Former 5-Star CBB Recruits Who Will Have the Biggest Impact in 2017-18
It sometimes feels like every 5-star college basketball freshman takes the one-and-done path to the NBA, but a few always stick around—much to the chagrin of opposing fans. It's because of former high school phenoms such as Duke's Grayson Allen, Michigan State's Miles Bridges and Arizona's Allonzo Trier that those teams rank among the favorites to win the 2018 national championship.
With the July live signing period about to begin, all eyes are on the 5-star studs in the 2018-20 classes. But let's not forget about the best of the best from 2014 through '16 who'll dominate both the conference and national preseason Player of the Year conversations for the next four months.
The following rankings are based on a combination of individual and team expectations. Playing for a title contender doesn't guarantee a former 5-star recruit a spot in the top 10, nor does playing for a basement dweller exclude a player from the top 10. But, ideally, we're looking for Wooden Award candidates on Final Four contenders.
Honorable Mentions
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Derryck Thornton Jr. and Shaqquan Aaron, USC
Here's a sentence one could not have dreamed of typing five years ago: USC might have two former 5-star recruits coming off the bench. Granted, head coach Andy Enfield and the Trojans didn't sign either of these studs out of high school, but both Thornton and Aaron are a huge reason this team has the depth and talent to win the Pac-12.
Joshua Langford, Michigan State
Rawle Alkins, Arizona
Marques Bolden, Duke
Omari Spellman, Villanova
VJ King, Louisville
We limited each team to one representative in the top 10, and each of these players has a teammate at or near the top of the list. Even without that limitation, though, Alkins was the only one who was tempting to rank. With the possible exception of King, each of these guys should be a starter and could put up big numbers. However, they don't come with the certainty of our top 10.
Andrew Jones, Texas
Though the Longhorns were a 22-loss disaster, Jones had a solid freshman season, averaging 11.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. The addition of Mo Bamba could help turn Jones into a star.
Mustapha Heron, Auburn
It's something you've probably heard in each of the past three summers, but this might be the year Bruce Pearl turns Auburn into a contender. At the very least, the Tigers should vie for a spot in the NCAA tournament, and Heron will be their leader. He shot 42.3 percent from three and put up 15.2 points per game as a freshman.
Keita Bates-Diop, Ohio State
A high ankle sprain and a subsequent leg stress fracture resulted in Bates-Diop's appearing in just nine games in 2016-17, but he'll be a huge part of Ohio State's effort to get back on the right track. With Trevor Thompson out of the picture, look for Bates-Diop to become a major interior presence, particularly in the shot-blocking department.
Marcus Lee, California
Lee is finally in a position where he can thrive without looking over his shoulder to find out if another 5-star recruit is coming off the bench to replace him. Unfortunately, he's essentially flying solo after the Golden Bears lost all four of their leading scorers, their backup point guard and their head coach. Lee could average 18 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks per contest, but it might be for a team that loses 20 games.
10. Jalen Adams, Connecticut
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2016-17 Stats: 14.4 PPG, 6.1 APG, 4.2 RPG, 17.8 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 18 in 2015
A key part of making a significant impact is playing for a team that is nationally relevant. In that regard, Jalen Adams is at a huge disadvantage compared to every other player on the list.
While most of these guys are on teams that should open the season in the AP Top 25, Connecticut isn't even projected to reach the NCAA tournament, based on Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology.
Don't blame Adams, though. He put up great numbers last season, leading the Huskies in both points and assists. Expect more of the same this year, particularly now that Rodney Purvis is out of the picture.
He just doesn't have much of a supporting cast to work with. Amida Brimah and Kentan Facey both graduated, and Vance Jackson, Juwan Durham and Steven Enoch all transferred. This leaves Terry Larrier—who has appeared in just four games in a Connecticut uniform—as the only returning player taller than 6'3" with any experience.
Connecticut did add a handful of transfers and is expecting big things from redshirt freshman Mamadou Diarra, but even in an AAC that has next to nothing worth mentioning beyond Wichita State and Cincinnati, it's going to be an uphill battle for Adams and Co.
9. Theo Pinson, North Carolina
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2016-17 Stats: 6.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.9 SPG, 14.1 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 19 in 2014
Injuries robbed Theo Pinson of what could have been a bigger role for the national champions. He missed the first 16 games of the season due to a broken bone in his foot. A few weeks later, he was sidelined for another three games after rolling his ankle.
Though Pinson set new career highs in points, rebounds and assists per game while playing in the starting lineup over the final third of the year, it wasn't nearly the breakout campaign many of us were anticipating. He never became a focal point of the offense. Pinson only attempted 13.8 percent of the team's shots while he was on the floor. He was the only UNC starter below 20 percent in that department.
Will that change in 2017-18, or is Pinson destined to a life as a complementary piece who plays solid defense as a small forward and racks up assists like a point guard?
The opportunity for change will be there. Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Tony Bradley and Nate Britt are all gone, leaving the Tar Heels with Joel Berry II and a ton of spots to be filled. Pinson will be a no-doubt starter and should be one of the leading scorers. We'll just have to see if he can improve upon his career 38.8 field-goal percentage enough to be trusted with more shots.
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8. Wenyen Gabriel, Kentucky
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2016-17 Stats: 4.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 0.9 BPG, 13.1 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 12 in 2016
Wenyen Gabriel's ranking was the toughest to figure out, by far.
Based on last year's stats, he doesn't belong in the top 10. Heck, he probably doesn't even belong in the top 20. Among the 5-star guys who played in 2016-17, only Marques Bolden (1.5), Chase Jeter (2.6) and Nick King (3.3) averaged fewer points per game. Gabriel wasn't exactly getting better with age, either. Over the final 13 games of the season, he shot 1-of-15 from two-point range, scoring just 18 points while committing eight turnovers.
But based on returning rosters, one could easily make a case for Gabriel in the top five—if not No. 1. Kentucky lost every other player who scored at least 1.1 points per team game. So, despite playing his way out of the starting lineup at the end of last season, Gabriel is unequivocally the veteran leader of this roster.
Then again, the Wildcats are bringing in six 5-star recruits and a total of eight top-100 guys, so they might not have that much use for Gabriel—particularly if the four frontcourt freshmen (Kevin Knox, Jarred Vanderbilt, P.J. Washington and Nick Richards) are as good as advertised.
In the end, though, we're talking about the top returning scorer for a team that will open the season ranked in the Top 10 of the AP poll. It'd be impossible to justify putting that guy any lower on the list.
7. Malik Newman, Kansas
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2015-16 Stats: 11.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 APG, 37.9 3P%, 12.4 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 10 in 2015
Trying to replace a Wooden Award winner has been notoriously difficult. Oklahoma went from the Final Four directly to 20 losses after losing Buddy Hield. Wisconsin went to back-to-back Final Fours with Frank Kaminsky and nearly missed the tournament the year after he graduated. Creighton went 14-19 after losing Doug McDermott, and Kentucky's infamous Robert Morris NIT loss came the year after Anthony Davis won the Wooden Award.
So, best of luck to Kansas as Malik Newman attempts to fill Frank Mason III's massive shoes.
It should be noted that in each of the above scenarios, there wasn't a suitable replacement for any of those stars, and each one was part of a near-total roster overhaul. In retrospect, it's not the least bit surprising that those teams struggled to find their way.
That isn't the case for the Jayhawks, though. Newman is more than capable of immediately taking over one part of KU's dual-combo-guard backcourt, and he is surrounded by valuable returning assets such as Devonte' Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Lagerald Vick and Udoka Azubuike.
At any rate, Newman is being given a much greater opportunity for success than the one he had at Mississippi State two years ago. As long as he learned how to shoot better than 40.7 percent from two-point range during his year off, he should be the breakout star of the Big 12.
6. Thomas Welsh, UCLA
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2016-17 Stats: 10.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 1.0 APG, 23.8 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 17 in 2014
UCLA was the most talked-about team in the country last season. Four regulars shot better than 41 percent from three-point range in what was arguably the most fluid, fun-to-watch offense of the past decade. And between the Steve Alford-to-Indiana rumors and all of the things LaVar Ball said, the drama away from the court was just as addictive.
In all that hoopla, Thomas Welsh was the most underappreciated star of this six-man show.
In addition to his ability to make a 16-foot baseline jumper look as easy as a layup, Welsh showed two things you have to love. First, he shot 89.4 percent from the free-throw line, which is not something you typically see from a 7-foot center. Second, he only committed 14 turnovers, ranking fifth in the nation in turnover percentage—a category usually dominated by spot-up shooting guards who aren't asked to dribble or rebound.
As a result, Welsh was one of the most efficient players in the country.
Can he continue to thrive while inheriting a bigger piece of the spotlight? Save for Aaron Holiday, every noteworthy piece from last year's roster is gone, which might make Welsh the most important player in the Pac-12. Even if stud freshmen Jaylen Hands, Kris Wilkes and Cody Riley somehow hit the ground running as well as Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf did this past season, Welsh's consistency and veteran presence should make him the star of the show.
5. Deng Adel, Louisville
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2016-17 Stats: 12.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.1 APG, 34.9 3P%, 16.3 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 23 in 2015
With roughly four months remaining until the regular season begins, it has already been a whirlwind of an offseason for Louisville. After opening things up as a top-five team in many way-too-early top 25s, the Cardinals lost Donovan Mitchell and Jaylen Johnson as early draft declarations. They landed 5-star wing Brian Bowen in early June, but they found out less than two weeks later that Rick Pitino will be suspended for five games and the 2013 national championship is in jeopardy as fallout from the sex scandal that broke in October 2015.
Even Deng Adel's decision to return to school made Louisville fans sweat, as he waited until two days before the withdrawal deadline to make up his mind.
It ended up being a decision that will make a lot of other fans sweat, as it could have massive ramifications on the 2017-18 ACC hierarchy.
Late in the season, Adel gave us a glimpse into Louisville's future. He scored at least 16 points in five of his final six games, including topping 20 points for the first and second times in his college career. And that was with Mitchell still in the picture and taking more than 13 shots per game, so imagine what Adel might be able to do once he's cemented as the No. 1 option in this offense.
4. Jalen Brunson, Villanova
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2016-17 Stats: 14.7 PPG, 4.1 APG, 2.6 RPG, 0.9 SPG, 37.8 3P%, 23.3 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 26 in 2015
The top three guys on this list will likely all be preseason first-team All-Americans—particularly with the voters who kindly ask that you stay off their lawn while they abstain from considering freshmen for such an honor—but Jalen Brunson shouldn't be far behind them as a potential second- or third-team guy.
Villanova was the Josh Hart show last season, but Brunson stole that show on numerous occasions.
In mid-February, there was a three-game stretch of road games in which Brunson averaged 19.0 points, 7.0 assists and 2.0 turnovers while pacing the Wildcats to back-to-back-to-back wins by at least 13-point margins. It's no coincidence that it was during his best run of the year that Villanova most looked like a team headed for a second straight national championship.
The Wildcats also get back Mikal Bridges, Eric Paschall and Donte DiVincenzo, as well as redshirt freshman Omari Spellman and redshirt junior Phil Booth, who only lasted three games into the 2016-17 season before injury. But Brunson is at the heart of Villanova's realistic aspirations for a fifth consecutive NCAA tournament as either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. He might put up 20 points and five assists per game.
3. Allonzo Trier, Arizona
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2016-17 Stats: 17.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.7 APG, 39.1 3P%, 23.1 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 20 in 2015
As mentioned, all three of these top guys ought to be preseason first-team All-Americans. Though they're listed as Nos. 1, 2 and 3, they're really Nos. 1a, 1b and 1c. After much internal hemming and hawing, I put Allonzo Trier third due to missed time.
However, though he missed more than half of the season for a performance-enhancing drug suspension, Trier made a huge impact on the national landscape when he returned. In his first game back, he was a key part of road win over UCLA that put Arizona front and center in the national championship race.
It wasn't until a month later that he started to hit his stride, though. Trier averaged 20.6 points and shot 44.4 percent from three-point range over his final 10 games, scoring at least 18 in all but one.
Maybe he felt he owed something to the university and head coach Sean Miller for sticking with him through the suspension, but for the second straight year, it was a bit of a surprise to see Trier return for another season. Given how well he played over those final five weeks, it's hard to believe he has anything left to prove to NBA scouts.
But color us excited for the possibility that 10-game stretch was just a preview of the dominant 35-40 games that lie ahead.
2. Miles Bridges, Michigan State
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2016-17 Stats: 16.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.5 BPG, 38.9 3P%, 23.1 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 14 in 2016
Prior to Miles Bridges' decision to return for a sophomore year at Michigan State, you couldn't find a draft expert who didn't think he would be a lottery pick.
A physical standout who threw down vicious dunks like they were nothing, Bridges' ceiling is hard to guess. Starting with a 33-point explosion against Purdue in late January, Bridges scored at least 14 points in each of his final 15 games.
And that was after missing December with an ankle injury. Had he been healthy for the entire season, maybe he'd have put up even more impressive numbers and bolted to become a top-five pick.
Instead, Bridges is sticking around for (at least?) one more year, and the Spartans will likely open the season at No. 1 in the AP poll as a result. He'll get a lot of love in the preseason Player of the Year conversation as well.
1. Grayson Allen, Duke
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2016-17 Stats: 14.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 36.5 3P%, 19.3 PER
Recruiting Rank: No. 22 in 2014
After Grayson Allen's breakout performance in the 2015 Final Four—and long before the tripping incidents that have left an untreatable stain on his last two seasons—I wrote about his destiny to become the next great polarizing Duke star. But even then, I never would have guessed he would still be playing college basketball in 2017-18.
Based on the vitriolic response that he gets from opposing fans and the fact that even casual followers could probably pick him out of a lineup, there's a strong case to be made that Allen will have a larger overall impact on the season than any other player. Factor in his ability to play, and this was almost a no-brainer.
Allen's stats weren't quite as impressive as those of Bridges or Trier, but keep in mind everything he endured. He suffered a toe injury in November, dislocated his pinky finger in January and hurt his ankle in February. Combine that physical pain with the mental/emotional distress from the tripping backlash and suspension and it's hard to believe he put up the numbers he did.
Of the eight Blue Devils who scored at least 40 points last season, Allen is the only one returning, so there's no question he will be the veteran leader of this bunch. How he handles that pressure could decide the 2018 national championship. Because if he can stay healthy and avoid another controversy, Allen could do incredible things in his final season.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames. Recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com. Advanced stats courtesy of Sports-Reference and KenPom.com.
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