Predicting Progression, Regression for Chicago Bears' Top Players

To most, the Chicago Bears seem like a team on the rise.

It's a fair assessment given the past few years of major overhaul put on by a patient front office fully bought into what general manager Ryan Pace continues to sell.

The on-paper outlook seems great—the Bears have a potential improvement under center with Mike Glennon, the possible future of the franchise behind him and new faces at premium spots such as cornerback and wideout.

But a few Bears are locks to regress in 2017.

Regression is a simple fact of the NFL. It can combine with age to form a nasty combination, as can injuries or a team simply changing around a player.

Below, let's predict a few candidates for progression and regression in 2017.

Cameron Meredith

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Cameron Meredith isn't just one of the biggest progression candidates for the Bears in 2017—he's one of the league's biggest breakout candidates. 

Seriously, get ready for an onslaught of fantasy football analysis along these lines. We're talking about a former undrafted free agent who dropped 66 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns a year ago while guys like Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer took snaps from under center.

In fact, Meredith looked so good the Bears didn't go out of their way to give him competition for the No. 1 slot on the depth chart—they brought on guys to complement him instead.

Meredith's natural progression paired with better weapons around him—meaning improved spacing throughout the attack, as well as more consistent play from under center—should see him easily topple the numbers he put up last year in a supposed breakout year.

Verdict: Progression

Akiem Hicks

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Akiem Hicks was a breakout star for the Bears a year ago, so much so that it's not uncommon to hear fans pounding the table for him receiving an extension from the front office. 

While justified, tempering expectations a bit might be a good approach.

Hicks had played for two different teams since entering the league in 2012 before joining the Bears and exploding under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He posted seven sacks and looked like one of the league's best 3-4 ends despite countless injuries to the unit around him.

Those injuries, though, are part of the reason Hicks could take a step back in production in 2017.

In theory, Eddie Goldman at the nose won't be as hurt as last year. At the opposite end, Jonathan Bullard should at least push Mitch Unrein, while new faces such as John Jenkins and Jaye Howard add much-needed depth.

So, while Hicks might play about the same, his numbers may take a dip. It's not necessarily a bad thing, though, as it would serve as another reason fans should know numbers only go so far.

Verdict: Regression

Jordan Howard

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Jordan Howard caught most of the NFL off guard last year—well, those who noticed the Indiana rookie from the fourth round finishing second behind only Ezekiel Elliott in rushing, at least. 

Now the question centers on whether the 22-year-old can do it again.

He certainly has the right mindset, something he detailed in a feature with Bleacher Report's Dan Pompei recently.

"I'm always going to have a chip on my shoulder," Howard said. "I'm always thinking I have to prove somebody wrong. I'm going to keep showing what I can do. I know things can change at any moment. A guy can take my spot just like it happened to me."

Breaking through 1,313 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie while averaging north of five yards per carry isn't an easy feat. But those same improvements and players staying healthy around Hicks will do the opposite and help Howard.

To cut a long story short, he's still running behind one of the league's best interior lines and is improving by the week. And the improved passing game means defenses have to respect it, even if they're now fully aware of the threat Howard poses.

Verdict: Progression

Victor Cruz

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

For those unfamiliar with his career as of late, Victor Cruz remains on a downswing, hence his getting only a one-year deal.

Cruz seems like a big-name addition, though. In the confines of Chicago's situation, however, there's an outside chance he ends up on the cut list by summer's end.

After all, the Bears have Meredith, followed by new adds Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright, not to mention Kevin White and even intriguing upside names like Josh Bellamy.

At 30 years old, Cruz doesn't have much to offer on special teams and versatility is where guys will win out near the back end of the roster.

This doesn't mean Cruz won't make the roster, especially based on how he could impact a younger locker room. But hitting close to 72 targets or 586 yards as he did a year ago with the New York Giants seems out of the question.

Verdict: Regression

Leonard Floyd

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Feel free to call Leonard Floyd the Jordan Howard of the defense in 2017. 

If Floyd takes a strong second-year jump, the entire defense will improve by a wide margin in terms of effectiveness.

After all, he piled up seven sacks over all of 12 games last year while adapting to the league as a rookie and playing at what seemed like a tad undersized. Don't forget the nagging injuries, either.

All that should take a turn for the better in 2017, health permitting. Floyd is visibly heavier this year and a natural sophomore bump suggests the coaching staff won't be as uncomfortable with him in passing situations, meaning more snaps and chances to impact games while collecting individual numbers.

Based on flashes from last year alone and extending them over a full 16 games, Floyd has a double-digit sack season on the way. Add in the other positives, and although a cliche, the sky is truly the limit.

Verdict: Progression

Pernell McPhee

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

At the time of his signing in 2015, Pernell McPhee looked like a major win for the Bears and a bedrock of a presence for a rebuild.

McPhee had been an iron man of sorts over the course of his first four years in the NFL, where he only missed four games with the Baltimore Ravens while tallying 16.5 sacks.

While he has 10 sacks over two seasons in Chicago, McPhee has also missed nine games. He's effective when on the field, but he's entering this summer slimmer than usual, which could have untold consequences on his play and ability to stay healthy.

These are notable question marks, and the continued emergence of Floyd and the possible return of an edge player like Lamarr Houston muddies the rotation.

From a numbers standpoint, McPhee figures to take a dip, provided he can stay on the field. The unit around him keeps improving, and he's running out of time to make the expected, consistent impact, especially with the Bears able to sever ties from his contract after the season. 

Verdict: Regression

All contract information courtesy of Spotrac unless otherwise specified. Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.