The Most Overrated and Underrated NFL Free Agents Still Available

The new league year started last Thursday for the NFL at 4 p.m. ET. After roughly five days of free-agent signings, there are still plenty of big-name free agents on the open market.

Big names don't always have the talent to match. Sometimes teams, such as the New Orleans Saints, ruin their cap situations after big-name free agents don't pan out. If you look at the league from a wide lens, you can see who those candidates are, and some of them are still waiting for their next contracts.

On the flip side, though, some guys were clearly top-20 players at their positions and still need franchises to play for next season. That doesn't change their talent level, though, and the markets for certain positions can play a factor.

Follow us as we try to sift through the hidden gems and fool's gold in the 2017 class.

Underrated: Dont'a Hightower, LB

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Frankly, it's shocking that linebacker Dont'a Hightower is still on the free-agency market. Talents like him typically don't last past the first two days of the new league year.

The 2012 first-round pick linebacker made his first Pro Bowl last season, though he didn't play because of a scheduling conflict with Super Bowl LI. The New England Patriots traded linebacker Jamie Collins, who was also in a contract season, to the Cleveland Browns in October, but they had a clear totem pole at the position in 2016. And Hightower was higher on it.

Collins has since signed a long-term deal with the Browns and is the sixth-highest-paid outside linebacker on an average salary basis, according to Spotrac. Just about everyone in the know, including CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora, expects Hightower to re-sign with the Patriots for about $10 million per year. That's $2.5 million short of Collins' average yearly mark.

While Cleveland has salary-cap money to burn and is in need of talent, Hightower was the better linebacker between the two in New England and will likely be paid $10 million less than Collins on his new contract.

As a top-10 free agent in this class, he's still on the market almost a week into the new year. Underrated.

Overrated: Adrian Peterson, RB

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Adrian Peterson recovered from an ACL tear to rush for a league-leading 1,485 yards in 2015, but he's not that guy anymore. You may think he is some level of superhuman, but even a superhuman can fall to the hands of injury and time.

Last year, Peterson started three games for the Minnesota Vikings and averaged 1.9 yards per carry when he was healthy enough to stay on the field. And that was after a slow ending to his 2015 regular season.

The Vikings selected Jerick McKinnon at No. 96 overall in the 2014 class. While a third-round pick doesn't seem like much, remember that the NFL recently went through a historical stretch of not drafting running backs in the first round.

At the time, a top-100 pick was a large investment behind the aging running back. Peterson is a street free agent, meaning he won't count against anyone's compensatory pick projections.

He still doesn't have a job.

At some point, you have to call it how it is. Peterson is a 31-year-old player at a position that doesn't treat those over 30 kindly. He's also injury-prone, has had fumble issues and doesn't contribute much on third down.

Television networks will try to sell you on him by showing him doing offseason workouts, but don't buy the big-name hype. Running drills in the offseason is far different than play speed, and there's no way to know at this point if Peterson can get back to his athletic peak or stay healthy for a full campaign.

Overrated: Dontari Poe, NT

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Dontari Poe is one of the more athletic nose tackles the NFL has seen in a decade. In terms of success in the league, the combine and draft position, Poe and Haloti Ngata are in their own class in recent memory.

Poe was a raw 2012 first-round pick out of Memphis, and the Kansas City Chiefs spent plenty of time investing in his refinement. If you want to say allowing him to walk was a waste of assets and coaching—similar to how the Browns failed to re-sign quarterback-turned-receiver Terrelle Pryor—I'm not going to argue the point.

That said, the Chiefs didn't rotate out Poe nearly as often as other nose tackles leaguewide, and that could speed up the aging process for a guy listed at 346 pounds. Along the same line of thinking, Poe hasn't been the same since his mid-contract back injury. According to ESPN.com's Ed Werder, that's why the Baltimore Ravens' Brandon Williams was the top nose tackle on the market.

The position isn't a premier one in the first place, and though Poe can generate some pressure, based on his recent history, he should be taking a prove-it deal instead of signing a five-year contract worth more than $10 million a year like Williams.

At 26 years old, however, Poe likely wants his first mega-contract in the NFL. This is why the two sides aren't seeing eye-to-eye.

Underrated: Jay Cutler, QB

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In 2015, Jay Cutler set a career-high passer rating of 92.3 on the season. Under offensive coordinator Adam Gase, who worked with Peyton Manning in Denver, Cutler was able to limit his risk-taking on first and second downs. The signal-caller was allowed to make plays with his arm in compromised situations, though.

Gase went from Broncos offensive coordinator to Bears OC to Miami Dolphins head coach in about two calendar years.

If you look at two of the best young offensive minds in the league, they have the same background: Save the strong-armed, risk-taking quarterback by running the Manning offense on first and second down.

In Detroit, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has turned Matthew Stafford's career around. By this time next season, Cooter may be an NFL head coach and Stafford (an unrestricted free agent in 2018) the highest-paid player in the league. Stafford has posted his two highest completion percentages and two of his three best passer ratings under Cooter.

Cutler may not be efficient outside of that type of offense, but there are two notable examples of a Manning-style offensive system turning around a quarterback when it's on schedule.

If some offensive coordinator can buy into that line of thinking, Cutler will be a lot more valuable than Mike Glennon, who the Bears signed to replace him.

Overrated: Darrelle Revis, CB

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The New York Jets signed Darrelle Revis to come back home after a season each in Tampa Bay and New England as a mercenary cornerback at levels not seen since Deion Sanders in his prime. The start of the reunion was great, but in 2016, Revis was picked on early and often in the Jets' man-heavy scheme.

His on-field play, along with an arrest in his college town of Pittsburgh earlier this offseason, led New York to release him.

According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the offset language in Revis' contract means any team that pays him less than $6 million in 2017 will recover cap space. Basically, the 31-year-old needs to sign for more than $6 million to gain any money by playing this upcoming campaign.

Revis has loved the money game over his career. Based on 2016, it'd be understandable if he didn't love football anymore. Florio said Revis is looking for a contract over $8 million, which would place him among the top 21 cornerbacks in the NFL, according to Spotrac.

That's just not reflective of reality.

Revis may not be a starting-caliber cornerback—a top-64 player at his position—which means his average salary should be less than a fourth of his asking price. Revis may not be on the field in 2017.

Underrated: Johnathan Hankins, NT

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The nose tackle market has shaped up oddly this offseason.

Brandon Williams re-signed with the Ravens on Thursday for five years and $52.5 million, and that set the top end of the nose tackle market. But plenty of money had already been used leaguewide by that point.

Now, there seems to be somewhat of a staring contest between former Kansas City Chief Dontari Poe and former New York Giant Johnathan Hankins.

Poe is a former Pro Bowl nose tackle but is coming off some down years after a back injury. Hankins  transitioned from nose tackle to under tackle last season when Damon "Snacks" Harrison came over to the Giants from the Jets.

It's hard to see who will sign first. But there's so much talk from the national media on Poe relative to Hankins, who should have been considered a top-20 free agent in this class from the start, that it seems Hankins will be signing for significantly less than Williams did.

This is despite the fact Hankins is four years younger than Williams and a more versatile player.

Hankins is a 2013 second-round pick who started every game he played over the last three years (42 total, including the postseason).

That's about as flawless a resume as you could ask for from a 24-year-old interior lineman.

Overrated: Eddie Lacy, RB

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Editor's update: Eddie Lacy has signed with the Seattle Seahawks on a one-year, $5.55 million contract, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

The Green Bay Packers drafted Eddie Lacy as a 2013 second-round pick. Green Bay typically doesn't invest much at running back but had a bare cupboard at the position. The Alabama product made a Pro Bowl in his rookie season and was named AP Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The honeymoon period didn't last long, though, as questions regarding Lacy's weight popped up prior to the 2015 season. In 2013, he recorded 18.9 carries and 78.5 yards per game and scored 11 touchdowns over 15 contests. In 2015, he recorded 12.5 carries and 50.5 yards per contest and scored three touchdowns over 15 games.

The team didn't trust the running back down the stretch, which led to a P90X workout plan in the offseason.

Lacy didn't show enough to prove he was back to his old self and missed most of 2016—a concern for a contract-year player who had his toe fused at Alabama. And his future with the team only became more destabilized when the Packers traded for Knile Davis (whom they promptly released), signed Christine Michael and transitioned Ty Montgomery from receiver to running back, where Montgomery projects to start in 2017.

Lacy's weight has made him an unstable projection moving forward. At running back, weight and injury issues can derail a player's career in weeks, let alone seasons. For someone whose love of the game has been questioned before, that's a perfect storm for losing a truckload of money after a poor contract year.

Underrated: Morris Claiborne, CB

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It's not often you can get top-10 talents on discounts. That's the situation a team might find itself in with Morris Claiborne.

Claiborne was a top-10 pick in the 2012 draft and took some time to develop, but he was a standout for the Dallas Cowboys in 2015 and had high expectations heading into his contract season of 2016. Unfortunately, injuries hurt him last campaign, as he played only seven games.

The last time everyone saw Claiborne, though, he was as talented on the field as Trumaine Johnson, who the Los Angeles Rams franchise-tagged. For example, Pro Football Focus listed Morris Claiborne as one of their top-10 cornerbacks in the 2016 season, while Johnson didn't crack the top 25. Gil Brandt of NFL.com also noted that Claiborne had one of the best burn rates in the NFL last season.

In order to land a massive deal, the cornerback may have to sign a prove-it deal, but that gives a team a chance to re-sign him before anyone else on the market in 2018.

Claiborne turned 27 at the beginning of February, so it's not ideal for him to be playing on a one-year contract at a speed position. But some team is going to be happy with the signing in September should he recover well from his injuries.