Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 26, 2017

Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, second from right, cheers his teammates in the second half of an NCAA college football game against Vanderbilt Saturday, Sept. 23, 2017, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

The Alabama Crimson Tide own a significant lead in the rivalry with the Ole Miss Rebels, winning 49 of 60 meetings all-time. But the Rebels have won two of the last three meetings, and they're 7-3 against the spread over the last 10. The Rebels challenge the top-ranked Crimson Tide on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 28-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 50.3-15.7 Crimson Tide (college football picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

       

Why the Ole Miss Rebels can cover the spread

Mississippi opened this season by putting up 47 points in a win over South Alabama and 45 in a victory over Tennessee-Martin. The Rebels then headed West and lost at what looks like an improving Cal Bears team 27-16, before getting last week off.

Ole Miss led Cal 16-7 at the half and 16-14 late into the third quarter. But near the end, trailing 20-16, Rebels quarterback Shea Patterson threw a pick-six on a third down, ending hopes of a rally.

On the night Ole Miss outgained the Bears 416-399. The sophomore Patterson threw for 363 yards and a pair of touchdowns, connecting with wide receivers DK Metcalf three times for 125 yards, DaMarkus Lodge four times for 100 yards and Van Jefferson 10 times for 94 yards. Unfortunately, three interceptions led directly to 14 Cal points, and 16 penalties for 113 yards didn't help, either.

If they can cut down on the mistakes and catch a few breaks, the Rebs could keep Saturday's game close.

      

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Tide rolled their SEC winning streak to 18 in a row last Saturday with a 59-0 sinking of Vanderbilt. Alabama had a 20-point spread covered in the first quarter with a 21-0 lead and poured it on from there.

On the day, the Tide outgained the Commodores by the ridiculous margin of 677-78, racked up 38 first downs to Vandy's three, piled up 496 yards on the ground and held the ball for almost 43 minutes.

Alabama opened this season with that victory/cover over Florida State, then beat Fresno State and Colorado State but didn't cover huge spreads of 42 and 31 points. They probably could have if they'd wanted to, but they didn't.

      

Smart pick

It's conference season, and the Crimson Tide dominate in Southeastern Conference play, going 13-5 ATS during their SEC winning streak. Meanwhile, Ole Miss doesn't run the ball and can't stop the run, and that's a terrible combination going against Alabama. The smart money here at sports betting sites rides the Tide.

        

College football betting trends

Mississippi is 3-0 ATS in its last three games against Alabama.

The total has gone under in seven of Alabama's last nine games at home.

Alabama is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in Week 5.

      

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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