Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Odds, College Football Betting Pick

Michigan is 8-0 straight up in its last eight college football home openers, winning by an average of 31 points and going 7-1 against the spread. Predictably, the Wolverines are lined as huge favorites for their 2017 home opener against Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon.

College football point spread: The Wolverines opened as 31.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.2-8.2 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)

Why the Cincinnati Bearcats can cover the spread

Cincinnati opened its first season under new head coach Luke Fickell with a 26-14 victory over Austin Peay Thursday. The Bearcats took the first lead of the game early in the second quarter and never trailed, basically icing the victory with a fourth-quarter touchdown and a later defensive stop in the red zone.

Junior quarterback Hayden Moore, who entered this season with a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 20-18, hit on 17 of 28 throws, with three touchdown passes and zero interceptions. The Cincinnati offense didn't turn the ball over at all, while the defense forced two turnovers, both in Bearcats territory.

Cincinnati also got 100 yards rushing on just 19 carries from senior running back Mike Boone.

The Big House in Ann Arbor is a big stage, but Fickell isn't exactly a stranger to the Big Ten; he played at Ohio State and then served on the Buckeyes staff, with one season as interim head coach, for the previous 14 years.

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Wolverines got their 2017 season off to a fine start, beating Florida 33-17 last Saturday on a neutral field in Texas. Michigan trailed the Gators early in the second quarter 17-10 after Wilton Speight threw pick-sixes on consecutive possessions. But those would be the only touchdowns Florida scored all day. The Wolverines ended the game with a 23-0 run, securing the victory and the cover as five-point favorites with a late defensive touchdown of their own.

On the day Michigan outgained the Gators 433-192, outrushed them 215-11 and won the time of possession by a 34-26 margin.

The Wolverines had to replace seven lost starters on offense this year and 10 on defense. But their offense averaged 5.8 yards per play against Florida while the defense allowed just 3.6 yards per play.

Smart pick

Michigan looked pretty good against quality competition last week, while Cincinnati actually got outgained by an FCS outfit. The Wolverines haven't shown much mercy for lesser opponents under coach Jim Harbaugh, going 4-2 ATS when favored by 30 points or more over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average score of 53-6. The line on this game is probably inflated by several points, but the smart money still bets Michigan at online sports betting sites.

College football betting trends

Cincinnati is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in September.

The total has gone over in Michigan's last three games.

Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in September.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.