Overpaying Jason Pierre-Paul Would Be A Huge Mistake in 2017 Free Agency

Teams across the NFL are already looking ahead to the next campaign. In the National Football League, there is no offseason.

Among the first orders of business is the annual marketplace known as free agency. And among this year's top options (at least on paper) is New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.

The 28-year-old played under a one-year, $10 million contract in 2016, racking up 53 tackles and seven sacks in 12 games for a vastly improved New York defense. Those numbers, combined with the productivity of Pierre-Paul's past, have set the contract bar sky-high.

In fact, given what Pierre-Paul said in regard to his next deal, that bar needs little red lights on the end to keep planes from flying into it.

Those red lights should serve as a warning to teams from Buffalo to Seattle. If a team gives Pierre-Paul anything close to what he's looking for, it will make arguably the biggest mistake of free agency in 2017 and commit the cardinal sin of this time of year: chasing the ghosts of seasons past.

Pierre-Paul Expects to Get PAID

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After playing last year on a one-year, "prove-it" deal, Pierre-Paul made one thing clear while speaking with reporters: He's finished playing for his supper. There won't be another one-year deal in 2017.

"I'm not playing [again] on no one-year deal," he said. "I've proved it. I've showed it."

In fact, Pierre-Paul is preparing to do his best Rod Tidwell impression; it's time to show him the money.

According to Ralph Vacchiano of SNY, he wants "at least the five-year, $85 million deal [with $52.5 million guaranteed] the Giants gave Olivier Vernon."

It's possible he'll get it. The Cleveland Browns are making the switch to the 4-3 in 2017 and have over $108 million in cap space. Teams such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars have both the need for pass-rush help and the wiggle room to pull off a megadeal.

And, of course, there's the Giants, who would be hard-pressed to fit another massive deal for a defensive lineman under the cap but are equally eager to keep JPP.

But just because a team can pay Pierre-Paul over $50 million in guarantees doesn't mean it should.

The Upside Is Tempting

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There was a time, not too long ago, when the idea of Pierre-Paul's receiving a massive contract appeared a foregone conclusion.

In 2011, he turned in one of the best seasons by a defensive lineman in the last 25 years: 86 tackles and 16.5 sacks. His numbers dipped in 2012, and back surgery hampered Pierre-Paul's 2013. He was back at it in 2014, recording 77 tackles and 12.5 sacks.

His sack numbers the past two seasons dropped as a result of a fireworks accident that cost him half of the 2015 season and part of his right hand. Even then, he demonstrated a burst off the edge that few could match.

In 2016, Pierre-Paul graded out as the fifth-ranked 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus, one slot behind teammate Olivier Vernon. He ranked just outside the top 10 in both quarterback hits and hurries despite missing a quarter of the season.

Pierre-Paul insisted to Gary Myers of the New York Daily News in November that he's fully adjusted to playing with a specialized glove on his damaged hand.

"This is the new me," he said. "I got to adjust to what I'm capable of doing with my hand. I feel this is as well as I've played since my new beginning last year. I'm like a rookie all over again."

When he's healthy and on his game, Pierre-Paul is one of the most talented ends in football. He's every bit as adept at chasing down ball-carriers as he is harassing quarterbacks. And, at 28, Pierre-Paul is (in theory) in the prime of his career.

But here come the caveats...

And there are a lot.

The Downside Is Terrifying

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Let's get this out of the way: This isn't about Pierre-Paul's hand. Not entirely. Not even mostly.

It's a consideration, of course. It's inspiring what he's been able to accomplish since the accident that claimed part of his hand. And Pierre-Paul himself told Myers he's used what happened as fuel for the comeback that followed.

"I love the fact that I'm a role model to people," he said. "I get Instagrams, DMs and Twitter. It helps me play even better. That is motivation for people that can't be heard and can't be seen. I speak for them when I am out there playing."

Yet there's been nothing to indicate Pierre-Paul will ever be the player he was before that fateful day. He has eight sacks in 20 games since the injury, and 5.5 of those came in a two-week stretch against a pair of tomato cans in 2016 (Cleveland and Chicago).

That's without even considering all of the other injuries he's dealt with over his seven NFL seasons.

After playing in every game over his first three years in the league, Pierre-Paul has done so just once over the last four seasons. In addition to the hand, there's been a herniated disc in his back and a sports hernia (which required surgery) that cut his 2016 season short.

Pierre-Paul is a good defensive end. He's great in flashes here and there. But over a million bucks per game is a salary reserved for two types of players: quarterbacks and non-quarterbacks who are dominant week in and week out.

Pierre-Paul hasn't been that player since well before he hurt his hand, and paying for things that have already happened is at the top of the list of general manager no-nos.

Someone Will Pay Him Anyway

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Yet for all that downside, the odds are high some team will overpay Pierre-Paul.

If the Giants have any sense, they won't be that team. Assuming Pierre-Paul is serious about his contract demands, the best thing the G-Men can do is thank him for his service and move on. Locking up over $30 million in average annual salary in their defensive ends is a surefire way to ensure Eli Manning plays in exactly two Super Bowls in his career.

Now, if the market for Pierre-Paul's services isn't as robust as he hopes and the Giants can bring him back in the ballpark of what they paid him last year on a shorter-term contract (two or three years), it's a different story altogether. At $10-12 million a season, Pierre-Paul makes sense for any number of teams.

It's possible that will be the case, but it's unlikely.

As we saw with the Giants last year, the first few days of free agency can best be described as the drunken-sailor phase. Teams eager and/or desperate to make a splash or fill a need buy in a seller's market and pay through the nose.

There are too many teams that fit the bill this season.

The Browns lead the list. It's a perfect storm of need and cap space, provided Pierre-Paul is willing to give up winning for a payday. While he may not be the player he once was, his arrival would still energize a Cleveland fanbase that had nothing to cheer about in 2016.

The Buccaneers have almost $70 million in cap space and a list of offseason needs headlined by "pass-rush help." The Bucs might view Pierre-Paul as the sort of missing-piece acquisition that could put them in the playoffs in 2017.

That's only a pair of potential suitors out of 32 teams, any of which could view Pierre-Paul as a significant upgrade at a premium position. The problem is the perception of the upgrade isn't as big as the upgrade itself. At $15 million or more a season, signing Pierre-Paul only makes sense if that elite price tag brings with it elite production.

Pierre-Paul has accomplished that feat twice in seven seasons. The last time was in 2014, before his life-altering injury. Believing that at this point he's going to magically turn back the clock and recapture past glories is a huge mistake.