Predicting Progression, Regression for Pittsburgh Steelers' Top Players

If everything stayed the same in the NFL year after year, there would be nothing all that compelling about it. But teams change; there are player additions and subtractions, coaches get fired and hired and teams invariably take steps both forward and backward from the previous season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were an 11-5 team in 2016 and reached the AFC Championship game thanks to the performance of their many talented players. But not all of those roster keystones are guaranteed to play just as well as they did.

At the same time, other players who may not have done much to turn heads last year could be poised to take on bigger roles in the upcoming season. Steps forward are paired with steps backward, and either can happen for a number of reasons.

With that in mind, here are key Steelers players who are set to make progress in the 2017 season and others who may be in line to regress.

LB Bud Dupree: Progression

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Last season was supposed to be the big breakout year for the Steelers' 2015 first-round draft pick Bud Dupree.

The outside linebacker, who totaled four sacks and 26 combined tackles as a rookie, was poised to take a bigger role as a pass-rusher. But a groin injury suffered during last year's training camp lingered into the regular season, eventually landing him on injured reserve. As such, Dupree appeared in only nine regular-season games (and three more in the postseason).

But Dupree made the most of his playing time. Though on the field for just 30.4 percent of the Steelers' total defensive snaps, according to Football Outsiders, he totaled 24 regular-season tackles and another 15 in the playoffs. He also had 4.5 sacks in the regular season—second only to James Harrison's five—and another half-sack in the postseason. 

Given Dupree's partial-season production a year ago, there's no question that he should have an even bigger and better 2017 granted that health is no longer an issue.

He should spend the entire year as the Steelers' starting outside linebacker on the left side and with defensive coordinator Keith Butler putting the pass-rushing focus on three- and four-man pressures, Dupree should have plenty of opportunities to build upon what he accomplished in 2016.

At the least, Dupree seems poised to take enough of a leap forward to be the Steelers' sack leader this year.

LB James Harrison: Regression

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Watching the Steelers defense a year ago, viewers would have no idea that outside linebacker James Harrison was 38 years old. He was the team's sack leader, with five in the regular season (and another 2.5 in the playoffs) and totaled 53 tackles (plus 20 more in the postseason). But Harrison is in the final years of his career and, at 39 years old, may finally have a more limited role in Pittsburgh's defense in 2017.

For one, Dupree being at full health means that Harrison isn't heading into the season to be an injury fill-in on any snaps on the left side. Another reason is the presence of T.J. Watt, the Steelers' 2017 first-round draft pick.

With the Steelers trying to keep Harrison fresh through the summer (and the fact that his veteran status no longer requires him to be a full participant in training camp practices or preseason games) Watt has spent OTAs and minicamp as the first-team right outside linebacker.

Watt has taken to the role quickly and nearly flawlessly; if his accelerated development stays on track through the remainder of the summer, then Watt will certainly force his way on the field early and often, thus relegating Harrison to a backup and situational role. 

To be certain, it will be impossible for the Steelers to limit Harrison's playing time too much this year given how competitive he is and also how talented. But with Dupree healthy and Watt's stock rapidly on the rise, Harrison doesn't seem poised to be a top performer on the defense this season.

TE Xavier Grimble: Progression

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Though Jesse James will be the top tight end on the Steelers' depth chart this season, another player at the position is poised to have a strong 2017. That would be Xavier Grimble, an undrafted player whom the Steelers signed last January. 

Grimble appeared in 13 games for the Steelers in 2016, with two starts. And though he caught only 11 passes on 21 targets, two of those receptions went for touchdowns.

The potential Grimble showed as a receiving threat and touchdown-scorer likely helped influence the Steelers' decision to not add another tight end in this year's draft. The subsequent release of Ladarius Green also has Grimble's stock on the rise for the upcoming season.

Pittsburgh's offense isn't lacking in passing targets for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. As such, receiver Demarcus Ayers told the Pittsburgh Sports Daily Bulletin's Ron Lippock in June that the Steelers will be employing more four-receiver sets this year (h/t Steelers Depot).

However, that does not mean that this new strategy will be limited to receivers, as a position, but rather any player who can catch passes for the Steelers. Therefore, opportunities will increase for a number of players, Grimble included.

The Steelers are now in a situation to exploit numerous mismatches and would be wise to make some of those two-tight end looks, with James and Grimble on the field together along with key receivers like Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Grimble showed flashes of his capabilities a season ago, and this year should see more playmaking chances being given to him.

RB Le'Veon Bell: Regression

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There's little chance that Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell will take an appreciable step backward as a rusher this year.

He's firmly the team's No. 1 back and should have no trouble earning well over 1,000 yards rushing even if he opts to hold out for a week or two in protest of being given the franchise tag this year and not getting the contract he believes he deserves.

Bell believes that he should be paid a contract that splits the difference between a No. 1 running back and a No. 2 wide receiver—not an unreasonable request given that he was, in fact, Pittsburgh's second-leading receiver a season ago (as well as in 2014). But receiving is the area in which Bell is best poised to regress this year.

Roethlisberger's receiving options have greatly expanded from their 2016 levels. Bryant has returned from his year-long suspension. The team added JuJu Smith-Schuster in the second round of the 2017 draft. Free agent Justin Houston was brought in during the spring.

Sammie Coates is currently recovering from a knee scope he underwent in mid-July (thus costing him the start of training camp), but he will be another target for Roethlisberger's passes when healthy.

Eli Rogers is, for now, the team's main slot receiver. Tight ends James and Grimble will also be catching their fair share of passes this year. And of course there's Brown, the Steelers' top wideout, who should reprise his role as the team's receiving leader.

Simply put, Roethlisberger's passes can now be spread around to more players than a year ago, therefore making it possible to reduce the reliance on Bell as a receiver. In this scenario, it's only logical that Bell would see a regression when it comes to his statistics in the passing game.

CB Ross Cockrell: Progression

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Last season was a good one for Steelers cornerback Ross Cockrell. He became a full-season starter, he led the team in passes defensed with 14, he had 62 combined tackles in the regular season and another 17 in the playoffs and, according to Pro Football Focus, he allowed only two touchdowns in 93 passes thrown his way, with the longest reception just 37 yards.

How could Cockrell have an even better 2017? By picking off opposing quarterbacks.

The door is certainly open, with the Steelers also employing more man coverage in the secondary than they have in recent years (they worked out of zone coverage more than any other team save the Tennessee Titans in 2016, according to Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson).

Cockrell being on a relative island shadowing opposing receivers should give him more chances to make plays on the football and, in turn, pick off more passes.

It also presents opportunities for Cockrell to again be the Steelers' leader in passes defensed and to build upon his tackling totals from a year ago.

If he could limit receivers to just two touchdowns while working against him in a zone scheme in 2016, then Cockrell should be able to replicate that success—and then some—in man-to-man situations. Cockrell is being handed even better opportunities to make plays in the Steelers' passing defense this year.

QB Ben Roethlisberger: Regression

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Steelers quarterback Roethlisberger is still in the prime of his career, as evidenced by how well he performed in 2016. In 14 regular-season games played, he completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,819 yards and threw 29 touchdowns to 13 interceptions while being sacked a mere 17 times.

He had another 735 yards passing in the postseason (and a completion percentage of 66.7), and though he threw three touchdowns to four interceptions in those three games, he still took just two sacks.

With Roethlisberger set to have a full complement of receiving weapons available to him this season, there's every reason to believe that his yards and touchdowns will only increase, as could his completion percentage. But there is one area in which he is poised to take a step backward, and that's sacks taken.

It's not just a matter of Pittsburgh's offensive line–which Pro Football Focus ranks third in the league heading into the season—struggling to protect him, but rather the overwhelming glut of receiving options that will lead to Roethlisberger being taken down potentially twice as many times as he was a year ago.

His desire to make plays—and extend them, as is his style—could again open him up to taking a beating from opposing defenses. 

Further, Roethlisberger's personal-best sack percentage of 3.2 isn't sustainable. It's never been that low in any other point in his career. While that does not necessarily mean it will climb to 2009's rate of 9 percent or 2013's rate of 6.7 percent, it could start trending closer to the league average, which was 6.1 percent in 2016, according to Football Outsiders.

While the Steelers' offensive line is certainly one of the overall best in the league, the unpredictable nature of Roethlisberger's playing style always makes him a difficult quarterback to protect. And with Roethlisberger likely heading towards a season where he may set a new career-high in passing attempts simply because of the many players he has as available targets, his sack rate should increase.