Kansas Jayhawks vs. TCU Horned Frogs Odds, College Football Betting Pick

Since becoming Big 12 rivals, the TCU Horned Frogs are 5-0 straight up in the series with the Kansas Jayhawks, but KU is 5-0 against the spread, keeping every game close as sizable underdogs. Can the Jayhawks do more than just provide homecoming fodder for the Frogs on Saturday evening in Fort Worth?

College football point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 38-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (line updates and matchup report available here)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 45.8-10.0 Horned Frogs (college football picks on every game available here)

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Why the Kansas Jayhawks can cover the spread

Kansas began this season well enough, with a victory over Southeast Missouri State, but is now trying to snap a five-game losing streak after falling at Iowa State last week 45-0. The Jayhawks only trailed by one score deep into the first quarter, but a Cyclones punt return for a touchdown opened the floodgates.

On the day, Kansas only came up with 106 yards of total offense and went just 2-for-19 on third-down and fourth-down conversions. However, the Jayhawks defense only gave up 318 yards, holding Iowa State to 106 rushing yards on 43 attempts. Kansas also lost a fumble on a punt, botched a punt, turned the ball over twice and got stuffed on a 4th-and-1, handing the Cyclones several short fields. ISU had four touchdown drives of 35 yards or less.

Jayhawks quarterback Peyton Bender, the transfer from Washington State, started this season by throwing for 300 yards each of the first three games. If Kansas could put just 17 points on the board and cut down on the mistakes, it could keep this one close.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

TCU moved to 6-0 on the season with a 26-6 victory at Kansas State last week. The Frogs led 10-0 after one quarter and slowly pulled away from there, eventually covering the spread as seven-point road favorites.

On the afternoon, TCU outgained the Wildcats 395-216 and held a 32-28 time of possession advantage. The Frogs also went 9-for-18 on third-down and fourth-down conversions, while holding Kansas State to a 2-for-16 effort. And the TCU defense twice stopped the Wildcats on downs inside its own 10-yard line.

The Frogs have now outrushed each of their six opponents this season by a per-game margin of 200-98.

Smart pick

Games like this are tough to call because while there isn't much doubt as to the winner, the spread is undoubtedly inflated toward the home favorite. Still, Kansas inspires zero betting confidence, considering it's only covered one spread this season. The Jayhawks will have a tough time keeping this one close: Smarter money in this spot gives the points to TCU.

College football betting trends

Kansas is 0-5 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five games against TCU.

The total has gone under in four of Kansas' last five games against TCU.

TCU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.