Maryland Terrapins vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds, College Football Betting Pick

Like many good teams, the Wisconsin Badgers are good at home but not necessarily a good bet. Over the last three-plus seasons, Wisconsin is 21-3 at Camp Randall Stadium but only 10-13-1 against the spread, often because it's favored by a bit too much. The Badgers are heavy favorites for Saturday afternoon's Homecoming gig with the Maryland Terrapins in Madison.

College football point spread: The Badgers opened as 24-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 44.9-13.0 Badgers (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Maryland Terrapins can cover the spread

The Terps started this season 3-1 with that surprising and entertaining victory at Texas and a Big Ten road win at Minnesota. They're now trying to snap a two-game skid after losing at Northwestern last week 37-21.

The Terrapins led the Wildcats early last week 7-0 and only trailed 27-21 into the fourth quarter but could get no closer and missed ATS as three-point dogs. Maryland got beat on the stat sheet but hung in the game until the final couple minutes.

The Terps are down to their third-string quarterback, sophomore Max Bortenschlager, but he directed them to a win over the Gophers in Minneapolis and helped keep them close last week, throwing for 255 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. If he could help put up 21 points again this Saturday, Maryland could cash.

Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

Wisconsin reached 6-0 last week, and 3-0 in Big Ten play, gutting out a 17-9 victory over Purdue. The Badgers took a 7-0 lead on Jonathan Taylor's 67-yard touchdown jolt a minute and a half into the game, pushed that to 17-3 and hung on from there. Up eight in the fourth quarter, the Wisconsin defense came up with a pick inside its own red zone, and the Badgers offense then ran the last eight minutes off the clock to secure victory.

Wisconsin did, however, come up a bit short of the spread as 17-point favorites.

UW actually controlled play for the most part, outgaining Purdue 498-221, outrushing the Boilers 295-66 and winning time of possession by a 39-21 split. But the Badgers lost three turnovers inside Purdue territory, including a fumble from the Boilers' 5-yard line, and had a punt blocked. Fortunately, that sixth-ranked defense in the country held a Purdue team that has hit the 28-point mark four times this season out of the end zone all day.

Wisconsin has now outgained and outrushed all six opponents this season.

Smart pick

The Badgers should win this game, but they do have a tendency to struggle with supposedly lesser opponents on occasion, often at home, and a slow start can lead to a long climb toward a cover. Smart money here on the college football point spreads probably takes the Terps and the points.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Wisconsin's last seven games against its conference.

Wisconsin is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games in Week 8.

Maryland is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games after consecutive losses.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.