TCU Horned Frogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Odds, College Football Betting Pick

Arkansas is 8-1 both straight up and against the spread in its last nine meetings with members of the Big 12, including a wild win and cover at TCU last season. The Razorbacks hope for a repeat performance when they renew acquaintances with their former Southwestern Conference rivals Saturday afternoon in Fayetteville.

College football point spread: The Razorbacks opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.9-30.0 Horned Frogs (College football picks on every game)

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

Texas Christian opened this season with a 63-0 blowout of FCS Jackson State last Saturday. The Frogs led 21-0 after one quarter and rolled from there, although they came up one point short of pushing the spread as 64-point favorites. The hosts outgained the Tigers 542-65 and outrushed them 242-24.

Senior quarterback Kenny Hill completed 18 of 23 passes Saturday for 206 yards and four touchdowns, while 14 Frogs made receptions. The defense limited Jackson State to just 1.2 yards per play and scored two touchdowns of its own.

The Horned Frogs returned 17 starters from a team that went 6-7 last year, so they're certainly candidates for a bounce-back effort this year.

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover the spread

The Hogs opened their season last Thursday by beating FCS Florida A&M 49-7. Arkansas led the Rattlers 21-0 at the half and 42-0 before allowing A&M to hit the board midway through the fourth quarter. The Razorbacks tacked on one more touchdown but came up just short of covering the spread at minus-47.

On the evening Arkansas outgained the Rattlers 415-175, outrushed them 236-80 and won the time of possession by a 35-25 margin. Senior Austin Allen hit on 14 of 19 throws with one touchdown pass, while freshman Chase Hayden, making his collegiate debut, ran 14 times for 120 yards and a score. Meanwhile, the Hogs defense held Florida A&M to 2.9 yards per play and also scored a touchdown of its own.

Smart pick

In one of the crazier games of last season, Arkansas tipped TCU in double overtime 41-38, winning outright as a 10-point underdog. The Frogs actually outgained the Razorbacks by 170 yards that night but committed two turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown. As for this game, TCU is a better team now than it was then, while that's not necessarily true of Arkansas. The smart money here on the Vegas odds sides with the Frogs.

College football betting trends

TCU is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against the Big 12.

The total has gone under Arkansas' last three games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.