Buying or Selling Each Top 10 Team as a National Championship Contender
In college basketball, the NCAA tournament is when everything comes to fruition, but right now is the hard stuff. Conference play is the crucible—the test—and fans even now are coming to understand which teams might be ready to take the bull by the horns when the snow starts to melt.
As it stands here in Week 10 of the regular season, who are the contenders and pretenders in the Associated Press Top 10? This slideshow will determine whose springtime futures we will buy and whose we will release to the open market.
10. West Virginia
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No one's suggesting West Virginia is the best team in the country after it knocked off the previous best team, Baylor, last week by a score of 89-68. The Mountaineers are still the same live-by-the-press, die-by-the-press contingent they've been for a few years now under head coach Bob Huggins.
But this year's WVU team is complementing defense with better offense, and as such, this may be a sharper, sleeker iteration of the typical Morgantown formula.
No, they're still not a group of sharpshooters, but the Mountaineers rank fifth in offensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings—the same ranking for their defense. That's a result of not only forcing turnovers (29 against the Bears and a nation-leading 24.6 per game, per NCAA.com), but also capitalizing on them with easy buckets.
After upsetting Baylor and edging Texas on the road 74-72 on Saturday, WVU is 15-2 overall and looking good. Maybe someone down the road will break that press, but until further notice—and after that beating it put on the nation's No. 1 team—that's a hard thing to bet on.
Buying
9. Florida State
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Here are Florida State's last four results:
- 60-58 win at then-No. 12 Virginia on Dec. 31
- 93-78 win against then-No. 21 Virginia Tech on Jan. 7
- 88-72 win against then-No. 7 Duke on Jan. 10
- 96-83 loss at No. 11 North Carolina on Saturday
Even with Saturday's road loss, that is still a darn good run.
The 16-2 Seminoles have had terrific guard play for a few seasons now, and that has continued this season with the backcourt Cerberus that is Dwayne Bacon, Terance Mann and the sharp-shooting Xavier Rathan-Mayes.
This season, though, the key may be a more balanced approach. Florida State is deep, with a full-bodied second unit at head coach Leonard Hamilton's disposal. Eleven players average at least 11 minutes per game for the Seminoles. They also have better size now with freshman big man Jonathan Isaac—12.1 points, a team-leading 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game—patrolling the paint.
Despite Saturday's loss, there's still a lot to like in Tallahassee.
Buying
8. Creighton
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It's hard to find a weakness with this Creighton Bluejays. At 41.3 percent, they're ninth in the nation when it comes to shooting the three, which is their stock in trade.
"We start every game saying we want to come out and cook every team," guard Maurice Watson Jr. recently told the Associated Press (h/t the Detroit News).
When the long ball isn't falling, as was the case for stretches Wednesday against Butler, the Bluejays are able to put it on the floor. Watson is the key there, as evidenced by his success around the rim that got Creighton the eventual 75-64 win over the No. 12 Bulldogs.
It almost is enough to caulk up the cracks in Creighton's game. That would be on the defensive end, where it's 63rd in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. It also appears to have had some help from the basketball gods—only Baylor has a better luck rating in the KenPom calculation than the Bluejays. With three of their next seven games coming against ranked opponents, one has to imagine that luck may not last.
Finally, add in the prolonged slump from guard Marcus Foster, who has attempted 111 three-pointers this season and is converting at a respectable 35.1 percent clip. That has fueled his position as Creighton's leading scorer (18.1 points per game), but he's in a serious tailspin. Dating back to Dec. 20, Foster is 10-of-41 behind the arc over six games for a 24.3 percent success rate. Most notable was a 2-of-11 performance against Villanova.
In the middle of the toughest stretch of its season, it's so far, so good for 17-1 Creighton. The evidence does suggest, though, that it may not be sunshine and roses forever.
Selling
7. Duke
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As Graysongate continues and with head coach Mike Krzyzewski on the sideline as he recovers from back surgery, it's hard to find an upward-facing trend on this Duke team.
Don't look now, but on the court, the Blue Devils are 2-3 in their last five. Off the court, everyone's looking.
Guard Grayson Allen recently came back from his one-game tripping suspension, but he has averaged 14.8 points per game in the four games since while receiving torrents of trash from opposing crowds.
Meanwhile, any notions of Harry Giles playing savior were dimmed by his first six games. The freshman has looked fairly steady but has yet to turn in what you might call a sparkling performance.
Now factor in that, outside of Creighton, no team in the Top 10 has a worse adjusted defensive ranking than Duke (the team sits at 35th). It can't protect the paint at all, and Amile Jefferson's injured foot isn't helping matters.
Things didn't get much easier Saturday, when Duke traveled to defensive juggernaut Louisville and fell 78-69.
Krzyzewski can't return fast enough.
Selling
6. Kentucky
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When Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox and the rest of this Kentucky squad are firing on all cylinders, they are the funnest and perhaps most formidable team in college basketball this season.
The problem is that the cylinders don't always fire.
"We still don't trust each other because guys aren't doing their job defensively, what they're supposed to do," head coach John Calipari said after a closer-than-it-should-have-been win over Vanderbilt, per the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com). "We ran gaps, we didn't switch when we needed to, we didn't talk. That lack of trust makes you look timid. If at some point this year, this team is supposed to be what everybody thinks, then we better be empowered. It better be their team."
The Wildcats will get the benefit of the doubt in this space because of their enormous talent and because trust and familiarity tend to increase over time. Sometimes, basketball isn't complicated. Give this team another month to jell, and it'll be even closer to the top, buoyed by a weak SEC schedule, as well as its own growing comfort level.
Buying
5. Gonzaga
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It's the same story for the Gonzaga Bulldogs—hot starts and lukewarm schedules.
KenPom puts Gonzaga's strength of schedule at 121st in the nation. Beat all the Pepperdines you want, but it's not going to change that number.
But does it need to? Gonzaga has beaten the only three ranked teams it's faced—Arizona, St. Mary's and Iowa State. It also is the nation's last unbeaten team of the year, holding onto that title Saturday when it pummeled No. 21 St. Mary's 79-56 to run its record to 17-0.
A balanced attack speaks to the potential for more sustainability than in seasons past. Gonzaga is third nationally in scoring margin, seventh in field-goal percentage defense, 12th in field-goal percentage and 15th in scoring offense.
As always, we'll see what happens in March, where the Bulldogs fell a bit short of expectations last season following that shocker against Syracuse. Fortunately for us, we don't have to worry about that part of it right now. The Zags look poised to cruise for as long as the regular season lasts.
Buying
4. UCLA
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Have you ever heard of this Lonzo Ball person? I know, me neither.
The eggnog is barely starting to go rancid, and he's already overexposed. Not for nothing, though. He might be the best player in college basketball. It's just that UCLA sums up to more than its star part.
Aaron Holiday might be the best sixth man in the country. Bryce Alford is the team's leading scorer with 17.8 points per contest. Its most deadly weapon, though, is three-point shooting.
Does a great distributor help that cause? Affirmative. You still need people to knock down the shots. UCLA is doing so at a hotter clip than plenty of other traditional shooting blue bloods, and it has landed it tops in the nation with a crazy 44.1 three-point shooting percentage and third nationally with 93.4 points per game.
Alford, TJ Leaf and Isaac Hamilton are at the head of that attack, combining for an average of 48.7 points per game.
Paced by 37 points from Alford, the Bruins just set a UCLA record with a 19-of-31 performance from deep in a 104-89 win over Colorado. After beating Utah on Saturday, the Bruins have won five straight since losing a nail-biter on the road to a good Oregon team, and the average margin of victory is 10.6 in those five.
UCLA is running teams out of the gym, and it's so much more than one glamour guy.
Buying
3. Villanova
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After that 25-point drubbing of Xavier, it's hard to bet against Villanova right now.
With Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and Kris Jenkins at the helm, the defending champs are experienced and dangerous. Despite faltering at Butler, the Wildcats are still 17-1 with wins over the likes of Creighton, Purdue and Notre Dame.
Like a booster rocket, the senior leadership of Hart and Jenkins is starting to kick Villanova to the next level. It starts with Hart, the player of the year candidate and the Big East's leading scorer (19.3 points per game), but it goes beyond him, too.
"An older team can do that a little bit, can start slowly and pick it up because they've been there before," head coach Jay Wright told Joe Juliano of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "When you're a younger team, it's kind of hard to recover from that. That's where our seniors bail us out."
If the recent past has taught college fans anything, it's to never count out experience.
Buying
2. Kansas
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After losing its season opener to Indiana, Kansas has ripped off 16 straight. Josh Jackson is a lottery lock, according to both NBADraft.net and DraftExpress. Senior Frank Mason III provides the veteran on-court leadership. The team sits fourth in KenPom's adjusted offensive ratings.
And yet, there may be cracks below the surface.
The same KenPom rankings have the Jayhawks at 29th on the defensive side. Only Duke and Creighton are worse among Top 10 teams. They're 125th nationally in scoring defense with 69.8 points surrendered per game.
As Rock Chalk Talk summarized, "the problems come down to basically two things: post defense, and pick- and-roll coverage." Some of the problems are related to the ongoing health and consistency problems of big man Landen Lucas, thought the softness does appear to be a team sport for KU.
That's a point of concern, especially late in the season when teams pack in and the game slows down. That makes it a game of watchful waiting for Jayhawks fans. Their explosive offensive star power appears ready to carry them through for now.
Buying
1. Baylor
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One stat tells you all you need to know: The Baylor Bears rank No. 326 in KenPom's adjusted tempo ratings. They are as slow as molasses in January.
This isn't a team equipped to play from behind. It's a big team, it defends, it rebounds. It is good at those things. That will continue.
West Virginia showed its limits when it pressed Baylor into oblivion. The Bears responded by turning the ball over 29 times and getting off 56 shots to the Mountaineers' 69.
To its credit, Baylor performed much better Saturday, taking down No. 25 Kansas State 77-68. This time, a more normal 17 turnovers dotted the box score, even as it held the Wildcats to 43 percent shooting from the floor.
And yet, that 89-68 beating, fresh off its top ranking, looms. Not everyone is West Virginia. The next few Baylor games will determine if its opponents need to be.
Selling
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