UTEP Miners vs. Oklahoma Sooners Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

Oklahoma is 5-1 straight up its last six times out against teams from non-Power Five conferences but only 2-4 against the spread, mainly because it's been favored by so much for most of those games. The Sooners find themselves in that position again heading into their 2017 season opener against UTEP on Saturday afternoon in Norman.

College football point spread: The Sooners opened as 48-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 56.6-15.8 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

Why the UTEP Miners can cover the spread

The Miners get back 12 starters this season from a team that disappointed at 4-8 last season. UTEP started 1-5 last year, playing through injuries at quarterback, but finished 3-3 and had chances to win two of those last three defeats. Five starters are back on offense, led by junior QB Ryan Metz (64.7 percent completions, 14-4 touchdowns to interceptions last season) and three along the offensive line. And seven starters are back on a defense that got better as last season progressed.

The last time these two teams met, back in the 2012 season opener, UTEP actually gave Oklahoma a good game, losing 24-7 but covering easily as a 29-point home dog. As for Saturday, the names may have changed but the dynamics remain the same—a big underdog taking on a local bully early in the season, getting a bunch of points.

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

Oklahoma, which placed fourth in the College Football Preseason Power Rankings at PredictionMachine.com, returns 16 starters from a team that won its last 10 games last season, ending up at No. 7 in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Nine starters are back on offense, including Heisman candidate QB Baker Mayfield (70.9 percent completions, 40-8 TD-INT last season) and the entire offensive line. And seven starters are back on defense, including six of the back seven.

The Sooners are playing their first game under new head coach Lincoln Riley, their former offensive coordinator, following the unexpected resignation of Bob Stoops over the offseason. In two seasons under Riley, the Oklahoma offense averaged 43.5 and 43.9 points per game.

Smart pick

The Sooners are going to win this game. The only thing that really matters is the final margin. Last year Oklahoma was favored by 39.5 or more points twice, winning both games easily but only splitting ATS at online betting sites.

The game they failed to cover came just before a big showdown with Ohio State. Guess who the Sooners play next week? OU will be tempted to rest starters once it takes a big lead on UTEP, and that's why the smart money here bets the Miners.

College football betting trends

Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last five games at home.

The total has gone over in five of UTEP's last seven games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.