Super Bowl 51: Winner, Final Box Score Predictions for Patriots vs. Falcons

When ranking the hardest Super Bowls to predict, this Sunday's matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has to sit near the top.

Whereas one could simply see Tom Brady going on an incredible revenge-filled tear and blowing away the Falcons, one could also see Matt Ryan and the Falcons living up to "Greatest Show on Turf" comparisons and doing the same.

It's quite the way to finish the season, really. Many Sundays and national games were met with muted reactions this year thanks to a top-heavy league. But such an alignment has produced a fresh, interesting encounter with a Lombardi Trophy swinging in the balance.

Date	Location	Time	TV	Point Spread	Over/Under	Prediction
Feb. 5	NRG Stadium, Houston	6:30 p.m. ET	Fox	NE -3	58.5	Patriots

On one hand, the outlook says it is silly to go against the Patriots. This is a team that won three of four games without Brady this year while he served a suspension. Brady was great when he returned, of course, throwing 28 scores.

But his hogging the spotlight obscures the fact the Patriots were the most well-rounded team in football. The offense moved mostly without tight end Rob Gronkowski, and LeGarrette Blount rushed for 18 touchdowns.

The defense is perhaps the most criminally underrated aspect of this entire season. Despite trading someone such as linebacker Jamie Collins, the unit only allowed 15.6 points per game, including holding a high-octane offense such as Pittsburgh's to less than 20 points in two meetings.

Though an over-hyped narrative, it would be silly to completely overlook the revenge factor. Brady and the Patriots have a little extra motivation after the Deflategate scandal, a talking point sure to stick around the entire week leading up to the game.

Patriots owner Robert Kraft talked about the relationship with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during an interview with Gary Myers of the New York Daily News: “I don’t know if it will ever be the same, but in order to do what is best for the Patriots franchise long term, I believe it is best to compartmentalize and move on.”

If there is a time to open the compartment and use it as motivation, it's Sunday.

No such controversy surrounds the Falcons. Atlanta got it done this season behind the arm of Ryan, who put on an MVP-caliber campaign with 38 touchdowns and just seven interceptions.

He didn't just lean on Julio Jones, either, who had 1,409 yards and six scores. Both Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel surpassed 500 yards receiving, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for more than 1,500 rushing yards and 19 scores. 

Atlanta Falcons X-Factors to Disrupt Patriots Offense in Super Bowl LI

The Atlanta defense wasn't as impressive as its Super Bowl counterpart but still generated 34 sacks and 12 interceptions while helping the Falcons come up big in important games, such as beating Oakland, Denver and Green Bay while losing to Kansas City by one.

An elite offense with a defense capable of bending but never breaking while opposing offenses pass in an effort to keep pace has the Falcons on a strong tear, one best noted by ESPN Stats & Info:

So no, there isn't much separating these two when it comes to prediction time. Both offenses flaunt elite quarterbacks and interchangeable weapons capable of inflicting major damage and adaptable defenses able to respond on the fly and aren't strangers to taking cover from constant shelling.

The biggest difference comes down to one word—experience.

Whether one believes experience matters or not, it is hard to argue the Patriots don't have a lofty advantage in this area. It makes the idea of Brady and the Patriots pulling away late a reliable notion.

As such, here is a look at the projected box score:

	1	2	3	4	T
NE	7	10	7	10	34
ATL	7	10	3	7	27

In this scenario, both teams trade blows until the fourth quarter, where Brady and the experience factor surrounding him kicks in to secure a win.

This experience gap noted by Pro Football Talk is impossible to ignore:

Knowing Bill Belichick and the Patriots, the elite defense will find a way to shutter Jones and force the ball to other players. This will work fine for Atlanta at first, but when the Falcons need a big play, the inexperience will show.

Brady won't have problems late in the game. He's played tougher defenses this year, and by the fourth quarter, the Atlanta unit will have hands on hips after chasing around the New England weapons all game.

Look for the Falcons to settle for a field goal one too many times in the second half, leaving the door open for Brady to go on a late game-winning drive.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All betting information courtesy of OddsShark. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.