March Madness 2017 Bracket: Latest Picks, Odds Advice Before Thursday's Round 1

Is there any other event for which people take more pleasure in being wrong than the NCAA tournament? 

People spend loads of time researching teams, building brackets and, in some cases, putting their hard-earned cash on the line. And then, in one brilliant moment, a Cinderella team hits a game-winning shot, ruining millions of brackets around the country, but even the people in agony are nonetheless also in ecstasy.

When it comes to the drama and unpredictability of the NCAA tournament, being wrong just feels so right.

But in case you would still like to be mostly right, I've provided my tournament picks and a look at some of the odds for the top contenders for you to compare and contrast against your own bracket. May your wins be plentiful and your losses enjoyable.

Regional	Round of 64 Winners	Round of 32 Winners	Sweet 16 Winners	Elite Eight Winner
East	No. 1 Villanova, No. 8 Wisconsin, No. 5 Virginia, No. 4 Florida, No. 6 SMU, No. 3 Baylor, No. 10 Marquette, No. 2 Duke	No. 1 Villanova, No. 5 Virginia, No. 3 Baylor, No. 2 Duke	No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Duke	No. 1 Villanova
West	No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 9 Vanderbilt, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 4 West Virginia, No. 6 Maryland, No. 3 Florida State, No. 7 Saint Mary's, No. 2 Arizona	No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 3 Florida State, No. 2 Arizona	No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 2 Arizona	No. 2 Arizona
Midwest	No. 1 Kansas, No. 8 Miami, No. 12 Nevada, No. 4 Purdue, No. 6 Creighton, No. 14 Iona, No. 7 Michigan, No. 2 Louisville	No. 1 Kansas, No. 4 Purdue, No. 6 Creighton, No. 2 Louisville	No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Louisville	No. 1 Kansas
South	No. 1 North Carolina, No. 9 Seton Hall, No. 12 Middle Tennessee State, No. 4 Butler, No. 11 Kansas State, No. 3 UCLA, No. 10 Wichita State, No. 2 Kentucky	No. 1 North Carolina, No. 12 Middle Tennessee State, No. 3 UCLA, No. 2 Kentucky	No. 1 North Carolina, No. 2 Kentucky	No. 2 Kentucky

Matchup	Prediction
National Championship	Prediction
No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 2 Arizona	No. 1 Villanova
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Kentucky	No. 1 Kansas
No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 1 Kansas	No. 1 Villanova

Bracket

Analysis

Lance King/Getty Images

To start, here are the characteristics I look for when projecting a national champion.

• Teams with strong offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom.com.
• Strong guard play. 
• Some veteran leadership.
• Coach with a history of deep tournament runs.
• And finally, my gut feeling about a team after watching them play.

The only team that met the criteria this year was Villanova. 

If I were going on my gut feeling alone, I would pick Duke to beat Kansas for the title. But here's where the criteria comes into play.

Duke checks every box except the first one, as the Blue Devils ranked 38th in KenPom.com's defensive efficiency and No. 13 in adjusted net efficiency. As ESPN Stats & Information noted, that isn't a good sign for the Blue Devils:

"

During the past 15 seasons, dominance throughout the regular season has been important as 12 of these 15 champions have ranked in the top six of KenPom's adjusted net efficiency entering the NCAA tournament. The only teams that didn’t were the 2011 and 2014 UConn outliers, and Melo's 2003 Syracuse squad. Eight of these eventual champs were in the top 3 of adjusted net efficiency.

"

It's not as favorable for Kansas, either, though the Jayhawks won't have to run into the defending champions. Duke will. Since Villanova, Duke and Kansas are my top three teams to win the title—the latter only fails to check off the efficiency box—I still see the Jayhawks advancing to the championship game.

But one team I like given the criteria above—and the team I think is fourth-most likely to win a title—is Kentucky. They are fourth in net efficiency, have arguably the best backcourt duo in the nation in De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk, are peppered with experienced players and are led by a great coach in John Calipari. 

But in terms of the eye test, Kentucky never looked like the best team in the nation, whereas Villanova still relies on a lot of players from last year's championship team and is so tough to beat when consistently hitting from the perimeter. The Wildcats are an excellent defensive team, disciplined, well-balanced and led by Josh Hart, who can take over games on his own, and Jalen Brunson, who steers the ship at point guard.

For my money, there are eight teams that could win the title this year, presented below in order of most likely to least likely:

1. Villanova
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. Kentucky
5. North Carolina
6. Arizona
7. Louisville
8. UCLA

Sorry, Gonzaga: I'm just not seeing it. That isn't to say Gonzaga can't win a national title—they obviously are talented—but it's hard to believe in a team that wasn't tested against top competition this year and in a program that has a habit of coming up short. 

Some folks might think North Carolina is a bit low on the list. I have two concerns with the Tar Heels: I never was terribly impressed watching them this year, and I'm not sure they can survive Joel Berry II having an off night or getting into foul trouble.

The Tar Heels check every box for me except for the gut feeling, which could well be proved wrong here. If North Carolina escapes a tough South Regional or even wins this tournament, I won't be surprised. I just think a few more teams are more likely to accomplish the feat.

Those are my thoughts. But where does Vegas stand?

Team	Odds
Duke	6-1
North Carolina	6-1
Villanova	15-2
Kansas	8-1
Kentucky	17-2
Gonzaga	10-1
Arizona	12-1
UCLA	12-1
Louisville	16-1
Oregon	18-1
Florida State	25-1
West Virginia	25-1

Both Kentucky and Arizona are good bangs for your buck, as both are feasible championship contenders but will also pay out better than teams like Duke, North Carolina and Villanova. Louisville, at 16-1, is another contender at a great value. Never underestimate Rick Pitino in March.

This year feels like a good one to trust the chalk, at least more so than in years past. There are a lot of good teams atop college basketball, and I'm not sure there are a ton of mid-majors or sleepers capable of cracking that list.

If you pick one, Wichita State has become the popular choice. I wouldn't blame you for picking them to go on a deep run, even in a tough region. But ultimately, the amount of talent spread between the top contenders will carry this year's tournament.