
Predicting Outcomes for the Biggest Names on the NFL Roster Bubble
The NFL's version of the grim reaper looms over every franchise. Each organization will trim its roster from 90 to 53 players on Sept. 2.
A massive glut of talented individuals is about to have its dreams dashed. The 32 organizations will release 1,184 men prior to Saturday's 4 p.m. ET deadline.
Many were long shots to make a roster in the first place.
But some will surprise due to name recognition. Aging veterans, first-round disappointments, overpaid lackluster talents and even former Pro Bowl performers will be searching for new teams once the deadline passes.
Everyone gets excited about old faces in new places. A team must always make the best decision in regards to its roster, though. No one wants to remember Jerry Rice being released by the Denver Broncos before the 2005 campaign, but it happened.
Multiple notable names remain on the bubble, and quite a few could burst.
Available Veterans
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An attempt to trade a player often serves a precursor to his release. Cornerback Joe Haden is the most recent example.
Three significant names have been floated within the past 48 hours as being available for the right price. Each is a former Pro Bowl performer:
- RB Matt Forte, New York Jets: The 32-year-old back has two years remaining on his contract and led the Jets with 813 rushing yards in 2016. New York has gauged interest around the league, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.
- DT Sheldon Richardson, New York Jets: If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. The Jets attempted to move Richardson at last year's deadline and this year's draft. He's still available, according to 104.7 Denver's Benjamin Allbright.
- S T.J. Ward, Denver Broncos: The Broncos have four talented safeties, and Ward might find himself on another team as a result, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
- P Andy Lee, Carolina Panthers: The Panthers traded a 2018 fourth-round pick a year ago to acquire Lee from the Cleveland Browns but are now looking to flip the veteran punter, per the Charlotte Observer's Jourdan Rodrigue and Joseph Person. Rookie kicker Harrison Butker is also reportedly available.
QB Brock Osweiler, Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns are trying to dump their bad contracts at every turn, and Brock Osweiler's deal is the worst of the bunch.
Osweiler will be the Browns' highest-paid player this season—whether he's with the team or not. The quarterback's base salary is $16 million and fully guaranteed.
In order to offset some of the cost, Cleveland placed the quarterback on the trade block, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Head coach Hue Jackson named 21-year-old rookie DeShone Kizer the team's starting signal-caller after Osweiler had an opportunity to secure the position. Osweiler's performance was so bad the organization subsequently decided not to play him during the all-important third preseason contest.
As the Browns approach Thursday's meeting with the Chicago Bears, Jackson wouldn't even commit to Osweiler as the team's backup.
"I have not decided that yet," the head coach said, per Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio.
Cleveland valued the 2018 second-round pick it got from the Houston Texans more than Osweiler when the two teams completed the deal. The Browns front office knew it would have to eat some, if not all, of the quarterback's exorbitant contract.
Since teams aren't likely to trade for Osweiler, Cleveland has to decide whether it wants to absorb his contract now or release him after the 2017 campaign.
Does the organization value Osweiler enough to keep him as a backup, or is it willing to eat the guaranteed portion of his contract now? No cap penalty exists beyond this season, yet the Browns might still pay Osweiler just to go away.
Prediction: Released
RB LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles
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The Philadelphia Eagles thought their running back rotation was complete after the free-agent addition of LeGarrette Blount.
The 30-year-old veteran added a physical presence to an undersized backfield and was only a few months removed from leading the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns.
Blount hasn't performed well during his first preseason in Philadelphia and seems to have lost a step, though.
"We're not game-planning. We're not any of that," Blount said, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. "So, you've just got to wipe away the noise, don't pay attention to what you guys say. It's not all of you guys, but you don't pay attention to [critics]."
Most teams run vanilla schemes during the preseason, but the running back's play is only part of the equation. The Eagles' backfield is loaded.
Aside from Blount, Philadelphia's running back stable features Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood and rookies Donnel Pumphrey and Corey Clement, and all four add something different to the offense.
Head coach Doug Pederson employs a west coast offense where versatility is needed from its backs. The coaching staff could decide to keep those more adept in the passing game compared to Blount, who doesn't appear to have the same burst this preseason.
The Eagles aren't going to carry five running backs, and none of them are guaranteed to make the roster, including Blount.
Prediction: Retained
RB Jamaal Charles, Denver Broncos
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All careers come to an end. Jamaal Charles is closer to the end than the beginning, yet he may have earned one more year in the NFL with a strong performance during his first appearance with the Denver Broncos.
The 10-year veteran ran the ball four times for 27 yards during Saturday's 20-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers. The running back caught two passes for 15 yards, too.
More importantly, Charles looked like his old self after he battled injuries during the last two seasons and played in only eight contests. The 30-year-old made explosive cuts and left defenders sprawling.
"I thought Jamaal was impressive," Broncos head coach Vance Joseph said, per ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold. "I mean he hadn't played football in almost a year-and-a-half. To take the contact to find open space the way he did, caught the ball well and his protections were good. I was impressed with Jamaal and I was hoping he looked like that ... I was pleased."
An experienced back is what the Broncos need. C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker are both competent runners, but they're not complete. Charles is, and it's why he appears to have gone from the roster bubble to a roster certainty after Saturday's effort.
"What Jamaal brings, it's a speed element that we haven't had in a long time," Joseph said. "Third downs, catching the ball out of the backfield. He's an explosive receiver, I mean he's a guy that can make a big play at any moment. ... It's going to be a four- to five-man backfield that's going to be special in my opinion."
Prediction: Retained
WR Danny Amendola, New England Patriots
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Julian Edelman's season-ending injury changed the complexity of the New England Patriots' wide receiver corps. Danny Amendola was caught in a numbers game prior to the loss of the team's leading receiver.
Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell were counted as roster locks. Matthew Slater still serves as a special teams ace, while undrafted rookie Austin Carr has emerged as another option out of the slot.
Considering all of this talent, the 31-year-old Amendola, who has a $3.041 million cap hit, could have found himself in danger.
But Edelman's situation changed Amendola's. The nine-year veteran is now the most reliable target among the Patriots receivers. Quarterback Tom Brady could always rely on his slot receiver to run the right route and serve as his security blanket.
"I've had that [trust] with Danny, and Danny's been such a great player for us," Brady said Monday during an interview on sports radio station WEEI (via ESPN.com's Mike Reiss).
Amendola's production dipped last season with only 23 receptions for 243 yards, yet he set a career high with four touchdown catches.
The Patriots are loaded on offense, especially when you consider the talent also found at tight end and running back. Targets within the passing game will be spread thin, but Amendola's veteran presence and reliability remain more than enough for New England to retain his services.
Prediction: Retained
WR Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis Colts
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Phillip Dorsett is entering his third season, yet he's already considered a first-round disappointment. The wide receiver managed 51 receptions for 753 yards and three touchdowns during his first two campaigns.
He hasn't developed into the dynamic threat the team imagined when it spent the 29th pick in the 2015 draft to select him. Others around him continued to improve, though.
The Colts already feature last year's league-leading receiver in T.Y. Hilton. He's joined by Donte Moncrief, Quan Bray and free-agent addition Kamar Aiken. Chester Rogers established a clear lead over Dorsett as the No. 3 target early in camp, but the former undrafted free agent continues to nurse a hamstring injury.
In Rogers' absence, Dorsett led the Colts with 60 receiving yards during Saturday's 19-15 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
"I think he's as high (in terms of confidence) as he's ever been," head coach Chuck Pagano said, per the Indianapolis Star's Zak Keefer. "Forget what transpired before this. First year, second year, whatever it is. This is a good night for Phil. He made some plays and he made some contested catches, so he's going to walk out of this locker room feeling good about himself and feeling confident."
One strong performance may be enough to receive another opportunity. How effective Dorsett can actually be is debatable due to Andrew Luck's uncertain status. Even if the former top pick is released, another organization will scoop him up in an attempt to develop his potential.
Prediction: Retained
WR Victor Cruz, Chicago Bears
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The salsa king may be doing his last dance. Victor Cruz's roster spot with the Chicago Bears isn't guaranteed even after Cameron Meredith's season-ending knee injury.
Numerous wide receivers continue to jockey for position on the Bears' depth chart.
Much is expected of former top-10 pick Kevin White. He'll get every opportunity to become the team's top option in the passing game. Free-agent acquisition Kendall Wright is well-versed in Dowell Loggains' offensive scheme. Veteran Markus Wheaton is expected to play a role once he's healthy. Deonte Thompson and Josh Bellamy both serve on special teams. Even undrafted free agent Tanner Gentry has opened eyes during camps and preseason.
Cruz knows he's fighting for a roster spot.
"I always feel that way," the 30-year-old receiver said Tuesday, per CBS Chicago's Chris Emma. "Whether I was a starter or I was coming off a Super Bowl, my mindset is always like I'm fighting for a job. So I never get complacent, I never get kind of easy going in my position. I always want to have that chip on my shoulder like I’m fighting for a roster spot."
At one point, Cruz was the NFL's premier slot receiver. His window as a top target closed quickly, though, and it appears he doesn't have much left to contribute, even on a talent-strapped Bears squad.
Prediction: Released
LB Lamarr Houston, Chicago Bears
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A team must navigate free agency like it's working its way through a minefield. The Chicago Bears, for example, agreed to a five-year, $35 million with Lamarr Houston three years ago. He's played in 26 games— starting 10—during the following three campaigns.
Houston overcame two ACL tears to compete for a roster spot this summer. His status with the team isn't guaranteed, though.
"He's had a couple of injuries, one before we got here and then one last year that takes a lot of blood, sweat and tears to fight through so I have great respect for him that way, how he's handled coming back this season and what he's put on tape so far," head coach John Fox said, per CSN Chicago's JJ Stankevitz. "Obviously we're happy to have him back."
The Bears need help generating a pass rush. Former top-10 pick Leonard Floyd flashed as a rookie, but he needs a reliable bookend. Pernell McPhee only managed 10 combined sacks during the past two seasons, so Houston's possible return to form would be a major boost.
Can the once-heralded free agent still be a presence in the team's pass rush?
"We're hopeful," defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said, per the Chicago Tribune's Brad Biggs. "Until I see it, I don't know."
Financially, it makes sense for the Bears to release Houston. The organization would save $5.01 million by making the move.
Prediction: Released
LB Stephone Anthony, New Orleans Saints
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Being a first-round draft pick only means a player's journey has begun. New Orleans Saints linebacker Stephone Anthony serves as a perfect example.
Everything seemed to be on track after the Saints took the defender with the 31st pick in the 2015 NFL draft. As a rookie, Anthony started all 16 games and registered 112 total tackles, but he lost his starting job during his second campaign and is now in danger of being released.
"He's explosive, he's disruptive and yet his key-and-diagnose and his instincts at times are off," Payton said in December, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. "It's run, and he's dropping back in a pass mode. Or it's pass, and he's at the line of scrimmage. His ability to see and diagnose some very simple reads, for instance, are the keys for him getting better."
The Saints weren't willing to wait for Anthony to develop. The organization signed A.J. Klein and Manti Te'o in free agency while the young linebacker recovered from a knee injury.
New Orleans drafted Florida's Alex Anzalone in the third round of April's draft, too.
With Craig Robertson and Nate Stupar already on the roster, the Saints appear to be set at linebacker. Anthony's contract is fully guaranteed this season, but it may not be enough to keep him on the roster.
Prediction: Released
CB Sean Smith, Oakland Raiders
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Overpaid and underperforming players with off-the-field concerns usually don't last long with any team. The Oakland Raiders are still weighing all these issues with cornerback Sean Smith.
The 30-year-old Smith signed a four-year, $38 million contract prior to the 2016 campaign. He hasn't played well, though, particularly this preseason.
According to Pro Football Focus' Austin Gayle, Smith graded as the team's worst performer through the first two contests, and the coaching staff had already demoted the defensive back prior to these poor efforts.
He's not even a full-time corner anymore. Defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. has used the 6'3", 220-pound defender as a nickel linebacker in sub-packages.
Smith also faces felony assault charges after being accused of beating up his sister's boyfriend, per ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez. The Raiders still allowed him to play in the second and third preseason contests.
"Well, I think we'll let him battle, legally, what issues he has," head coach Jack Del Rio said, per Gutierrez. "I don't really have anything to add to it. I mean, I think you heard the story—he was defending his sister. Obviously, things occurred that were taken issue with, so he's having to defend himself right now."
Smith holds a $9.5 million cap hit this season whether or not he plays for the Raiders. The franchise recently displayed patience and waited for first-round pick Gareon Conley to be exonerated, and the same can happen for Smith before any decision is made regarding his status.
Prediction: Retained
S DeAngelo Hall, Washington Redskins
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Washington Redskins defensive back DeAngelo Hall still isn't ready to return after last year's season-ending knee injury, and he's expected to start the season on the physically unable to perform list. The 13-year veteran tore the ACL in his right knee during a Week 3 contest against the New York Giants.
"Dr. [James] Andrews doesn't think I'm quite ready," Hall said last week, per CSN Washington's JP Finlay. "I'm gonna take his advice."
At this point, Hall is being retained for his knowledge and veteran presence to help the young defensive backs on the roster. What he can contribute as a performer has yet to be determined.
Hall already made the move from cornerback to safety, but a starting position isn't available upon his eventual return. Su'a Cravens and D.J. Swearinger are the team's starters.
It's hard to imagine the organization taking a 33-year-old's $3.112 million cap hit for the entire season without the possibility of any on-field production.
Prediction: Released
All stats via Pro Football Reference or NFL.com unless otherwise noted. Contract numbers are courtesy of Spotrac.
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