NFL Playoff Predictions 2017: Chris Simms' Projections for the Divisional Round

I gave Chris Draft the three magic numbers he was inching up to my center to overhear. 

Then I sat back and watched the veteran linebacker walk directly into my trap. Draft knew my "538" call from our previous meeting with the Panthers; he didn’t know I knew he knew. But I picked up on it watching a "Mic’d Up" segment on Inside the NFL, and I immediately shifted that call to counter Draft’s counter. It worked.

That level of gamesmanship is what makes football great. It’s also the common thread that binds every matchup this weekend; all four games are regular-season repeats that offer some level of tactical familiarity between coaching staffs. It’ll come down to which coach can come up with his own "538" scenario and develop the perfect strategic counterpunch.

Think about the games this weekend. In the AFC, coaching wizard Bill Belichick will try to outsmart Bill O’Brien, his assistant for five seasons and two Super Bowl runs. A similar scenario brews in the NFC, where student Dan Quinn takes on his Seahawks sensei, Pete Carroll. The two other showdowns? Regular-season rematches that pit smart-as-all-get-out coaching staffs against each other again.

Make no mistake about it: The AFC and NFC divisional rounds will be chess matches. Only the most forward-thinking teams will win.

Who’s THAT Guy?

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Prediction: Malcolm Mitchell, New England Patriots

Bill O’Brien wrote the book on New England’s use of quick underneath throws.

Stopping shifty targets like Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan will be priority No. 1. After that, getting a big cover man on Martellus Bennett. And after that—way down at the bottom—will be to deter the threat of a Tom Brady long bomb.

That’s ideal for a guy like Malcolm Mitchell. The Georgia product probably won’t need to contend with top cover corners like A.J. Bouye or Johnathan Joseph; he’ll only need to beat Quintin Demps or Andre Hal on Brady’s longer passes. Expect lots of yards on few catches.

Not This Time

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Prediction: Steelers at Chiefs

Let’s review what sunk the Chiefs in their early-season matchup in Pittsburgh, shall we?

For starters, K.C. turned the ball over like it was its job. A huge Spencer Ware fumble and a stopped 4th-and-short gave Pittsburgh too many early possessions. The Steelers also caught Marcus Peters and Eric Berry both on a rare off day. It was 22-0 just like that.

This rematch won't play out the same way. It'll be held in Arrowhead Stadium, where the crowd noise is an obvious advantage. And Kansas City's just a different team, both in ball security (plus-16 in turnover differential) and personnel use. With guys like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill starring, Kansas City won't fall far behind again.

We Must Protect This House

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Prediction: Atlanta Falcons

Want to close the Georgia Dome out in style, Atlanta Falcons?

Then serve up the loudest home-field advantage of any divisional-round team. And do it against an opponent that’s known for its own hostile playing climate.

Seattle is a team tailored to play on its own fast surface with its own screaming fans. It’s not built to operate away from CenturyLink Field, and coach Dan Quinn knows that better than most. He only coordinated the defense up there for two Super Bowl runs.

Atlanta probably has the NFL MVP playing at quarterback. Its offense has put up historic highs. Anything less than an NFC Championship berth will feel like a waste.

Must-Watch Rookies

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Prediction: Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and Keanu Neal

I couldn’t just pick one Falcons rookie difference-maker. 

So I picked all three. Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and Keanu Neal all played limited roles when we last saw a Falcons-Seahawks game. This time around, they’ll all be major players.

One trait ties all three youngsters together: blazing sideline-to-sideline speed. Jones and Campbell will use theirs to knife around Seahawks blockers and blow the running game to smithereens. Neal will use his as a Russell Wilson deterrent, coming down in the box to take his scrambles away or smothering his security blanket in Jimmy Graham.

Atlanta didn’t quite trust its rookies until after it lost to Seattle. That’s no longer the case, and Seattle better plan for all three.

Blue-Ribbon Battle

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Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

First, look at the names that’ll face off in this game.

Antonio Brown vs. Marcus Peters. Le’Veon Bell vs. Eric Berry. Justin Houston vs. Big Ben Roethlisberger. You’d be reading this up through kickoff if I listed all the playmakers.

Now consider the M.O. of both defenses. Kansas City and Pittsburgh aren’t exactly the most stringent when it comes to avoiding big plays. They rely on spectacular turnovers and sacks—the kind of eye-popping defensive plays fans love to see. 

Throw it all together and what do you get? The strong possibility of an epic AFC divisional-round shootout, speckled with top-shelf athletes who can put on a show. I can’t wait for Steelers-Chiefs this weekend. 

More Passing Yards: Russell Wilson or Matt Ryan?

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Prediction: Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns in his last bout against the Seahawks.

Round 2 should be even better for the Falcons signal-caller. I’m not sure any quarterback—Russell Wilson or otherwise—will outpass him this weekend.

Why the vote of confidence? Atlanta’s a different and more dynamic offense than the Julio Jones-centric one the Falcons deployed back in Week 6. Seattle’s defense is different, too; Earl Thomas won’t be on the back end to deter Ryan from throwing deep.

I expect Ryan and coordinator Kyle Shanahan to piece together another game plan that picks on Seattle’s secondary. Wilson and his shoddy pass protectors won’t be able to match it.

Higher Completion Percentage: Aaron Rodgers or Dak Prescott?

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Prediction: Dak Prescott

That's right—I'm picking against the greatest quarterback who ever laced 'em up.

But high completion percentages are Dak Prescott's thing, not Aaron Rodgers'. The Cowboys rookie has a killer running game at his disposal to keep his attempts low. The offense he operates in doesn't stress tough downfield throws. Rodgers isn't afforded either luxury.

The potential loss of Jordy Nelson hurts No. 12, too. No other Packers receiver is on the same level when Rodgers starts dancing behind the line. It'll take away from Rodgers' scramble-drill prowess if Nelson is not on the field.

More Receiving Yards: Antonio Brown & Eli Rogers or Travis Kelce & Tyreek Hill?

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Prediction: Antonio Brown and Eli Rogers

Tyreek Hill is used in too many places for me to confidently say he'll rack up receiving yards.

Travis Kelce is meeting his athletic equal in linebacker Ryan Shazier.

So I'll take Antonio Brown—one-third of the Steelers' dangerous triplet group. And anything his receiving buddy Eli Rogers can add is just gravy.

It might be a lot of gravy, too. Rogers probably won't draw Marcus Peters much, leaving the Chiefs to use a slower and less athletic corner in his place. That's been their weakness this season.

Also, Kansas City's stacked secondary might not play up to its potential off a first-round bye. Coordinator Todd Haley can take his chances deep in the first and second quarters and put this showdown away early. 

More Sacks: Houston or New England?

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Prediction: New England Patriots

I'd normally feel uneasy as hell picking against Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus in a sack competition.

But these are the Patriots—masters of the pregame adjustment. Rest assured they'll find some way to counter Houston's two sack artists this weekend.

Behind New England's much-improved pass-blockers, Tom Brady should be afforded more time than the average quarterback. He can help the cause of his own offensive line in two simple steps: handing the ball off to LeGarrette Blount and getting the ball out of his hands quickly otherwise.

Oh, and did I mention New England's pass rush is pretty damn good as well? Keep an eye out for up-and-comer Trey Flowers if Brock Osweiler is forced to pass a lot.

Over/Under on Ezekiel Elliott's Rushing Yards

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Line: 120

Prediction: Under

Ezekiel Elliott's stat line in the first Cowboys-Packers game is a little misleading.

Yes, he gashed the then-top-ranked run defense for 157 ground yards. And yes, he got style points in the process.

Green Bay made it easy for him to do so, though. It fell behind early thanks to a few great Dak Prescott downfield throws and was subjected to the Cowboys' clock-chewing offense late. So it run-blitzed like hell and got gashed.

It won't go down like that this time with Aaron Rodgers playing the way he is. So expect a normal, 100-yard day from the All-Pro rookie. But not much more.