Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: Odds, Betting Pick

The point spread often reveals truths about teams, as a measure against expectations. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 4-1 against the spread this season, while the North Carolina Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS. Will those measures stand up when the Irish meet the Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon?

College football point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 14.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 40.0-23.6 Fighting Irish (college football picks on every game).

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Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish are 4-1 this season both SU and ATS, following their 52-17 victory and cover over Miami-Ohio last week. Notre Dame took a 7-0 lead 25 seconds into the game on Josh Adams' 73-yard touchdown bolt, led 28-7 after one quarter and 45-14 at the half. The Irish then eased up in the second half and still easily covered a 21-point spread.

On the day, Notre Dame racked up 503 yards of offense—333 on the ground. Adams also added a 59-yard scoring run, and quarterback Brandon Wimbush threw three touchdown passes, including a 54-yard bomb to Miles Boykin just before halftime for a dagger.

Notre Dame's only loss so far was that 20-19 decision to what's looking like a good Georgia team. Since then, the Irish have beaten Boston College, Michigan State and the RedHawks by an average score of 46-18, covering spreads of 14, three and 21 points.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

Carolina's is a little tougher case to make. The Tar Heels are just 1-4 both SU and ATS, and their only win came over Old Dominion. Last week UNC lost at Georgia Tech 33-7, whiffing on the spread as 10-point dogs.

Actually, the Heels only trailed the Yellow Jackets 10-0 well into the third quarter, when one of two North Carolina turnovers resulted in a Georgia Tech touchdown. UNC also missed two field goals, one makeable, when the game was still in play in the first half, one of which resulted in three points the other way.

Two weeks ago North Carolina led Duke 17-13 well into the fourth quarter but gave up the last 14 points, the final seven on a pick-six while driving in Blue Devils territory, to lose 27-17. Earlier this year, the Heels led both Cal and Louisville in the fourth quarter but lost both games. How long can they stick around Saturday night?

Smart pick

It doesn't happen too often but Notre Dame might be underrated, for the moment. That loss to the Bulldogs knocked a bit of glow from those golden domes, but that's OK. The last three spreads have been manageable, and the Irish covered them all. Meanwhile, North Carolina is banged up. The smart money here gives the points with Notre Dame on the college football lines.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in Notre Dame's last three games against North Carolina.

The visiting team is 0-3 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three games in this matchup.

North Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home in October.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.