NCAA Tournament Bracket 2017: Updated Predictions for Round of 64

Heart-stopping buzzer beaters, thrilling upsets, Cinderella fairy tales and extended work lunches—the opening Thursday and Friday of the NCAA tournament has a bit of everything.

The 2017 edition of the Big Dance has finally arrived, and the next two days figure to be loaded with those upsets and memorable moments that put the Madness in March for sports fans. That will likely result in plenty of busted brackets, but it is not too late for some last-minute tips and predictions.

With that in mind, here is a look at predictions for the full slate of first-round games and a breakdown of a few notable upset picks.

Bracket

First-Round Schedule and Predictions

Matchup	Time (ET)	Predicted Winner
Thursday, March 16
(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) Princeton	12:15 p.m.	Notre Dame
(5) Virginia vs. (12) UNC Wilmington	12:40 p.m.	UNC Wilmington
(4) Butler vs. (13) Winthrop	1:30 p.m.	Butler
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) South Dakota State	2 p.m.	Gonzaga
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) Bucknell	2:45 p.m.	West Virginia
(4) Florida vs. (13) East Tennessee State	3:10 p.m.	Florida
(5) Minnesota vs. (12) Middle Tennessee	4 p.m.	Minnesota
(8) Northwestern vs. (9) Vanderbilt	4:30 p.m.	Vanderbilt
(6) Maryland vs. (11) Xavier	6:50 p.m.	Maryland
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Mount St. Mary's	7:10 p.m.	Villanova
(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) VCU	7:20 p.m.	Saint Mary's
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Vermont	7:27 p.m.	Purdue
(3) Florida State vs. (14) Florida Gulf Coast	9:20 p.m.	Florida State
(8) Wisconsin vs. (9) Virginia Tech	9:40 p.m.	Wisconsin
(2) Arizona vs. (15) North Dakota	9:50 p.m.	Arizona
(5) Iowa State vs. (12) Nevada	9:57 p.m.	Iowa State
Friday, March 17
(7) Michigan vs. (10) Oklahoma State	12:15 p.m.	Oklahoma State
(3) Baylor vs. (14) New Mexico State	12:40 p.m.	Baylor
(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Seton Hall	1:30 p.m.	Arkansas
(3) Oregon vs. (14) Iona	2 p.m.	Oregon
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Jacksonville State	2:45 p.m.	Louisville
(6) SMU vs. (11) USC	3:10 p.m.	SMU
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Texas Southern	4 p.m.	North Carolina
(6) Creighton vs. (11) Rhode Island	4:30 p.m.	Rhode Island
(1) Kansas vs. (16) UC Davis	6:50 p.m.	Kansas
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Wichita State	7:10 p.m.	Wichita State
(2) Duke vs. (15) Troy	7:20 p.m.	Duke
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Kansas State	7:27 p.m.	Kansas State
(8) Miami vs. (9) Michigan State	9:20 p.m.	Michigan State
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) Northern Kentucky	9:40 p.m.	Kentucky
(7) South Carolina vs. (10) Marquette	9:50 p.m.	South Carolina
(3) UCLA vs. (14) Kent State	9:57 p.m.	UCLA

Notable Upset Picks

(12) UNC Wilmington over (5) Virginia

Picking a No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed is a study of college basketball history. According to Daniel Wilco of NCAA.com, at least one No. 12 seed has won a first-round game in 28 of the last 32 years. What's more, the average margin when Nos. 5 and 12 square off is a mere 4.5 points.

This year's No. 12 upset will be UNC Wilmington over Virginia.

The first thing that stands out about the Cavaliers is their tempo, which ranks 351st in the country in Ken Pomeroy's pace-adjusted stats.

UNC Wilmington boasts the efficient offense necessary to combat the limited number of possessions Virginia's slower style forces. The Seahawks rank 18th in Pomeroy's pace-adjusted offensive numbers, so efficiency shouldn't be a problem. They feature a balanced attack with C.J. Bryce, Chris Flemmings, Denzel Ingram and Devontae Cacok all averaging more than 12 points per game this season.

Ingram (36.6 percent), Flemmings (35.8 percent) and Ambrose Mosley (40.5 percent) can get hot from three, and all it may take is one of them hitting a few to create separation down the stretch of what should be a close game if the history of Nos. 12 vs. 5 games is any indication.

What's more, Cacok can battle Virginia down low for the boards, maximizing the number of possessions the Seahawks get on Thursday.

The Seahawks will have fewer possessions against Virginia than they are accustomed to, but their offense is talented enough to adjust.

(11) Rhode Island over (6) Creighton

Creighton was a legitimate Final Four contender this season before Maurice Watson Jr. suffered a season-ending ACL tear. That leaves the Bluejays vulnerable to an upset, and red-hot Rhode Island will seize the opportunity.

Rob Dauster of NBC Sports listed this game in his upsets-that-can-happen category: "The Rams are playing some of their best basketball of the season and are arguably more talented than Creighton, whose seed is partly a result of what they did with Mo Watson on the roster earlier this year."

The Rams are winners of eight in a row and 14 of their last 17, and they prevailed in the Atlantic 10 championship game over fellow tournament team VCU. They also beat Cincinnati, lost to Dayton by a combined four points in two head-to-head meetings and hung with Duke early in the season before losing by 10.

Rhode Island will continue its hot streak against a Creighton team that will struggle on the boards.

According to NCAA.com, Creighton's rebounding margin was minus-one this season, which put them at an abysmal 235th in the nation as of Wednesday. The Rams' combination of Kuran Iverson and Hassan Martin should be able to control the boards and limit the Bluejays to just one shot attempt against Pomeroy's 32nd-best defense.

(11) Kansas State over (6) Cincinnati

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Keith Lipscomb of ESPN.com noted a team has advanced from the First Four to at least the round of 32 every season since the First Four started in 2011, and Kansas State will keep that streak rolling this year.

Much like Virginia, Cincinnati prefers to slow the game down and win with superior physicality and playmaking in the half court. The Bearcats are 327th in Pomeroy's tempo rankings and will look to dictate pace against Kansas State.

Unlike many tournament teams, the Wildcats are perfectly comfortable playing at that level at 265th in Pomeroy's tempo rankings. They won't be playing outside their typical style, which will be a welcome change after facing Wake Forest and its 56th-quickest tempo in Tuesday's First Four game.

Kansas State head coach Bruce Weber discussed his team's versatility ahead of the Cincinnati clash, per Marcus Hartman of the Dayton Daily News: "We've played physical teams. We've played teams that go up and down, Kansas. So we can adjust. And it won't be easy but I know our guys will come ready to play."

Cincinnati used its tempo to finish with an impressive 29-5 record, but it is not nearly as battle tested as the Wildcats.

Pomeroy has the Bearcats at 35th on offense and ninth on defense, while the Wildcats check in at 42nd on offense and 31st on defense. Those numbers are not drastically different for someone looking for a feasible upset, and Kansas State's rankings came against the 16th strength of schedule rating compared to 83rd for Cincinnati.

The Bearcats played a few notable nonconference games, losing to Rhode Island and Butler but beating Iowa State by one in overtime, but nobody outside of SMU inspires in the American Athletic Conference. 

By comparison, Kansas State has prepared for the tournament battling the likes of Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor and others in the Big 12 and will prevail in the pressure-packed tournament environment.

*All Ken Pomeroy numbers are courtesy of his website KenPom.com. They are all as of Wednesday at 10:30 p.m. ET.