Despite the Form Guide, Neymar Is the Most Valuable Man in Football

One of football's time-honoured maxims is that "the league table never lies." Type that into Google and quickly you'll be stumbling through betting websites that have tweaked it a little to "the form table never lies." But in this case, it does. 

After a week in which he snapped a three-month scoring drought and then sat on the bench while that other fella did his thing, Neymar has been named the world's most expensive player at €246.8 million by the CIES Football Observatory.

Even if that does sound more like a destination for a London tube stop, the organisation's methodology is rather sound.

"The statistical model through which fair prices are calculated includes multiple variables on player performance (minutes, goals, etc.) and characteristics (age, contract, etc.), as well as data on employer clubs and potential recruiting ones," states its report. 

In a football landscape increasingly centred on economics, this is a matter of value and not simply performance. Of course, to many in the terraces, "value" is nonsensical corporate speak and better left in the conference room. Like Pep Guardiola did when scornfully asking "what's tackles?", you can imagine the pint-and-industrial-language brigade with the same disdain asking "what's value?"

Traditional logic says it's about who does the most to get the ball in the back of the net. Anyone who's watched Barcelona recently will know that's not Neymar. 

Before the Brazilian stroked home his penalty against Athletic Club Bilbao last week in the Copa del Rey, team-mate Lionel Messi had scored a staggering 13 times since Neymar had last done so against Manchester City in October. 

For the youngest member of the MSN trio, this has not been the season most expected following two boom years at the Camp Nou. After netting 24 times in the league alone last term, Neymar's four goals from 14 starts this time around looks pretty shabby in comparison. 

But this isn't just about numbers. Neymar's game in 2016-17 has been less incisive and less dynamic. Part of that lies with him; part of it lies with those around him. 

After two seasons of stylistic evolution, Barcelona this season have drifted too far along the spectrum for comfort. The system—designed to maximise the damage inflicted by Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez—has become a too-extreme version of itself. 

Instead of blending the Barcelona DNA with a faster and more direct edge, it's the latter component that's taken over. As a result, possession has dropped, the midfield isn't what it was, control has been sacrificed and individualism has risen.

The loss of some of that Barcelona essence has meant the deadly trio in attack hasn't been supported by the same delivery service as before. Messi has done his bit to rectify that by dropping deeper, starting moves and finishing them; being everywhere. But the team has become overly Messi-centric as a consequence, too dependent on him to function and lacking in some of the mechanisms that created a perfect environment for others—others like Neymar.  

Then there's the personal element. At the beginning of the season, it was argued here that Neymar was entering a tricky year as football's king-in-waiting. After all, what do you do while you wait?

In another era, the Brazilian might be the game's undisputed leader, but in this one, he's not. Messi is, and his presence caps what's possible for Neymar.

Having already won everything there is to win on a team level, all that's left for the 24-year-old to achieve is the complete fulfilment of his own talent. But he can't do that, not yet. We've seen what it might look like when he dazzled for two months in Messi's absence last season, but since, the barrier to the top that is the Argentinian has returned. 

In this waiting game, personal progression is difficult. Maintaining drive, discipline and relentlessness is extremely challenging when limits are imposed upon you and when your ambition is essentially on hold. There are bound to be plateaus and troughs; the form guide says Neymar's in one of them. But the same can't be said about his value. 

It's quite remarkable (or perhaps not) that the CIES Football Observatory concluded through its algorithm that Neymar is worth €76 million more than Messi in the transfer market. Of course, having recently signed a new five-year contract matters in this respect. So does being 24 and not 29. 

"Neymar is the future," Paul Pogba told ESPN Brazil's Joao Castelo-Branco (h/t ESPN FC). "He's the present and the future. A player who makes you enjoy. You know I'm a player, but when I look at him I see him enjoy his football. This guy is the man because of his skills, it's like he's dancing. He's scoring goals, he's assisting—he plays for himself, but he also plays for everyone."

Plenty of course are dubbed "the future" and don't end up being so. But you sense Neymar definitely will be; that he represents the next—in more ways than one. 

What the data from the CIES Football Observatory didn't take into account, and what reinforces the idea of Neymar's worth in football's economic world, is the shift unfolding in the game's audience, driven by the latest generation. 

There's that advert from Virgin Media depicting young kids as the rulers. "We are the masters of entertainment, because we are seven and you are not" the line goes, and it applies to football too. 

Football's latest fans are less bothered with teams and more focused on stars. It was the number crunchers and the "I'd have him for 35 mil but not for 40" bunch who were the last to come through, but now even they're outdated. To the newest lot, leading on the pitch counts, but so too does leading off it. Never before has being culturally relevant been worth so much.

Over the weekend, as hashtags flashed around the displays at Old Trafford and as this writer attempted to explain to a loved one why Pogba is such a big deal as he temporarily took part in volleyball, the most effective tool was to point to Stormzy, Adidas and #Pogback. 

Upon Pogba's return to Manchester United, the cultural cool of the Frenchman was delivered to an appreciative audience via social media. This writer didn't completely get it, but then, at 29, he wasn't the audience. After all, being 29 on social media is like being 90 in the real world. Twitter works in dog years. 

In the CIES Football Observatory's valuations, Pogba unsurprisingly comes in at third. If they took into account his dress sense in comparison with Messi, he'd undoubtedly be second. Neymar would be even further in front than he already is.

Of course, voicing appreciation for a haircut probably still remains an unsafe practice inside the macho environment of Premier League grounds. Your dad would warn you against it, though he likely wouldn't think any of this matters, but increasingly, these are factors when your club is looking to sign players, because these guys command football's latest audience. 

Google Neymar and right at the top of the search results is his Instagram account. He's a social media sensation and a man with a music career. He's a party-goer, a celebrity figure, a fashion icon and all-round trend-setter.  

When asked ahead of last year's Olympics about his lifestyle, he said, per AS: "Why shouldn't I be able to go to a nightclub? On the field I give my all. Your question is loaded. If you were 24 years old and had won the honours that I've won, would you be different?"

He could barely have said anything to endear himself more to football's younger audience. The fact that he goes by just one name almost seems to heighten the effect and the appeal, and, despite form, only one name could top a list when it comes to value in modern football.