Utah State Aggies vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds, College Football Betting Pick

Wisconsin is 14-0 straight up but only 7-7 against the spread over the last five years against non-Power 5 outfits. Utah State, meanwhile, is 0-8 SU and 2-5-1 ATS over that same span against Power 5 opponents. The Badgers will play as heavy favorites on the college football betting lines when they host the Aggies in the 2017 season opener for both teams Friday night at Camp Randall Stadium.

College football point spread: The Badgers opened as 34-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.0-12.2 Badgers (College football picks on every game)

Why the Utah State Aggies can cover the spread

USU returns 10 starters from a team hoping to bounce back from a disappointing 3-9 record last season. The Aggies had made a bowl five years in a row but lost three games last year in which they led or were tied for the lead in the fourth quarter. Five starters are back on offense, including senior quarterback Kent Myers (25 career starts) and last year's leading rusher and receiver, and five starters are back on a defense that was better than some of last year's stats might indicate.

Five years ago, the Aggies traveled to Madison and nearly pulled off an upset. They led the Badgers most of the game, and in the end missed a short field goal that would have given them the win. And while the names have changed since then, the dynamics remain the same.

Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

Wisconsin, 13th on the College Football Preseason Power Rankings at PredictionMachine.com, gets back 14 starters from a team that finished 11-3 last year and No. 9 in the final rankings. Eight starters return on offense, including sophomore QB Alex Hornibrook, last year's top two receivers and four along the offensive line. And six starters return on a defense that held foes to just 301.4 yards and 15.6 points per game last year.

The Badgers went a profitable 10-3-1 ATS last season, so they're now 17-9-1 ATS in two years under head coach Paul Chryst.

Smart pick

There's not much doubt as to the winner of this game. Wisconsin should grind out large advantages in rushing yardage and time of possession on its way to a victory. But Utah State was better than its record indicated last year and is probably getting an extra five or six points on the betting line playing on the road. The Badgers should win, but the smart money at online betting sites takes the Aggies plus the points.

College football betting trends

Wisconsin is 11-3-2 ATS in its last 16 games.

Utah State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.

The total has gone over in five of Utah State's last seven games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.