They have the right leader in head coach Andy Reid, who excels at developing a game plan that takes advantage of his team's strengths and the opponent's weaknesses.

The Chiefs' next assignment is a road game Thursday night against rivals Oakland Raiders.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The sight of the Chiefs in Oakland should allow the Raiders to come up with a peak performance.

Quarterback Derek Carr needs RB Marshawn Lynch and WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper to step up, and he also needs the Raiders defense to present him with a few takeaways.

The Chiefs are three-point road favorites according to OddsShark, and that should be a handicap that the Chiefs should easily cover. 

Matchup, point spread, prediction (All point spreads courtesy of OddsShark)

Kansas City at Oakland, KC -3, 46.5, Kansas City/Over

Carolina at Chicago, Car. -3, 40.5, Chicago/Under

New Orleans at Green Bay, NO -5.5, 47.5, NO/Over

Baltimore at Minnesota, Minn. -5.5, 40, Baltimore*/Over

Tampa Bay at Buffalo, Buff. -3, Buffalo

Tennessee at Cleveland, Tenn. -5.5, 46.5, Tennessee/Under

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, Jack. -3, 44, Indianapolis/Over

New York Jets at Miami, Mia. -3.5, 38.5, NYJ/Under

Arizona vs. L.A. Rams (London), LAR -3.5. L.A. Rams

Dallas at San Francisco, Dall. -6, 46, San Francisco*/Over

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Pitt. -5, 41.5, Pittsburgh/Over

Denver at L.A. Chargers, Den. -1.5, 42, L.A. Chargers/Under

Seattle at N.Y. Giants, Sea. -5.5, 40, Seattle/Under

Atlanta at New England, NE -3, 55, Atlanta/Over

Washington at Philadelphia, Phil. -4.5/48.5, Washington/Over

*-Will cover point spread but lose game.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

Disaster has hit the Packers with the broken collarbone suffered by Aaron Rodgers. It will almost certainly keep the Packers from having a legitimate chance to dominate the NFC and reach the Super Bowl.

They will try to keep their heads above water with unproven Brett Hundley at quarterback, who had thrown 10 passes in his career prior to entering last week's game against the Minnesota Vikings. 

Hundley has the intelligence to play in high-stress situations, but he is lacking experience. That's likely to result in several turnovers, as it did against the Vikings when he threw three interceptions.

The positive for Hundley is the presence of head coach Mike McCarthy on the sidelines. He is one of the top offensive minds in the game, and he will give his new quarterback a road map for success with each game plan.

Green Bay is a 5.5-point underdog at Lambeau Field against the Saints. If Rodgers was in the lineup, the Packers would have been favored by at least that many points and perhaps more.

The Saints are an improved team at 3-2, but their defense ranks 26th in yards allowed and 28th against the pass. That means Hundley should have an opportunity to do some damage by throwing to Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb.

Drew Brees will have opportunities to hurt the Packers by throwing to wide receiver Michael Thomas, but look for Green Bay's defense to rally with linebackers Clay Matthews and Blake Martinez playing key roles.

The Packers may not win this game, but they will get close and stay within the spread. Take the Packers to cover.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

When the schedule comes out in the offseason, NFL fans look for the top games they know will have their attention once the regular season commences.

It's doubtful many games seemed more inviting than this matchup between the Falcons and the Patriots. A Super Bowl rematch between the team that lost the biggest lead in the history of the big game and its tormentor promises great drama.

But the reality is quite a bit different than that script. The Falcons have lost their last two home games to the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins and suddenly look vulnerable, as if the Super Bowl hangover has taken effect.

The Patriots have also lost two home games, and that's somewhat shocking for a team that several NFL observers thought would go 16-0. 

Defensively, the Patriots are struggling this season, and Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan should be able to take apart the New England secondary. 

The total in this game is 55 points, and that's normally much too high to consider the over. However, these are two of the most prolific offenses in the league that have strong advantages over the defenses they will face.

We see this as more like a college game between two high-scoring teams. They will blow past the over early in the fourth quarter.

Prop Bets

Many bettors get hooked on prop bets towards the end of the regular season. They are more plentiful during the playoffs, and they are almost impossible to ignore prior to the Super Bowl.

They are harder to find early in the regular season, but OddsChecker regularly offers bettors a chance to wager on the first TD scorer in a number of games.

Let's examine the Kansas City-Oakland game Thursday night. Hunt is listed at 5-1 to open the scoring, while Lynch and Kansas City TE Travis Kelce are both 8-1 shots. Crabtree and Cooper are 10-1 shots to score the first TD, and so is Oakland TE Jared Cook and Kansas City wideout Tyreek Hill (neck).

The belief here is that the Raiders will concentrate their efforts on slowing down Hunt and Hill, and that may leave Kelce with single coverage early on. Our play is that Kelce will score the first TD of the game, and bring an 8-1 return to his backers.