NFL Week 1 Picks: Prop Bets, Vegas Lines, Over-Under Predictions and Advice

Three kinds of football exist for fans out there.

One is actual football, where fans root for their real favorite teams and players on gamedays.

The second is fantasy football, where fans root for their fake favorite teams involving real players on gamedays.

And the third is Vegas football, where fans root for real teams and players involving fake scores.

It's a bit confusing to an outsider, but all three are a lot of fun.

The first NFL Sunday of the year is around the corner, so let's focus on Vegas football for a minute and review some season-long prop bets for wins and this week's Vegas lines and over-unders. Then, you'll find some friendly advice at the end of the piece.

Season-Long Win Prop Bets

Here's a list of season-long win prop bets, per Justin Hartling of OddsShark, in addition to predictions for each one.

Arizona Cardinals (8): Over

Atlanta Falcons (9.5): Over

Baltimore Ravens (9): Under

Buffalo Bills (6): Over

Carolina Panthers (8.5): Over

Chicago Bears (5.5): Under

Cincinnati Bengals (8.5): Under

Cleveland Browns (4.5): Over

Dallas Cowboys (9.5): Under

Denver Broncos (8.5): Under

Detroit Lions (8): Under

Green Bay Packers (10): Over

Houston Texans (8.5): Over

Indianapolis Colts (9): Under

Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5): Under

Kansas City Chiefs (9): Under

Los Angeles Chargers (7.5): Over

Los Angeles Rams (5.5): Under

Miami Dolphins (7.5): Under

Minnesota Vikings (8.5): Over

New England Patriots (12.5): Over

New Orleans Saints (8): Under

New York Giants (9): Over

New York Jets (4.5): Under

Oakland Raiders (10): Over

Philadelphia Eagles (8): Over

Pittsburgh Steelers (10.5): Over

San Francisco 49ers (4.5): Under

Seattle Seahawks (10.5): Over

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.5): Under

Tennessee Titans (8.5): Over

Washington Redskins (7.5): Under

The Titans' and Panthers' over-under totals seem too low.

The AFC looks to be much weaker this year, although the Titans appear much stronger than last year's 9-7 team. With a reloaded secondary, a year of growth for quarterback Marcus Mariota and the addition of stud rookie wideout Corey Davis, the Titans could be a dark-horse contender for a bye in this year's AFC playoffs.

Carolina shored up some spots on defense when it brought back pass-rusher Julius Peppers and cornerback Captain Munnerlyn. Rookie running back Christian McCaffrey looks like a dynamic playmaker who can break games open, and defensive end Mario Addison (one of the more underrated defenders in the game, who had 9.5 sacks last year) re-signed with the team.

With a weaker schedule on tap, Carolina could well be a wild-card team.

Vegas Lines and Over-Under Predictions

Here's a look at the latest lines and over-unders, per OddsShark:

Kansas City at New England (-9 NE, 48.5 O/U): New England, Over

Atlanta at Chicago (-7 ATL, 49 O/U): Atlanta, Under

Jacksonville at Houston (-5.5 HOU, 39.5 O/U): Houston, Under

Oakland at Tennessee (-2 TEN, 50.5 O/U): Tennessee, Over

New York Jets at Buffalo (-10 BUF, 40): New York Jets, Under

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-3 CIN, 42.5): Baltimore, Under

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-8 PIT, 47): Pittsburgh, Over

Arizona at Detroit (-1.5 ARI, 48): Arizona, Under

Tampa Bay at Miami (-2.5 TB, 41): Tampa Bay, Under

Philadelphia at Washington (EVEN, 47.5): Philadelphia, Under

Indianapolis at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5 LAR, 41.5): L.A. Rams, Under

Carolina at San Francisco (-5.5 CAR, 48): Carolina, Under

Seattle at Green Bay (-3 GB, 51): Seattle, Over

New York Giants at Dallas (-4 DAL, 47.5): New York Giants, Under

New Orleans at Minnesota (-3.5 MIN, 48): New Orleans, Under

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver (-3.5 DEN, 43.5): L.A. Chargers, Under

Although running back Ezekiel Elliott will play in Week 1 against the New York Giants despite being suspended for six games (Jared Dubin of CBS Sports is here with an explanation why), this is still a tough matchup for Dallas.

The Giants have one of the best run-stopping units in football, led by defensive tackle Damon "Snacks" Harrison. The Cowboys scored just 26 points in two games against the G-Men last year, and the stars from last's year unit have all returned.

Therefore, betting the Giants at plus-four and the under at 47.5 points seems like the sharp play.

General Advice

Be wary of making bets on teams favored to win by more than one score (used liberally, let's say eight points: a touchdown plus a two-point conversion). Unless you're really confident in that team, it's a dangerous proposition.

Yes, that favored team will probably win the game outright, but anything over eight points is a lot to cover.

Take the Buffalo Bills in their matchup with the New York Jets, for example. The Bills should take care of business at home against a Jets offense that's clearly rebuilding and struggled mightily in the preseason.

But if you bet the Bills to cover, you're asking them to win by more than 10, and they have their own offensive issues to deal with as they look to rebuild for the future. Unless running back LeSean McCoy runs wild (admittedly, this is possible), then this looks like an ugly game filled with punts and field goals.

Building off that point, a good way to know how confident you are in a given spread is to predict your own score for a matchup. This isn't exactly rocket science, or a new idea either, but if you're placing some friendly wagers in Vegas, then go through the matchups one-by-one and write down what you think the final score will be for each game.

Then, compare your spreads with the ones the Vegas sportsbooks have listed. If you notice a discernible difference between the two for some matchups, then consider those games even more.

For example, I have Carolina beating San Francisco 35-10 in their opener. Yes, that seems a little generous to start, but I believe that the Panthers will be closer to their 2015 output (17 wins and a Super Bowl appearance) than their 2016 effort (six wins, 10 losses).

Also, that disappointing 2016 team beat San Francisco by 19 points last year. The 49ers are in the first year of a rebuild and need some time to jell, while the Panthers are gunning for the playoffs.

Carolina is favored by five-and-a-half points on Sunday, so the difference between the spread and my prediction is a whopping 19.5 points. I'll take my chances and place a wager on Carolina given that vast difference.

Anything above eight or nine points is noticeable, and you can feel more confident about your chances. If the difference is closer (say, a point or two), then I'll avoid that game. Also, if you think an underdog is going to win outright, you should feel good about that matchup, too.

Ultimately, you should play the matchups out in your head and figure out the game flow from there. Will it shoot out? Will it be a defensive slugfest? How will this wideout do against this secondary? And so on and so forth. That will help you make decisions on these games going forward.