Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Odds, Football Betting Pick

Alabama may be the beast of college football, but that does not necessarily make it a great bet, especially against inferior foes. In fact, the Crimson Tide are just 3-10-1 against the spread in their last 14 meetings with non-Power 5 teams. Alabama is a huge favorite for its meeting with Fresno State on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa.

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 45-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.7-3.8 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game).

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Fresno State opened the Jeff Tedford era last week with a 66-0 victory over Incarnate Word (FCS), covering as a 35-point favorite. The Bulldogs led 17-0 after one quarter and 34-0 at the half, then scored 32 points in the third quarter alone and cruised home from there.

On the night Fresno State outgained the Cardinals 613-148, as quarterback Chason Virgil hit on 16 of 29 throws for 246 yards, connecting with wide receiver KeeSean Johnson seven times for 120 yards. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs defense held the IW offense to 2.6 yards per play and minus-7 rushing yards, and recorded two safeties.

Fresno State returned 16 starters this season from a team that went 1-11 last year. But that team also lost five games in which it led in the fourth quarter. In fact, the Bulldogs are 7-2-1 ATS over their last 10 games.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The Crimson Tide opened this season with a 24-7 victory over fellow national title contender Florida State, covering at -7. Alabama trailed the Seminoles 7-3 early in the second quarter but immediately retook the lead and shut down FSU from there, allowing just 65 yards of offense in the second half.

On the night, the Tide outrushed Florida State 173-40 and won the turnover battle 3-0. Offensively Alabama held the ball for almost 33 minutes, while defensively the Tide blocked both a field goal and a punt and recovered a Seminoles fumble on a kickoff return, setting up a score. That's six years in a row now Alabama has opened its season with a convincing victory over a quality opponent.

Smart pick

The Crimson Tide will win this game, but head coach Nick Saban often seems to take it easy on lesser opponents, playing conservatively and emptying the bench. Over the last five seasons, Alabama is only 3-10 ATS when favored by 35 points or more. Meanwhile, Fresno State should be a much improved outfit from last year. The smart money here at online sports betting sites wagers the Bulldogs, plus the points.

College football betting trends

Fresno State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in September.

The total has gone under in six of Alabama's last seven games at home.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.