Aaron Sanchez Will Take Next Step from Ace Breakout to Cy Young Threat

Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard were linked, from the day in 2010 the Toronto Blue Jays drafted both in the first round. They went from the draft to rookie ball and eventually to a super-rotation at Class A Lansing in 2012.

They were linked the winter after that season, as well, because when the Blue Jays wanted Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the New York Mets, the price tag was going to include one or the other of the future aces.

The Mets chose Syndergaard and have had no reason to regret it. He helped them to a World Series appearance in 2015 and earned Cy Young votes with a brilliant 2016.

The deal worked out for them, and it worked out for Syndergaard, who embraced the big city and has to be considered among the Cy Young favorites for 2017. He won't be facing competition from his ex-teammate—but only because while Syndergaard competes for the National League Cy Young, Sanchez will do the same in the American League.

The Blue Jays right-hander is that good, and at 24, he's finally ready to begin a season with expectations but without serious restrictions. The Blue Jays went through the innings-limit dance with Sanchez late last summer, but he eventually pitched 203.2 innings if you count the postseason, so anything but ordinary caution shouldn't be a factor this time around.

"Taking the ball every fifth day is something that I see happening," Sanchez told reporters on the Blue Jays' winter tour.

Give Sanchez the ball every fifth day, and the Blue Jays could see something amazing. They already did last year.

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Check out Sanchez's numbers through the end of July, before the Jays began fiddling with his schedule to ensure he wouldn't pitch 220 or 230 innings: Sanchez was 11-1 with a 2.71 ERA in 139.1 innings at that point, comparing nicely to eventual Cy Young winner Rick Porcello (14-2, 3.47 in 135 innings) or runner-up Justin Verlander (11-6, 3.54 in 147.1 innings).

Sanchez was headed to innings numbers he'd never reached before, so there's no guarantee he could have kept it up as the workload mounted. The Blue Jays slowed his pace because of long-term health concerns, but it's also possible he would have needed a break.

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Whatever the reason, Sanchez's ERA over the final two months of the season was 3.76, more than a run higher than it had been through the end of July. He still won the AL ERA crown at 3.00 and still helped the Blue Jays to a second straight postseason appearance.

He also allowed one run on two hits in six innings against the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS, giving the Blue Jays their only win in the series and the Indians their only loss in the AL playoffs.

It's easy to see why agent Scott Boras told Toronto's Sportsnet 590 The Fan that Sanchez "has the tools to be someone who can be one of the most prominent Blue Jays in history."

Boras became part of the Sanchez story because Sanchez changed agents this winter. The initial reaction in Toronto wasn't great, with former Mets general manager Steve Phillips writing in an insider column for TSN.ca that Sanchez was now as good as gone from the Jays when he becomes a free agent after 2020.

I tend to agree more with Jeff Blair, who wrote on Sportsnet.ca the Boras-Sanchez pairing is "nothing to worry about for Jays fans." The 2020-21 offseason is still a long way away, and how Sanchez pitches over the next four years is a much bigger issue than what happens after those four years are up.

Blair did bring up the possibility Boras could pressure the Blue Jays to limit Sanchez's workload. But Boras' biggest innings-limit issues have been with pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery (Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey), who then faced large increases in workload. Sanchez has never had Tommy John, and he topped 200 innings last year.

Also, Sanchez turns 25 on July 1. He's moving into the stage of his career where he could be expected to pitch more innings. He's reaching the stage where he should be in his prime, the same as Syndergaard (who will turn 25 on Aug. 29).

The two aren't the same on the mound. Syndergaard stands 6'6", and his fastball averaged 98.16 mph in 2016, according to MLB.com's Statcast. Sanchez is a couple of inches shorter, and his fastball is a few mph slower, at 95.33. Unlike Syndergaard, whose 10.68 strikeouts per nine innings ranked fourth among qualifiers, Sanchez ranked 44th, at 7.55.

Sanchez thrived as an extreme ground-ball pitcher in 2016 (54.4 percent, according to FanGraphs). But Sanchez's strikeout percentage rose (from 16.1 percent to 20.4 percent), and his walk percentage fell (from 11.6 to 8.0).

It's just as easy to make the argument he was coming into his own in the year he turned 24 and can continue to progress this season. If last year was the breakout, this year could be the real thing, and the Blue Jays could end up with their first Cy Young winner since Roy Halladay.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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