Projecting Duke's 2017-18 Rotation After Landing Marvin Bagley III
After several years of being regarded as the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2018, Marvin Bagley III announced Monday night that he will be reclassifying to 2017 and signing with Duke—a decision that will have massive ramifications on college basketball's national landscape.
The announcement put a capstone on what has already been an unbelievable offseason for Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils. They signed projected starting point guard Trevon Duval and potential starting small forward Jordan Tucker in May, got a commitment from 2018 stud point guard Tre Jones last week and now add a big man who may well be the No. 1 draft pick next June.
With all of those roster changes, what are the Blue Devils going to look like in 2017-18?
Here's our educated guess at Duke's rotation heading into the season. After all the injuries this team dealt with before the start of last year, be sure to note that a lot could change over the next three months.
Starting Point Guard: Trevon Duval
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Months before Marvin Bagley III decided to become a Blue Devil, Krzyzewski had already become one of the biggest winners of the 2017 offseason when he signed Trevon Duval in mid-May.
Prior to Duval's commitment, Duke was stuck between a rock and a hard place that didn't have a point guard to handle the rock. Grayson Allen might have been asked to do his best Jon Scheyer impression by shifting over to become the full-time ball-handler as a senior. But as long as Duval stays healthy, that experiment won't need to be made.
Having said that, Duval isn't a prototypical, pass-first point guard, though most recruiting sites would have you believe he's the best point guard in this year's class. In terms of offensive approach, he's more Russell Westbrook than Jason Kidd, as he's more likely to wow with his explosiveness and ability to play above the rim than his court vision and nifty passing.
It's never a bad thing to be compared to the reigning NBA MVP, but it does mean for a second consecutive year that the biggest preseason concern about the Blue Devils is whether they can figure out how to get a bunch of primary scorers to co-exist and distribute to each other. As long as Duval averages at least 3.5 assists per game and doesn't fall too in love with his unreliable mid-to-long-range jumper, Duke should be in great shape.
Starting Shooting Guard: Grayson Allen
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As is the case with Trevon Duval at point guard, Grayson Allen as Duke's starting shooting guard is a no-brainer.
Though he was replaced in the starting lineup by Frank Jackson for the final month of last season, Allen is the only established weapon the Blue Devils have. The rest of the roster has scored a combined total of 115 points at the collegiate level—which is less than the 137 points Allen scored by himself last November. Barring yet another injury or tripping incident, Allen should start every game and figures to be Duke's leading scorer.
However, that's assuming the good version of this polarizing player shows up on a regular basis.
Two years ago, Allen was the man for Duke. He led the team in points, assists and steals while shooting 41.6 percent from three-point range. He scored at least 14 points in all but two games, and he was battling the flu in one of those lackluster outings. Many had him pegged as the preseason National Player of the Year last summer.
But last season was an entirely different story. He failed to score 14 points in 50 percent of his games while becoming one of the most reviled players the sport has ever known.
If the sophomore-year Allen returns for a senior campaign, you're looking at the clear favorites to win the 2018 national championship. If things unravel like they did in 2016-17, though, where will Duke turn for its on-court veteran leadership?
Starting Power Forward: Marvin Bagley III
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Let's just say Marvin Bagley III didn't reclassify and choose to play at Duke so that he could ride the pine.
That decision made on an otherwise nondescript Monday night in mid-August will have a massive ripple effect on the 2017-18 season. It considerably shakes up Duke's rotation options. It vaulted the Blue Devils to the position of overwhelming favorite to win the national championship. And Bagley will enter (and possibly begin to dominate) the debate over preseason National Player of the Year honors. He will also immediately jump into the top three of every 2018 NBA mock draft worth its salt.
Yeah. He's that good.
A 6'10 ½", 221-pound power forward who could also star at the 3 or 5, there's little that Bagley cannot do. He's as quick and coordinated as a guard with the length and leaping ability of a top-notch shot blocker. It's tough to find a scouting report on him that doesn't have the word "smooth" or "fluid" dripping with anticipatory drool. It's even harder to imagine any college basketball player will have any hope of containing him if and when he develops a more reliable three-point shot.
Over the second half of last season, Coach K ran a lot of isolation plays for Jayson Tatum, putting the most NBA-ready player in the country in a position to thrive. Look for the Blue Devils to do more of the same with Bagley, repeatedly feeding him in the high post before clearing out to let him go to work. And don't be surprised when he inevitably turns a few defensive rebounds into coast-to-coast, highlight-reel plays.
Of course, this is all dependent on Bagley actually being allowed to play this season. He had already faced eligibility issues in high school, and the reason this decision came so late in the offseason was that he was trying to cram a bunch of school work into a short amount of time in order to graduate. His announcement was a big one for Duke, but the bigger one will come when the NCAA clearinghouse decides whether he can immediately suit up.
Starting Center: Marques Bolden
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Though Bagley's arrival undoubtedly makes Duke a better team, this is where we begin to see the negative impact he will have on some individual accolades.
Not 24 hours ago, Duke had a projected starting frontcourt of Wendell Carter Jr. and Marques Bolden. Now, there's only one starting spot for the two of them, and it figures to go to Bolden for a number of reasons.
First and perhaps foremost, Bolden actually has some experience in Durham. Sure, he only logged 157 minutes and 37 points as a freshman, but both of those numbers are greater than any other Blue Devil not named Grayson Allen can boast. In what figures to be a primary eight-man rotation with six freshmen, this sophomore should have a lot of value.
Second, Bolden's game pairs better with Bagley's than Carter's does. That isn't to say Bolden is better than Carter, but it doesn't make much sense to start a duo of face-up 4s while leaving two conventional centers (Bolden and Antonio Vrankovic) on the bench. There will be times when Bagley and Carter serve as the frontcourt tandem, but unless it becomes abundantly clear that Carter needs to be on the court more than Bolden, that probably won't be Duke's starting default.
Third, Bolden has a ton of untapped potential. Between his lackluster freshman season and early offseason reports that he intended to transfer, a lot of folks seem to have written him off as a guy who's never going to cut the mustard. But he was Scout's No. 8 overall recruit in last year's class, and the start of his season was derailed by a lower-leg injury that kept him out of action until December. Let's tap the brakes on shoveling dirt on this guy's career.
And, finally, it doesn't really matter. Regardless of who's out there for tipoff, Bagley, Bolden and Carter are all going to average at least 20 minutes per game, if healthy. This three-headed frontcourt monster is going to terrorize a lot of opponents.
Starting Small Forward: Jordan Tucker
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We saved small forward for last because it's the toughest nut to crack in this starting five.
Carter and Gary Trent Jr. both have a ton of potential and would be starters for about 99.5 percent of other teams. But the way this roster is constructed, Duke might be better suited bringing both freshman studs off the bench.
If Trent starts at the 3, it leaves either Alex O'Connell or Jordan Goldwire as the top backcourt reserve. This would mean Trent, Grayson Allen and Trevon Duval each plays as close to 40 minutes per game as possible, which isn't ideal. Moreover, do we think that's a backcourt that can function as a cohesive unit? Unless Allen takes a more selfless approach to his senior year, that's a lot of guards seeking their own shot.
If Carter starts at the 4 and bumps Bagley to the 3, Duke has a similar problem in the frontcourt. Instead of bringing Carter (or Bolden) off the bench, guys like Vrankovic and Javin DeLaurier would need to play a ton of minutes as reserves, unless all three of the starting big men can somehow manage to play 35 minutes per night.
The best solution would seem to be having one great guard and one great forward as the first two guys off the bench and starting Jordan Tucker at the 3.
At any rate, that seemed to be the plan before getting Bagley, as signing Tucker ASAP became Coach K's primary goal after Kevin Knox committed to Kentucky. Tucker has great three-point range and could fill the type of role Rodney Hood played for Duke in 2013-14, albeit as the fifth option in this offense as opposed to the second.
The Reserves
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Primary Backcourt Reserve: Gary Trent Jr.
Primary Frontcourt Reserve: Wendell Carter Jr.
Occasional Contributors: Alex O'Connell, Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Antonio Vrankovic, Jordan Goldwire, Justin Robinson, Brennan Basser
Overall depth was once the biggest concern for this team, but it has somehow become a strength for the Blue Devils.
Even if we're wrong about Tucker getting a starting job and it instead goes to Trent or Carter, Duke will still have the luxury of bringing one 5-star recruit and a trio of 4-star players off the bench. That's nothing new for a team that seems to always have a McDonald's All-American buried somewhere on its depth chart, but it's a perk that wasn't expected earlier this offseason.
But how deep will Duke even need to go this year?
A rash of injuries necessitated a ton of roster combinations last season, but the Blue Devils only played eight guys during the second half of their 2015 national championship campaign. If the primary seven or eight players can stay healthy in 2017-18, reserves like White, DeLaurier and Vrankovic should only see the court in blowouts.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames. Recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com. Advanced stats courtesy of Sports-Reference and KenPom.com.
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