Contenders and Pretenders Among Surprise Early-Season Division Leaders

In terms of games played, we'll officially reach the quarter pole of the 2017 NFL regular season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New England Patriots on Thursday night. And while there are several surprisingly strong and weak teams every year at this stage, this season has felt particularly wild in that regard. 

While potential and presumed contenders like the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers are a combined 1-11, a half-dozen overachievers currently hold solo or partial division leads even though few expected them to win said divisions prior to the season. 

Let's look at all six of those teams and break down their chances of sustaining their early-season success. 

Buffalo Bills

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Tyrod Taylor and the Bills are 3-1.

The 3-1 Buffalo Bills are unaccompanied atop the AFC East, but don't expect that to hold up over the next three months.

The 2-2 New England Patriots entered the season as the clear-cut Super Bowl favorite, and it's safe to anticipate another division title for the defending champions. The Pats have won the division in 13 of the past 14 years, while Buffalo—which seemed to be tanking after firing its general manager after the draft and parting ways with several key players in August—hasn't been to the playoffs this century. 

The Bills are far more likely to be in the mix for a wild-card spot, which would still be a surprise given their outlook heading into the season.

They have a capable, experienced, highly athletic quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, who has thrown just one interception—the team's only turnover to date—in a four-week span. Taylor, who was a late addition to the Pro Bowl in 2015 and regressed slightly in 2016, is tied for seventh among qualified quarterbacks with a 100.7 passer rating. The 28-year-old is playing the best football of his career.

Meanwhile, a defense that ranked at or below the league median in points and yards allowed last season has taken off this year. The Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers are the only teams to have surrendered fewer than 15 points per game through the first quarter of the season, which speaks volumes considering their schedule. They held Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers to just nine points, gave up 16 to the Denver Broncos and allowed only 17 to the Falcons in Atlanta. 

According to Football Outsiders, Buffalo leads the NFL in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), which is even more impressive considering star defensive tackle Marcell Dareus has hardly been a factor while dealing with an ankle injury. Defensive ends Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson have excelled in new head coach Sean McDermott's 4-3 scheme, which has been far more effective than what the departed Rex Ryan had going on. 

Despite all of that, the Bills remain vulnerable. Taylor could use more weapons. They parted with four veteran receivers—Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter—in the offseason, preseason addition Jordan Matthews is injured and veteran back LeSean McCoy is off to a slow start. The revamped secondary could also come back to earth after newbies Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Tre'Davious White and E.J. Gaines got off to strong starts. Buffalo also lost leading tackler Ramon Humber to a significant injury Sunday against Atlanta. 

But even some regression toward the mean could be offset by the eventual return of stalwart left tackle Cordy Glenn, whose ankle injury doesn't appear to be a long-term concern.

In a league known for parity and a conference that currently has just four teams with winning records, being "not bad" might be enough to earn a road game in January. The Bills are inches removed from a perfect record right now, and they have the ability to compete in a bad division.

They're due, and it's beginning to feel as though this'll be the year they finally get back to the playoffs. 

Verdict: Contenders (for a wild-card spot)

Carolina Panthers

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Cam Newton and the Panthers are 3-1.

The Carolina Panthers share the NFC South lead with a 3-1 record even though quarterback Cam Newton has struggled more often than not.

Newton recently felt the need to explain that an offense which scored just 45 points in its first three games wasn't "instant grits." Considering he missed virtually all of training camp and the preseason while recovering from shoulder surgery, that made sense. The Panthers added a number of new offensive weapons this offseason, so there were likely to be growing pains. 

Their performance Sunday in New England (33 points, 28 first downs, 444 total yards) indicates those pains are gone. That will only mean good things for a team that has a top-notch defense and should get more from rookie offensive weapons Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel as the season progresses. 

The Panthers still aren't favored to win the NFC South because the 3-1 Atlanta Falcons are coming off a Super Bowl appearance, but let's not forget that Carolina won the NFC Championship just 20 months ago. The roster has undergone plenty of change since then, but Newton remains its leader, veteran front-seven defenders Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Kawann Short are off to superb starts and it's only a matter of time before McCaffrey starts going off. 

It's still fair to be concerned about a secondary that continues to miss Josh Norman and an offense that lacked consistency last season. It's fair to wonder whether Kuechly and Davis can hold up. It's fair to ask if Newton is healthy, if he can remain accurate and if he can stay upright with highly paid bust Matt Kalil protecting a blind side that has been neglected for years. 

That's why the Falcons remain the team to beat in that division. One strong offensive performance against a banged-up, somewhat lost Pats team doesn't make up for poor showings against the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo and the New Orleans Saints, and a 21-point home loss to the Saints hurts their intra-divisional cred. 

The Panthers have to do a lot more to rejoin Super Bowl conversations, but their track record, strong defensive efforts against San Francisco and Buffalo and a breakout performance against the Patriots is enough for them to be viewed as playoff contenders entering Week 5. 

Verdict: Contenders (for a wild-card spot)

Detroit Lions

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Matthew Stafford and the Lions are tied for the NFC North lead at 3-1.

In August, the question as to whether the Detroit Lions would contend in 2017 was a tricky one. Detroit overachieved last season, making the playoffs as a wild card after a ridiculous eight fourth-quarter comeback victories. On paper, the Lions weren't all that good—they finished with the league's sixth-worst DVOA—which indicated they'd likely be victimized by the law of averages in 2017. 

The Lions did, however, bolster their offensive line by replacing Riley Reiff and Larry Warford with Rick Wagner and T.J. Lang on the right side. And Matthew Stafford is still an above-average quarterback at the worst of times and a clutch magician at the best of times. Throw in the return of promising young running back Ameer Abdullah and questions surrounding division rivals—the Green Bay Packers had a tough offseason, the Minnesota Vikings have quarterback concerns and the Chicago Bears are rebuilding—and Detroit always had at least an outside shot. 

Still, they've exceeded expectations early. They actually rank fifth in football in terms of DVOA, and like the Bills, they're a tough break short of a 4-0 record. 

It'll still be difficult for the Lions to keep up with the 3-1 Packers all season, but they're better now than they were a year ago, and it's become clear that those eight comebacks weren't a complete anomaly. Detroit continues to possess that fourth-quarter magic this season, but with at least a little more support for Stafford. 

The defense could still wind up backing Stafford and Co. into too many corners, but that unit has been far better as well. The Lions lead the NFC with 11 takeaways, and they've surrendered 10 or fewer points in two of their first four outings. Rookie linebacker Jarrad Davis has performed well when healthy (he should be back soon), second-year safety Miles Killebrew has emerged to form a hell of a duo with veteran Glover Quin, defensive end Ziggy Ansah appears to be having a bounce-back year and cornerback Darius Slay continues to shine without much fanfare. 

The Lions don't have many glaring weaknesses, especially if Abdullah can continue to give them balance on offense. They've survived the loss of left tackle Taylor Decker, who should return later in the year anyway. 

Don't be surprised if this team hangs with Green Bay, earns a chance to play in January one way or another and makes a strong push to win its first playoff game in 26 years.

Verdict: Contenders 

Jacksonville Jaguars

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Doug Marrone and the Jaguars are in a three-way tie atop the AFC South.

I've been covering this league for a full decade, and never have I seen a talented team sunk by its quarterback to the extent that Blake Bortles has impeded the Jacksonville Jaguars. This team would undoubtedly be a contender if not for its problems at quarterback, but those problems are so abundant and disruptive that it's hard to imagine the Jags remaining in contention in the AFC South. 

They do share the lead in that division with the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans after all three teams started 2-2. However, the Titans and Texans were much better than Jacksonville last season, and each got better in the offseason. Tennessee added several weapons in free agency and the draft, while the Texans appear to have found their franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson. 

The Jaguars improved on paper as well. New arrivals Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye have immediately helped turn a young and talented defense into a young, talented and successful one. They're one of three teams with 10-plus takeaways, the only team in football with more than 15 sacks (they have 18) and they've held two of their first four opponents to exactly seven points. On offense, they added sensational No. 4 overall pick Leonard Fournette at running back and highly touted former Alabama stud Cam Robinson at left tackle. 

But that likely won't be enough so long as Bortles is under center. 

That became evident when the Jags lost Sunday to the comically bad New York Jets despite the defense generating five sacks and a pair of takeaways. Bortles completed just 15 of 35 passes for 140 yards and threw a silly interception to a defensive lineman in the second half of a close game. 

Bortles also performed terribly in a Week 2 blowout loss to the Titans, and he was hardly a factor as the defense put together a masterpiece against the Texans. He was remarkably strong in a Week 3 victory over the Baltimore Ravens—20-of-31 for 244 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions—but performances like those are few and far between. 

We know who Bortles is now. We've seen this for more than three years. Even with a strong offensive line and an exciting young back, that's not enough. The Jaguars can't rely on him to consistently avoid disaster, let alone lead the way. Throw in the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson and you get the picture.

Right now, the Jaguars have a group of highly talented players, many of whom are making big-time plays. That might sound nice, and it might be enough to help this team win more than a handful of games for the first time since 2010. But success in the NFL in 2017 requires more than that, especially if everyone is trying to compensate for bad quarterback play in an increasingly competitive division. 

Don't expect the Jags to keep pace with the Titans and Texans. 

Verdict: Pretenders (but no longer a slouch)

Los Angeles Rams

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Todd Gurley and Jared Goff have the Rams offense off to a dominant start.

The Los Angeles Rams lead the NFC West with a 3-1 record, just as they did at this point last year. But they turned out to be early-season pretenders in 2016, settling for just one victory in their final 12 games. 

What's different this time? 

For starters, 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff had yet to see the field for the Rams at this stage last season. He stunk when he eventually did get a chance to start, but the 22-year-old has looked like a different quarterback in 2017. 

That hot start and steady, seemingly inevitable decline also came with Jeff Fisher coaching the Rams. Now, Fisher has been replaced by wunderkind Sean McVay, a 32-year-old offensive guru who has been getting way more out of Goff, running back Todd Gurley and the rest of that offense. 

This year, Goff is putting up top-10 numbers, Gurley has bounced back from a sophomore slump with 596 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns in the first four weeks, the revamped receiving corps—highlighted by new arrivals Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp—has gone from liability to asset, and Goff is now protected by a Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle in Andrew Whitworth. 

The Rams are averaging a league-high 35.5 points per game, and it's not as though that defense—featuring superstar defensive tackle Aaron Donald and led by veteran coordinator Wade Phillips—hasn't been solid. (It already has seven takeaways and ranks 13th in terms of DVOA.) Last year at this time, the Rams had allowed 13 more points than they'd scored. This year, they've scored 37 more than they've allowed. 

Despite all of that, they still aren't contenders. 

It starts with the lack of proof from Goff, who has benefited from a friendly new system this season but remains young, inexperienced and prone to ugly moments. Those will come, especially as opposing defenses get a better feel for what McVay's offense looks like. 

If/when Goff struggles, there'll be more pressure on Gurley. We all saw what happened under those circumstances last year. Since the defense still doesn't have enough talent beyond Donald to carry a less-than-stellar offense, the Rams could soon wind up with problems. 

On top of that, the Rams still have to deal with the mighty Seattle Seahawks, who dominated the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday to remind everyone they're the class of that division. It'll be difficult for the young Rams to dethrone Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman and Co., at least this season. 

The Rams won't finish 4-12 like they did after starting 3-1 last season, but they're still a year away from truly contending. 

Verdict: Pretenders (for now)

Philadelphia Eagles

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Carson Wentz and the Eagles lead the NFC East with a 3-1 record.

It's been over a decade since the same team captured the NFC East in consecutive seasons, and the defending division champion Dallas Cowboys are off to a tumultuous start. With the New York Giants 0-4 and the Washington Redskins 2-2, that gives the 3-1 Philadelphia Eagles the edge in what will likely be another close and wild divisional race. 

While the Eagles have won back-to-back games to move to 3-1, those victories came against two opponents—the Giants and Los Angeles Chargers—who are a combined 0-8 this season. They came by a total of just five points, and the Eagles nearly coughed up fourth-quarter leads in both.

If you get outplayed handily by the Kansas City Chiefs before merely surviving by the skin of your teeth in back-to-back home games* against awful opponents, you haven't done enough to convince anybody that you have the ability to contend. 

Quarterback Carson Wentz has improved in his second season, but he still struggled in Kansas City and Los Angeles and possesses some major flaws. That might not be enough to sink the Eagles this season, but can anybody see Wentz leading this team to victories in January? 

The Eagles have a playoff ceiling, set mainly by Wentz but also by the a depleted secondary that screamed Achilles' heel even before losing top cornerback Ronald Darby to an ankle injury. 

Philly is one of the best teams in the NFL in both trenches, and Wentz—who has more support than last year with Alshon Jeffery and LeGarrette Blount in town—is becoming a better quarterback. But right now, that might not be enough for the Eagles to make a run at their first-ever Lombardi Trophy. 

Verdict: Contenders for the division title, not the Super Bowl