
2017 NFL Free Agency: Best Potential Bargain at Every Offensive Position
Welcome, NFL teams. Take a seat around the table. I'm your adviser, Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report Financial. I know you want to invest in some veteran professional football players to upgrade your respective teams, but not all of you have a lot of money to spend.
OK, some of you are actually flush with salary cap space. San Francisco, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New England, Washington and Jacksonville can all leave the room. We'll chat later about the advantages that come with being responsible with your cap space. Or better yet, the Patriots can run that tutorial for you guys in the lobby.
Stick around, Cleveland, because you've got that whole "Moneyball" thing going on, and I'm pretty sure you'll be looking for bargains regardless of the fact you have more cap space than the rest of the teams in this room.
Everybody else, listen up. Especially you, Dallas, New York Jets, Kansas City and Philadelphia. You guys need to pay special attention to these recommendations, or you won't have a chance to sign anybody this spring. Take those headphones off, Jerry. Put your phone away, Ambassador Johnson.
I've done some digging, and I've identified several offensive investments that might prove to be extremely lucrative for you guys. See, I have this really unique strategy which I came up with all on my own. It's really complex, but I'll summarize it with four words: Buy low, sell high.
Here are my recommended low buys at every offensive position, along with some alternatives.
Quarterback
1 of 7
Geno Smith, New York Jets
If Kirk Cousins of the Redskins hits the open market, he'll become the most buzzed-about free agent of the offseason. And A.J. McCarron could receive plenty of interest as a restricted free agent in Cincinnati. You'll also hear plenty about Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick if indeed any of those veteran starters become available.
But right now, the impending unrestricted free agent not named Cousins with the most potential is actually Smith.
I know, I know. Dude has more career interceptions (36) than touchdowns (28), and he's thrown just 56 passes the last two years. But he's only 26, and he has shown flashes when healthy.
It's easy to forget that Smith was viewed as the New York Jets' starter before breaking his jaw prior to the 2015 season. And there were signs he was coming around.
During the final four games in 2014, the then-second-year signal-caller completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 1,001 yards, also posting six touchdowns, two interceptions, a 9.2 yards-per-attempt average and a 105.3 passer rating.
To boot, Smith was tied for the league lead with five completions of 40 yards or more, and only three quarterbacks completed more 20-yard passes in that four-game sample.
I know it's only four games and it was more than two years ago. I know Smith faces questions regarding his durability and his consistency. By no means should he be viewed as a locked-in Week 1 starter. But he should come cheap on the open market, and he certainly has the ability to surprise you in a summer quarterback competition.
Few quarterbacks hit the open market. If Smith does, it'll be worth it for a quarterback-needy team to take a flier.
Other potential bargains: Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns; Matt Barkley, Chicago Bears
Running Back
2 of 7
Rex Burkhead, Cincinnati Bengals
You'll hear a lot about Le'Veon Bell and Latavius Murray, but there are several strong under-the-radar running backs primed to hit the free-agent market. And none are further under the radar than Burkhead, who started just one game in his first four years with the Bengals.
That one start, though, was his last. And it was quite strong.
In week 17 this past season, Burkhead totaled 144 yards from scrimmage on 29 touches, along with two touchdowns (doubling his career total), against the Baltimore Ravens' No. 5-rated run defense.
That might not be enough to convince you that the former sixth-round pick out of Nebraska is ready to become an elite, every-down back, but Burkhead quietly averaged a solid 4.6 yards per carry on 74 attempts in 2016. He's only 26, and because he was largely ignored by the Bengals the last four seasons, he has plenty of tread on his tires.
His resume isn't loaded enough for him to earn a lucrative long-term deal, which could make Burkhead a cheap option as at least a platoon option.
Other potential bargains: Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers; Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wide Receiver
3 of 7
Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills
While everybody fawns over Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Terrelle Pryor, teams looking to save some dough on a high-upside wideout would be smart to consider Woods, who hasn't yet lived up to expectations but made some strides in 2016.
The 2013 second-round pick caught a career-high 67.1 percent of the passes thrown his way in his fourth season, finishing the year with 51 receptions for 613 yards as the No. 2 (sometimes No. 3) receiving option in a run-oriented offense.
Those dynamics cost him red-zone opportunities (he scored just one touchdown), but Woods has the ability to build on his repertoire in the right spot. And it's important to keep in mind that he's only 24 years old.
Woods showed us exactly what he's capable of with a 10-catch, 162-yard performance against one of the league's best defenses in Seattle in November. He probably made some cash that night, but he's still overshadowed by guys like Jeffery, Jackson and Pryor, and his career stats won't give him too much bargaining power on the open market.
Other potential bargains: Kenny Britt, Los Angeles Rams; Jeremy Kerley, San Francisco 49ers
Tight End
4 of 7
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
Martellus Bennett is right. Super Bowl winners are often overpaid, and he'll likely benefit from that as the top tight end slated to hit free agency in March. A lot of attention will be paid to Bennett, as well as veterans Jordan Cameron and Jared Cook, but Doyle might be the next-best option at the tight end position.
At the very least, the man is bloody efficient. Sign him and you know you're getting somebody extremely reliable. In fact, Doyle caught 78.7 percent of the passes thrown his way in 2016, which was the highest rate in the last quarter-century among wide receivers or tight ends that were targeted at least 75 times.
The 26-year-old isn't a major deep threat, but that'll at least save suitors some money. He's a heck of a security blanket anyway, and 2016 was no fluke. He didn't play as much in the previous two seasons, but Doyle still caught a ridiculous 83 percent of the passes thrown his way in those two campaigns.
Other potential bargains: Ryan Griffin, Houston Texans; Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks
Offensive Tackle
5 of 7
Matt Kalil, Minnesota Vikings
Andrew Whitworth is clearly the most accomplished offensive tackle slated to hit the open market, but the reality is Kalil might be more talented. After all, he was a No. 4 overall pick in 2012 for a reason, and the 27-year-old appeared to be making some progress before missing most of the 2016 season due to a hip injury.
Don't get me wrong, a lot of folks still view the talented former USC standout as a bust, but he did cut his sacks allowed total in half (from 12 to 6) in 2015, according to Pro Football Focus.
Kalil would be somewhat of a reclamation project, but it would be interesting to see if he could excel in a fresh setting. He's still young in tackle terms, and he didn't miss a single start in four years before going down in September.
That injury will probably bring down Kalil's price, which could make for a heck of a bargain if he were to start living up to expectations in the right environment.
Other potential bargains: Austin Pasztor, Cleveland Browns; Menelik Watson, Oakland Raiders
Guard
6 of 7
Patrick Omameh, Jacksonville Jaguars
For those who are unable to take a stab at Kevin Zeitler or T.J. Lang, there are three less-heralded guards slated to hit free agency who could provide major upgrades on a lot of NFL depth charts.
There's Ronald Leary of the Dallas Cowboys, who, according to Pro Football Focus, is coming off his best season after surrendering zero sacks on 871 snaps. On one hand, Leary could get extra love for the fact he comes from the best offensive line in football. But on the other hand, teams could devalue him if they believe his stock was padded by his All-Pro teammates along that offensive line.
There's Larry Warford of the Detroit Lions, who's been a starter for four years after being drafted in the third round in 2014. Warford doesn't grade out like Zeitler or Lang, but that'll make him cheaper, and he's coming off a strong season in which he missed only one offensive snap.
But then there's Omameh, who is much further from a household name but could have more upside. A journeyman for the first three years of his career, the 27-year-old flourished in seven starts at left guard with Jacksonville in 2016. Per PFF, he surrendered zero sacks and only 13 pressures in eight games, excelling particularly as a pass-blocker.
The Michigan product also earned positive grades as a right guard with the Chicago Bears in 2015, surrendering just two sacks in 11 games.
He missed the final six weeks of the season due to a foot injury, but if Omameh checks out medically, he could be a steal among what looks to be a relatively deep pool of free-agent guards.
Other potential bargains: Leary; Warford
Center
7 of 7
Ryan Wendell, Carolina Panthers
With the New England Patriots in 2012, Pro Football Focus graded Wendell as the best center in the AFC. He posted a negative grade just twice in 18 games that year, dominating as a run-blocker.
I can hear you through your computer. "But, Brad, that was 2012! It's been nearly half a decade!" I get it, and I understand. And that's a big reason why Wendell can be had for a bargain on the open market.
The Fresno State product has experience (49 starts in eight years) but isn't old (he'll turn 31 next month). He's versatile (he's taken plenty of snaps at left and right guard), and he's got plenty of tread on his tires (after all, he hasn't started a game in two years).
I know that last point is daunting, but we're still talking about a dude who should be in his prime and has put together a Pro Bowl-caliber season for one of the best teams in football.
Carolina signed him for less than $1 million last season, but he was coming off a right knee injury and didn't see any action. It's entirely possible he's too rusty to get his career back on track, but he does have the ability to perform as a top-tier interior offensive lineman.
So if you can't afford a guy like J.C. Tretter or A.Q. Shipley, this would be a smart investment.
Other potential bargains: Joe Hawley, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Stefen Wisniewski, Philadelphia Eagles
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