Home Run Derby 2017: Breaking Down Bracket's Top Participants

The 2017 MLB Home Run Derby will take place on Monday at 8 p.m. ET. ESPN will broadcast the event, and fans can live-stream the action on WatchESPN.

This year's contest should be one of the best we've seen since the Derby began in 1985. We have rookie sluggers tearing up the league alongside the defending Derby champion Giancarlo Stanton playing in his home stadium.

The new timed format has also proved to be an exciting success (and efficient, as the Derby no longer drags on forever), so this should be a fun exhibition.

Here's a look at the bracket and a quick breakdown of each participant. The batters are ranked from least to most likely to win the Home Run Derby.

Bracket

8. Mike Moustakas

The Kansas City Royals third baseman is enjoying the best season of his career, as he's hit 25 home runs in the first half of the year. To put that number in perspective, Moose's previous season high is 22, so he's eclipsed that mark by three dingers in just 78 games.

Moustakas is on pace for nearly 50 home runs, but eventually, he will come back to Earth at some point. Still, his numbers this year are undoubtedly impressive, and it begs the question as to whether we'll see increased power numbers from him over the next few seasons.

7. Justin Bour

Like Moustakas, Miami Marlins first baseman Justin Bour is having the best power year of his career, and it isn't even close. Bour has hit 20 home runs in his first 77 games this year, with his previous high being 23 in 129 games during the 2015 season.

Bour joined the bigs during his age-26 season in 2014, so he's emerged a bit later than usual. He has a tough matchup with Aaron Judge in the opening round, although Bour should have the Miami home crowd cheering him on.

6. Gary Sanchez

Keep an eye on the New York Yankees catcher for a possible dark-horse run to the final. Yes, he has a difficult matchup in the first round, as he faces Stanton, the hometown favorite, but Sanchez can hit the ball to orbit.

According to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, Sanchez is second in the MLB in true home run distance at 420.9 feet. If he gets into a groove, then Stanton could be out in the first round.

Still, Sanchez's chances are hurt significantly by his difficult draw. He could potentially face a murderer's row of Stanton, Minnesota Twins third baseman Miguel Sano and Judge in order, and that's probably too tall of a task for any player to handle.

5. Cody Bellinger

The Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder/first baseman has hit home runs in bunches this year, as he smacked 10 dingers in 10 games during one stretch this season.

Bellinger, whose father Clay was a utility man for the New York Yankees and is now a firefighter in Arizona, has hit 25 homers in just 70 games. To put that number in perspective, Bellinger is hitting one out every three games he plays on average.

Naturally, he hits the ball very hard. According to FanGraphs, Bellinger's hard-hit contact rate is 46.0 percent, which is seventh in all of baseball.

The problem for Bellinger is his draw, as he has a tough matchup with an MVP candidate in Round 1 and would likely face Aaron Judge in Round 2. Still, Bellinger has been fantastic this year, and a Derby run wouldn't be surprising.

4. Charlie Blackmon

A candidate for the National League MVP award, the Colorado Rockies outfielder is one of the main reasons why the Colorado Rockies are holding down one of the National League wild-card spots.

Blackmon is leading MLB in hits, triples and total bases, and he has 20 home runs to go along with a .955 OPS. While Blackmon is helped significantly by playing in hitter-friendly Coors Field half the time, he is still a solid home run hitter regardless.

According to ESPN's Home Run Tracker, Blackmon is 16th in the league in true home run distance at 416.4 feet. He should have a good Derby, although like Bellinger, he has a tough draw.

3. Miguel Sano

The Minnesota Twins third baseman is sixth in the league in hard-hit contact rate at 46.4 percent, per FanGraphs. In tough Marlins Park, where it's difficult to hit homers, that's a huge boost to Sano's chances to advance through the Derby.

Sano has 21 home runs, which doesn't rank as well as others in the Derby field, but keep in mind that he is boom-or-bust at the plate. He leads the league in strikeouts with 120 this year. In other words, he is striking out more than one out of every three times he goes to the plate. That obviously lowers his power numbers.

But striking out isn't going to be an issue when people are throwing batting practice lobs, so that's a huge advantage in Sano's favor. If Stanton or Judge don't win this event, then the pick is Sano to take the crown, as the Derby is right in his wheelhouse.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton has three obvious advantages.

First, he dominated the Home Run Derby last year, hitting 61 home runs in three rounds. He has experience and has found success in the new timed format.

Second, he'll have tens of thousands of local fans cheering him on. Behind the power of the home crowd, Stanton has a distinct edge.

Third, Stanton can hit the ball very far, which can only help him gain the 30-second bonus, which is given to players who hit two homers of at least 440 feet in a round.

However, the hottest home run hitter in baseball resides on the other side of the bracket. If it weren't for him, the pick would be Stanton hands down.

1. Aaron Judge

The New York Yankees outfielder's first half of the 2017 MLB season is legendary, and that's in part because Judge struggled so much last year, striking out 42 times in 95 plate appearances.

But Judge quickly turned it around this year, as he's smacked 30 home runs (to go along with a league-leading 1.139 OPS) to lead MLB.

Many of Judge's home runs have been moonshots, and if those hits are any indication, that can only help Judge crank some long homers out of Marlins Park, which is a bit cavernous thanks to its deep alleys.

Take Judge to win the Home Run Derby over Giancarlo Stanton in a fantastic final.