Grabbing the Throne: Ranking Programs' Chances of Being the Next CFB Dynasty
USC was the college football team to beat from 2002-08, and the Trojans rank among our top candidates to put together another dynasty through the end of this decade.
Your definition of a dynasty may drastically differ from ours, but the goal of this article is to identify the programs most likely to win at least one national championship and reach at least three College Football Playoff semifinals in the next four years.
Each team on the list is a strong candidate to reach this year's CFP. However, this isn't meant to be a ranking of current national championship odds. Rather, based on a combination of current rosters and recent/future recruiting classes, these are the teams that ought to spend the next four years at or near the top of their respective power conferences.
Honorable Mentions
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Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is among the top candidates to reach this year's College Football Playoff, but will that be the case in subsequent seasons after Baker Mayfield graduates? If nothing else, the Sooners have loaded up at linebacker in recent recruiting classes and appear to be on the path to becoming the best defense in the Big 12.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions are recruiting much better than they did in the early 2010s in the aftermath of the Jerry Sandusky scandal, but they still have work to do to close that gap with Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State will be a strong national contender this year. If both Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley leave for the 2018 NFL draft, though, vying for future Big Ten East crowns will be a struggle.
Auburn Tigers
Though the Tigers are loaded at running back and should be in great shape at quarterback with the addition of Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham, it'll be all but impossible to start a dynasty in the same division as Alabama and LSU. Auburn might sneak into a CFP or two, but routinely dominating the SEC West after winning at least nine games just once in the past six years is unlikely.
Georgia Bulldogs
In sophomore Jacob Eason and incoming freshman Jake Fromm, Georgia will be in great hands at quarterback for the foreseeable future. The Bulldogs have also signed a ton of quality offensive linemen to protect those arms. But is that enough to consistently win the SEC East and subsequently beat the likes of Alabama, LSU and Auburn in the SEC championship game? Georgia's next four years should be better than its last four, but expecting a dynasty might be a bit much.
7. Clemson Tigers
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Building Blocks
In the process of winning at least 10 games in each of the past six seasons, Clemson has consistently had at least two great receiving options. The Tigers have eight wide receivers and two tight ends on NFL rosters, each of which was drafted in 2012 or later. And though questions abound at both QB and RB for the upcoming season, they remain in fantastic shape at wide receiver in the form of juniors Deon Cain, Hunter Renfrow and Ray-Ray McCloud.
The Tigers are also headed for an enviable quarterback controversy. Hunter Johnson was one of their top signees this year and could be the starting QB as a true freshman. But they have already signed No. 1 overall recruit Trevor Lawrence in next year's class, who should become their primary passer through 2020. Factor in the quality freshmen and sophomores they have at wide receiver and the Tigers ought to have one heck of a passing game for the next four years.
Biggest Obstacles
The sheer amount of talent and leadership that Clemson lost from last season might be too much to overcome. All told, the Tigers lost 10 starters, and it wouldn't be difficult to make the case that they were the 10 most important players on the roster.
In addition to the dilemma of trying to replace both Deshaun Watson and Wayne Gallman, Clemson's biggest concern might be at defensive back. They lost leading ball hawks Cordrea Tankersley and Jadar Johnson, and they will be losing Ryan Carter after this year.
Likelihood of a Dynasty
The Tigers were decimated by departures following the 2016 season, but they should be one of the most intact teams after this year, as they only have three projected starters who are seniors. The upcoming season will likely be a bit of an adventure compared to back-to-back 14-win seasons, but Clemson could be back on top of the ACC beginning in 2018.
6. LSU Tigers
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Building Blocks
LSU has been producing quality defensive backs like a factory over the past decade, and that doesn't figure to end any time soon. Projected starting cornerbacks Kevin Toliver and Donte Jackson were both 5-star recruits in 2015. Saivion Smith, Kristian Fulton and Eric Monroe were top-60 guys in last year's class. And the Tigers added top-100 guys Jacoby Stevens, Kary Vincent Jr. and Todd Harris to their secondary this past February. Add it all up and they should be solid at defending the pass for a while.
The offensive line should also be a strength for the Tigers for the next few years. Starting left tackle K.J. Malone is the only O-lineman they'll be losing as a graduate following the 2017 season, as they are loaded with young, talented big men. Incoming freshmen Austin Deculus, Saahdiq Charles and Edward Ingram should have plenty of time to develop before they're even needed.
Biggest Obstacles
The quarterback situation isn't great, but that hasn't stopped LSU from succeeding in the past. The bigger concern is what happens at running back if and when Derrius Guice declares for the NFL draft after the upcoming season.
LSU did not sign a running back in 2016, does not yet have one in 2018 and only signed 3-star Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this year's class. Aside from him, the only running backs expected to be on the roster in 2018 are Lanard Fournette and Nick Brossette, who had a combined 13 carries against FBS opponents last year.
Likelihood of a Dynasty
In spite of the coaching drama over the past few seasons, LSU just keeps bringing in at least half a dozen top-100 recruits every year. That pipeline of talent ensures the Tigers have the pieces to do something special on an annual basis. But given the current six-game losing streak against Alabama, we're not exactly holding our breath for multiple undefeated seasons for LSU in the next four years.
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5. Michigan Wolverines
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Building Blocks
Michigan had one of the best defensive lines in the nation last season, but it should be even more dominant a year or two from now. The Wolverines will have both Rashan Gary and Aubrey Solomon for at least two more seasons. The former was the No. 1 overall recruit in 2016 while the latter was rated as the third-best defensive lineman in this year's class. They also signed four other top-300 D-linemen this year, giving them the pieces to be nasty in the defensive trenches.
The maize and blue is in great shape at running back, too. Chris Evans ran for more than 600 yards last year as a true freshman, and Kareem Walker could be special if his academic issues are permanently in the rear-view mirror. With both of those guys expected to be available at least through the 2018 season, the Wolverines should have a fierce, two-headed backfield attack.
Biggest Obstacles
This team has a ton of holes to plug, especially in the secondary. All four starters from last year graduated without much waiting in the wings to replace them. Young guys like David Long and LaVert Hill could eventually become stars, but the Wolverines don't have a single returning defensive back who had more than 15 tackles or one pass defended in 2016.
Receiving options are also a question mark with Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and Jake Butt out of the picture. Incoming freshman Donovan Peoples-Jones is the face of the future at wide receiver for Michigan, but their returning leader in receptions is fullback Khalid Hill with 16 catches.
Likelihood of a Dynasty
Michigan lost 17 starters from last season, yet it is still expected to be one of 10 or so teams legitimately vying for a spot in this year's CFP. With Jim Harbaugh running the show, they don't believe in rebuilding years in Ann Arbor anymore. But even if the Wolverines fall short of the 2017 Big Ten title, they're building toward something special, given their return to national prominence on the recruiting trail.
4. Florida State Seminoles
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Building Blocks
Despite losing Dalvin Cook, Florida State's running back depth is out of control. The Seminoles have Jacques Patrick and Amir Rasul as returnees who should be significant contributors. In this year's recruiting class, they added Cam Akers—who may well be the starter before the end of this season—as well as Khalan Laborn and Zaquandre White. And they already have three running backs committed in next year's class.
The 'Noles should also be great at stopping the run. Four of the top eight guys in their 2016 class were defensive linemen, and they doubled down on that strength by adding 5-stars Marvin Wilson and Joshua Kaindoh a few months ago. If you could find a prop bet on which team will have the widest gap between rushing yards gained and allowed for the next four seasons, the smart money would be on Florida State.
Biggest Obstacles
While the Seminoles have about a dozen options at running back, wide receivers are few and far between. Auden Tate and Nyqwan Murray could be acceptable leaders at the position for the next year or two, but then what? Are sophomore Keith Gavin and incoming freshman D.J. Matthews going to be able to carry this receiving corps in the future?
Offensive line also remains a concern for this team. Deondre Francois took an awful lot of hits last season, and the next man up if he goes down is anybody's guess.
Likelihood of a Dynasty
If nothing else, the timing is right. Clemson has had a great run over the past five years, but there's a clear window for Florida State to seize the title of "ACC team to beat" after all the Tigers lost this offseason. And as long as Jimbo Fisher keeps reeling in 5-star recruits, the 'Noles could hang onto that title for a while.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
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Building Blocks
Until Nick Saban decides to swoop in and start signing studs in next year's class, it's clear that Ohio State has done the best job of recruiting for 2016-18. The Buckeyes had the No. 2 class last year, No. 4 class this year and currently have the No. 3 class for next year, all according to Scout. They are the only team to rank top five all three years, giving them one heck of an overall foundation for the future.
The sturdiest of those building blocks is the defensive line. The Buckeyes might have the best run defense in the country this year, and they are loaded for upcoming seasons with Nick Bosa, Jonathon Cooper, Chase Young, Haskell Garrett, Taron Vincent and Brenton Cox at their disposal.
All six of those guys rank(ed) top 60 overall in their class and top six at their position—and not one of them is a projected starter for this season. Good luck running against this team at any point in the next several years.
Biggest Obstacles
In due time, Ohio State could have the best secondary in the nation once again. Urban Meyer signed four of the top 14 cornerbacks in this year's crop of high school recruits, as well as JUCO star Kendall Sheffield and highly touted safety Isaiah Pryor.
However, after losing three defensive backs as first-round picks, the Buckeyes could have some issues defending the pass this year. And with both Penn State and Michigan vying for a national championship from the same Big Ten division, even the slightest deficiency could keep them out of the CFP picture.
Likelihood of a Dynasty
In what is arguably the toughest division in college football, there is no room for error. Heck, the Buckeyes went 14-2 in Big Ten play over the past two years and didn't earn a spot in the conference championship game either year.
Even though they should have the best roster in the Big Ten for the foreseeable future, consistently reaching the CFP is anything but a given. Of the teams in this conference, though, Ohio State seems to be the safest bet to dominate for the next four years.
2. USC Trojans
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Building Blocks
Even with Sam Darnold all but guaranteed to leave for the NFL after this season, the Trojans are already in good shape for the future with 2018 5-star QB Matt Corral committed to the program. And with that position set, USC can continue to focus on the advantage it has over every other school in the country: speed.
The Trojans usually recruit well at the conventional speed positions—running back, wide receiver, defensive back and edge-rusher—but they have also made it a point to target the multi-talented high school players listed as "athletes." Jack Jones, Michael Pittman, Trevon Sidney and Greg Johnson should all be pivotal, flexible pieces of this system over the next several years.
Biggest Obstacles
The Trojans lost three starters on their offensive line from last year and figure to lose at least two more when the 2017 season ends. It didn't help matters when their top OL recruit in the 2016 class (E.J. Price) opted to leave the team just days after rumors began to circulate about a physical altercation with head coach Clay Helton, per ESPN.com. Though they appear to have their quarterback situation figured out through 2020, can they keep their QBs off the ground?
Likelihood of a Dynasty
With all due respect to the rest of the Pac-12, if not USC, then whom? In addition to expectations of being the best team in the conference in the upcoming season, the Trojans were the only Pac-12 team to produce a top-16 recruiting class this year, finishing in fifth place, according to Scout. They also already have the strongest 2018 class among Pac-12 teams.
If anything, the gap between USC and the rest of this conference should only expand in the next couple of years. The only question is whether winning the Pac-12 will be enough for a spot in the CFP semifinals every year. Regardless, don't count on this team losing many games in the next four years.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
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Building Blocks
After four consecutive years with either the best or second-best recruiting class in the nation, there is more than enough talented depth on this roster to carry the Crimson Tide for years to come.
At quarterback, they have at least two more years of Jalen Hurts, likely to be followed by two years of Tua Tagovailoa. At running back, they have five guys who would be starters at most other schools. This includes incoming freshman Najee Harris, who ought to keep Alabama dominant in the backfield through 2019. And let's just say Nick Saban should continue to have one of the best defenses in the nation, considering the plethora of 5-star defenders he has signed in recent years.
Biggest Obstacles
Internally, the only significant question mark for the future is at wide receiver. If Calvin Ridley declares for the draft after this season, they will likely need to replace their entire starting receiving corps. Bringing in freshmen Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs will help in the long run, but WR might be a weakness next year.
But Alabama's biggest obstacle to three CFP appearances in the next four years is life in the SEC. Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M all figure to challenge for first place in the SEC West for the next few years. But even if we assume Alabama will continue to win the division, it will still have to contend with either Florida or Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Crimson Tide cannot afford to ease off the gas pedal at any point in the next four years.
Likelihood of a Dynasty
Considering they have won at least a dozen games in seven of the past nine years, it would be foolish to bet against the Crimson Tide finishing in the top four in the eyes of college football's selection committee any time soon. Competition will be stiff, but what else is new? Alabama should remain the team to beat for at least the rest of this decade.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Sports Reference and cfbstats.com. Recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com.
Kerry Miller covers college football and college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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