Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Odds, College Football Betting Pick

The Oklahoma Sooners are 5-2 outright over the last seven Red River Shootouts, but the Texas Longhorns are 4-0 against the spread over the last four meetings, pulling off a pair of upsets and keeping two losses close. Oklahoma is favored by a touchdown for the 101st meeting with Texas on Saturday afternoon at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

College football point spread: The Sooners opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.8-30.6 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over its last four games, following a 30-24 double-overtime victory over Kansas State last week. The Longhorns spotted the Wildcats the game's first 10 points but rallied to take a 21-17 lead into halftime. Texas later forced OT on a field goal with a minute-and-a-half to go, then won it on Chris Warren's two-yard touchdown scrum run at the bottom of the second overtime.

On the evening the Longhorns outgained Kansas State 546-394, as freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger threw for 380 yards and ran for 107. Texas also squeaked out a cover as a five-point favorite.

Two weeks ago the Longhorns won at Iowa State 17-7, covering another five-point spread. Before that they lost at USC in overtime 27-24 but covered easily as 17-point 'dogs. And before that they beat San Jose State 56-0, covering as 25-point chalk. So diminished expectations seem to be helping Texas' financial backers.

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners are shooting to bounce back this week after suffering a shocking 38-31 upset against Iowa State last week in Norman. Oklahoma jumped out to a 14-0 lead eight minutes into the game, and held a 24-13 advantage at halftime. But the Sooners gave up the first 18 points out of the locker room, and later allowed the tie-breaking touchdown pass with just over two minutes to go, as their 14-game winning streak came to an end.

On the day Oklahoma racked up 513 yards of total offense, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, who threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 57 more and another score. But a lost fumble at the Cyclones 5-yard line early in the second half became a two-score turnaround, and basically reversed momentum.

Prior to last week the Sooners had started 4-0 by averaging 48 points per game. Oklahoma has also outgained each of its five opponents this season by an average of 230 yards.

Smart pick

The Sooners defense has given up 38 and 41 points the last two weeks to teams they were favored by 28 and 31 points over. Sometimes that's what happens when you hire an offensive coordinator as head coach. The Longhorns, meanwhile, look much improved over the team that gave up 51 points to Maryland in Week 1. Smart money here at sports betting sites takes Texas.

College football betting trends

Texas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against Oklahoma.

Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.

The total has gone under in 10 of Texas' last 12 games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.