
NFL Free Agents: Grades for Day 3 Signings
There are some years when the second wave of free agency can be difficult to define and know exactly when it arrived. Then there are years like 2017, when multiple low-risk, high-reward contracts were handed out in Day 3.
Often those signings are retrospectively thought of as the steals of free agency. That future is easy to imagine even right now because of the minimal commitment and possible maximum return with, say, wide receiver Kendall Wright rekindling his early-career form on a one-year deal. Or veteran breakout linebacker Lorenzo Alexander continuing to do a lot while being paid little because of his age.
Every salary-cap dollar is still precious, even with the cap rising significantly each year. The second tier of free agency is where the gems are found, and those dollars are stretched the furthest.
Let's dive in and assess the bargain-bin diving of Day 3.
Lorenzo Alexander Re-Signs with the Buffalo Bills
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Two-year contract worth $9 million, with $4.1 million guaranteed [NFL Network's Ian Rapoport]
In 2016, Buffalo Bills outside linebacker Lorenzo Alexander stared down the daunting foe known as time and loudly said "NOPE."
At the age of 33, he spent much of the season leading the league in sacks. He eventually finished tied for third with 12.5 quarterback takedowns. That placed him only one sack behind 27-year-old Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller and three behind Vic Beasley of the Atlanta Falcons, who finished with 15.5 sacks and is nearly a decade younger than Alexander.
But his success couldn't be cast aside as one fluke year from an aging player. Alexander was a special teams ace for much of his career with the Washington Redskins and didn't receive consistent defensive playing time until 2016. In 2015 with the Oakland Raiders, for example, Alexander was given only 44 snaps.
So though he turns 34 in May, he hasn't accumulated the typical physical wear on his body. But age will always keep a free-agency price tag low regardless, which is why Alexander was the ideal bargain signing for the Bills.
There are recent precedents for pass-rushers at or around Alexander's age remaining highly productive. Julius Peppers recorded 7.5 sacks in a rotational role at the age of 36 in 2016. And in 2013, a 35-year-old John Abraham finished with 11.5 sacks.
Alexander has never played on the level of those two. But really, it's difficult to know what to expect from an underutilized talent who should be in the twilight of his career and isn't only because he was either injured or overlooked on his way to logging a total of just nine sacks prior to 2016.
If he matches his 2016 production going forward, the Bills will be drowning in found money. If he gets even halfway to those 12.5 sacks, they'll gladly take that, too. And if he suddenly turns into a pumpkin again, the risk in guaranteed money is minimal at worst.
Grade: A
J.J. Wilcox Signs with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Two-year contract, worth up to $8.5 million [Brandon George of the Dallas Morning News]
The expected exodus from the Dallas Cowboys secondary continues. Between J.J. Wilcox and Barry Church, they've now lost two safeties, with cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne also likely to depart as free agents. Such is life as one of the most cap-crunched teams entering the new league year.
In this case, the Cowboys' loss is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' gain, though a modest one at best. Wilcox can often play like a bull with poor vision, aiming to hit everything in front of him while ignoring the concept of angles in coverage.
He was targeted in coverage 28 times during the 2016 season, according to Pro Football Focus, and gave up 22 receptions. However, he wasn't burned deep often and allowed an average of only 7.3 yards on those catches. He also recorded six passes defensed and 49 tackles, which is impressive production against both the run and pass considering Wilcox started only four games for the Cowboys.
So there's some optimism to be found in the recent growth of a safety who's still young at the age of 26. But it takes a bit of squinting to see Wilcox improving. During a 13-start year in 2015, he totaled only six defensive stops and received a -10.7 rating from PFF.
Which is why the Bucs inked him to the standard low-risk contract. They haven't made a crippling commitment if Wilcox's deficiencies are exposed as a regular starter again.
Grade: B
Lawrence Guy to the New England Patriots
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Four-year contract, worth up to $20 million [Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com]
The New England Patriots are making it easy for their legion of haters to keep hating.
They've loaded up for another championship run by signing one of the marquee free agents available in cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Then they made their offense even more terrifying by trading for wide receiver Brandin Cooks. They've also re-signed defensive end Alan Branch and safety Duron Harmon and pulled off trades for tight end Dwayne Allen and defensive end Kony Ealy.
And now they've acquired another depth piece in an effort to make sure a quality front seven keeps chugging right along without a hiccup. The Patriots signed defensive end Lawrence Guy, who is a more traditional offseason add for Bill Belichick in that he fills a specific role, and will likely do it both effectively and cheaply.
The same could have been said about defensive ends Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard in 2016, and they've both moved in free agency. Guy is a soon-to-be 27-year-old veteran who has logged 5.5 sacks over the past two seasons. He's primarily used as an early-down run stuffer, though, and in that role he notched 17 defensive stops for the Baltimore Ravens in 2016 while playing only 46.4 percent of their defensive snaps, per PFF.
That should be his assignment again, and he'll march merrily along as yet another Patriots player who can excel in a very specific way.
Grade: A-
Earl Watford Signs with the Jacksonville Jaguars
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Two-year contract, worth up to $6 million [Rapoport]
If the Jacksonville Jaguars intend to give quarterback Blake Bortles one last chance to avoid the first-round bust graveyard, then they need to throw as many offensive line darts at the wall as possible to make sure he has a fair shot.
Most of Bortles' awfulness has been of his own doing. But a constantly leaky line that's led to 140 sacks taken in only three NFL seasons hasn't exactly helped matters.
Earl Watford definitely is another dart heaved blindly. He's also a depth option, which is about the nicest thing anyone could possibly say about him as a player.
The 26-year-old has been a replacement-level guard at best. He started 10 games in 2016 for the Arizona Cardinals and needed only 788 snaps to give up eight sacks, per PFF. He offers experience to an offensive line group desperately in need of it and can play multiple positions if needed.
But the Jaguars' work isn't done along the O-line yet. Here's hoping it isn't, at least.
Grade: C
Domata Peko and Zach Kerr Sign with the Denver Broncos
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Both signed to two-year deals; Peko's is worth $7.5 million, with $3.8 million guaranteed [Mike Klis of 9News]
The Denver Broncos' run defense resembled a hunk of Styrofoam in 2016 instead of the sturdy wall it was just one year earlier. Something had to be done fast, and preferably at an affordable cost because the Broncos entered Saturday with $25.8 million in cap room.
Peko certainly has the cheap part covered, as 32-year-old defensive tackles generally won't empty your pockets. Same for Kerr, who is almost strictly run-stuffing beef and played only 323 snaps for the Indianapolis Colts in 2016, per PFF.
But can either of them be effective?
Broncos general manager John Elway has essentially purchased two defensive line lottery tickets here. And as Klis also noted, he added 650 pounds of human along the defensive line, a unit that was too often bullied in 2016 while giving up an average of 130.3 rushing yards per game. That was up drastically from 83.6 yards in 2015.
Peko is the more significant signing, and the hulking nose tackle will replace the departed Sylvester Williams. The problem is that the 2011-2014 version of Peko likely isn't coming back.
It would be nice if the Broncos could find that guy out there somehow, as Peko recorded 50 or more tackles in four straight seasons then. But he's declined now, as is expected when a lineman approaches his mid-30s. He finished 2016 with only 18 defensive stops, per PFF, which was a nosedive from his 30 stops at the peak of that high-level play in 2012.
Grade for both Peko and Kerr: C
Lance Kendricks Signs with the Green Bay Packers
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Failing to fully capitalize on prime years from an all-universe passer is never a good way to do business, and the Green Bay Packers haven't quite been able to clear that final hump and get back to another Super Bowl since the 2010 season.
So now for the second straight day, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been given an athletic and looming downfield target, with the Packers assembling the pieces for dual tight end chaos. First it was Martellus Bennett on Friday, and now he's been paired with Lance Kendricks.
Kendricks has largely disappointed after entering the league as a second-round pick in 2011. But in fairness, he spent six seasons dealing with the St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams' annual mess at quarterback.
That included a 2016 season when he received passes first from an embarrassingly inept Case Keenum, and then from a woefully underdeveloped Jared Goff. And Kendricks still finished with a respectable 499 receiving yards, the second-highest single-season total of his career.
He'll slide in as both quality depth behind Bennett and another mismatch-creating outlet that allows Rodgers to spread the ball around while stinging defenses in many ways. I hear he likes to do that.
Grade: A
Darren Fells to the Detroit Lions
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One-year deal, worth $1.5 million [Mike Garafolo of NFL Network]
Some signings lack a bit of, um, sex appeal. In fact, many in Day 3 of free agency and beyond come with little sizzle as the bargain shopping aisle is explored
But there's a purpose to the Detroit Lions' signing of tight end Darren Fells, and a simple one. He'll be another addition to help fix a sluggish rushing offense.
Fells is a converted 30-year-old basketball player who has a nearly nonexistent presence as a pass-catcher. He's reeled in only 40 receptions for 536 yards and four touchdowns over three seasons.
But at a mountainous 6'7" and 281 pounds, he's another large body who's proven to be a capable blocker. The Lions already signed tackle Ricky Wagner to inject life into a rushing offense that averaged only 3.7 yards per carry in 2016, and every added ounce of blocking muscle counts.
Grade: B-
Texans Re-Sign Ryan Griffin
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Three-year deal [John McClain of the Houston Chronicle]
The secondary tight end market continued to be drained Saturday night when Ryan Griffin re-signed with the Houston Texans. It's a signing rooted in familiarity and a team wanting to keep a depth piece who can contribute in multiple ways.
Griffin established himself in 2016 as a pass-catcher capable of piling up chunk yardage after the catch when he's given in the ball in open space. He finished the season with 50 receptions, which exceeded his combined total over the previous three years. And his 442 receiving yards also far surpassed his previous single-season career high of 251 yards in 2015.
He'll still be behind C.J. Fiedorowicz on the depth chart, which means Houston will enter the season with two tight ends who had 400-plus receiving yards in 2016. That'll play nicely in an era when deploying dual threats at tight end has become trendy.
Grade: A
Marcus Cooper to the Chicago Bears
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Three-year deal [Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune]
When they signed cornerback Prince Amukamara, the Chicago Bears took one step toward improving a secondary that was solid in 2016 but still didn't generate enough turnovers.
They took other swings at the top of the cornerback market by pursuing A.J. Bouye and Stephon Gilmore. But on Day 3 of free agency, Marcus Cooper was a fine consolation prize.
The Bears had the league's seventh-ranked pass defense in 2016, but they finished the year with only eight interceptions. They were missing a defensive back who has turnover-creating instincts and can gift his offense with quality field position, coming through in clutch moments.
Cooper has the potential to be that guy after he recorded a career high four interceptions in 2016 with the Arizona Cardinals. However, he was often roasted while playing opposite Patrick Peterson. Cooper had five games where he gave up 70-plus yards in coverage, per PFF.
Maybe the better version of Cooper will come back when he's not targeted so often as Peterson's failed wingman. That's the sort of wishcasting teams do in the second tier of free agency, with the Bears now hoping the Cooper who had 18 passes defensed in 2013 returns.
Grade: B
Kendall Wright to the Chicago Bears
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One-year deal, worth up to $4 million [Adam Caplan of ESPN]
It seems like a long, long time ago in NFL years, but there was a time when Kendall Wright had the look, feel and production of a rising young receiver. That came way back in 2013, when the now-27-year-old hauled in 94 passes for 1,079 yards. It was just his second NFL season after being a first-round pick.
What's happened to him since then? First, Wright's growth stagnated, and then it stopped entirely when he fell down the Tennessee Titans' depth chart. In fact, he fell so far that he was benched several times during his final season in Tennessee.
But there's still explosive athletic potential hidden somewhere in Wright, the kind he flashed often early in his career. And he's still young, with plenty of prime years remaining if he can find his form again with a new organization.
That's what Chicago is hoping for after Alshon Jeffery walked as a high-priced free agent. Wright entered free agency as the ideal candidate for a one-year flier, and the Bears badly needed to plug youthful promise into their wide receiver depth chart. It was a perfect match.
Grade: A
Bills Re-Sign Jordan Mills
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Two-year deal, worth $4 million [Adam Schefter of ESPN]
Let's try to say something positive about Jordan Mills and the Buffalo Bills' decision to keep employing him as a right tackle.
Well, there's value in continuity on the offensive line, especially one that helped to produce the best rushing offense in 2016. And...yeah, that's about it.
Mills allowed eight sacks and a whopping 46 hurries in 2016, per PFF. As a pass-blocker, he offered the resistance of a gentle breeze, which is why this signing should only be viewed as a way to retain familiar depth.
Grade: D
New York Giants Sign D.J. Fluker
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One-year, $3 million deal [Garafolo, Kimberly A. Martin, Newsday]
There's always value in versatility, especially in a barren market for offensive linemen. Which is what made D.J. Fluker appealing.
Well, that and his age are why he finds himself with the New York Giants now. Fluker will turn 26 years old on Monday, so although he's underachieved as a first-round pick, there's still reason to hope some of that draft pedigree remains. This made Fluker another ideal candidate for a one-year dice roll.
At worst, he'll provide quality depth and position flexibility as a swingman. Fluker has experience playing both guard and tackle, and the Giants may favor deploying him in the former role as an upgrade over John Jerry at right tackle.
Grade: B+
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